Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring

and forecasting: the case of UA and MD

Review climate-zoning and mapping of

drought risk areas in Ukraine and Dniester

river basin (Milestone 3)

Activity number 5.6

Activity Leaders: Tetiana Adamenko - Ukraine Dr. Ecaterina Kuharuk – Moldova 3rd IDMP CEE Workshop Budapest, 2 & 4 October 2014

Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and

forecasting: the case of UA and MD

Review climate-zoning and mapping of drought

risk areas in Ukraine and Dniester river basin (Milestone 3)

Activity number 5.6

Activity Leaders: Tetiana Adamenko - Ukraine Dr. Ecaterina Kuharuk – Moldova 3rd IDMP CEE Workshop Budapest, 2 & 4 October 2014

• UA: Analysis of precipitation for different seasons in real climate and standard

climatic period. annual sum of precipitation didn’t change or slightly increased. Review of the agro-climate zoning of the UA territory by using Selyaninov's hydrothermal coefficients (HTCs)

• Zoning of the territory of Ukraine in terms of soil humidity change trends (HTC based)

• Mapping of new ACZ for Ukraine territory for periods of active crops vegetation: May-September - HTC 5-9, and May-June - HTC 5-6. Data on precipitation and sum of temperatures of 180 HMStations were used.

• Comparison of indices: HTC and SPI.

• SPI was firstly applied by Ukrhydromet service for drought assessments in Ukraine due to IDMP . SPI comparison with traditional other drought indexes shown its efficiency especially for assessment of humidity in cold seasons.

• MD. Preparing of the maps for agro-climatic zoning of the Dnster river basin with identification of 10 regions on the of main climatic factors

• Preparing of the guide for farmers and maps for publishing

• Developing and comparison of the HTC and SPI indices for the Moldavian part of the Dnester basin

• Consultation meetings with rural authorities on expectations from the project and its implementation

Progress Report

Spatial HTC (ГТК) distribution for May - September periods (1961-2013)

the Dniester basin surface

constitutes 68,627 km2 and

the hydrographic basin area

is 72,100 km ². The

coordinates of the Source

are 46 ° 21'N 30 ° 14’E and

at the Mouth - 46 ° 18'13.26

"N 30 ° 16'24.19". The

difference in altitude

represents 1,000 m.

Bravicea

Briceni

Baltata

Chisinau

Cornesti

Cahul

Comrat

Camenca

Dubasari

Falesti

Leova

Soroca

Tiraspol

Stefan Voda

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

CHT = R /

0.1T>10 C

0.9

Spatial distribution of active

temperatures sums varies

between mountain and pre-

mountain territories from 800

to 26000C. Within plateau and

lowland areas they range from

2700-38000C, essentially

enlarging the spectrum of

cultivation of different crop

groups. The most significant

values (36000C- 38000C) are

recorded in the extreme

southeast of the basin. Thus,

within the plateau and lowland

areas there are 9000C and

spatial differences match

entirely with those highlighted

for the Republic of Moldova,

which can greatly influence to

the diversifying the range crop

cultivation.

Cartographic Modelling of active

air temperatures sums within the

Dniester Basin

Cartographic Modelling of

atmospheric precipitation sums

within the Dniester Basin

Cartographic

Modelling of

atmospheric

precipitation sums

within the Dniester

basin reveals that

they vary in the

territory from 300-

400mm to 700-750

mm. In most part the

plateau and plain

territories where the

sum of active

temperatures is

suitable for the

development of a

large range of crops

annual atmospheric

precipitation

constitutes 500-

550mm

One of the main indicators

of the wintering

conditions is the absolute

minimum of the

year because its values

characterize favorability

multiannual crops wintering.

Thus, in intramontane

depressions, the average of

the absolute minimum of

the year calculated for the

period 1980-2013 ranges

from-28-240C, in mountain

and pre-mountain regions it

is -23-210C, and within

plateau and plain regions

this agro-climatic index

constitutes -20-160C

Agro-climatic zoning of the territory (Republic of Moldova

and Ukraine) included within the Dniester Basin

Agro-climatic zoning of territory (Republic of Moldova and Ukraine)

included in the Dniester Basin delimits the plateau and plain

areas following agro-climatic zones or districts:

I agro-climatic zone (code 1)- is characterized in the territory by the sum of

active temperatures 2700 0C, 624mm - sum of annual atmospheric

precipitation, and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -

22,10C.

II agro-climatic zone (code 5)- is characterized in the territory by the sum of

active temperatures 2916 0C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation of

584mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -21,00C.

III agro-climatic zone (code 9)- is characterized in the territory by the sum

of active temperatures 3060 0C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation

of 567mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -20,40C.

IV agro-climatic zone (code 4)- is characterized in the territory by the sum

of active temperatures 3275 0C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation

of 535mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -19,10C.

V agro-climatic zone (code 3)- is characterized in the territory by the sum

of active temperatures 33310C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation of

525 mm 567mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -

18,80C.

Cartographic Modelling of

the Standardized Index of

Atmospheric Precipitation, in

July 2007

SPI Values Ratings SPI

0,99 < SPI <-0,99 Normal period

-1,0 < SPI < -1,49 Moderate Drought

-1,5 < SPI <-1,99 Severe Drought

SPI < -2,0 Extreme Drought

Ratings of the Standardized Index of

Atmospheric Precipitation (SPI)

Izu Values Izu Ratings

0,1-1,0 Normal period

1,1-2,0 Moderate dry period

2,1-3,0 Significant dry period

3,1-4,0 Hazardous dry period

>4,1 Exceptional dry period

Cartographic modelling of Nedealcov

Index of Dry Periods (Izu) in the year

2007

Ratings of

Nedealcov Index

of Dry Periods

(Izu)

( )

( )

V VIII

V VIII

zuIzu

X zu

As an indicator

of „dry days” is

T of the air

higher 25C)

and low relative

air humidity

(U30%).

Thus, over the territory of the Republic of Moldova the productivity of cereals (maize) and

industrial crops (sunflower) was the lowest for the last 53 years (1960-2012), namely due

to long dry period installation during the months May - August that conditioned a low

productivity of these crops. Winter wheat yield recorded in 2007 also was one of the

lowest, ranking the fourth place among the years with the lowest yields. We note that the

wheat grain in most part of the territory taken under study was extremely crumbly

Consultation meetings with local authorities

• Meetings were organized in rural localities with

representatives:

- Rural public authorities (mayors of the localities,

members of local councils etc)

- Farmers

- Civil society

- Sectoral authorities (agricultural, environmental

inspectorates, water units, forests

- International projects on development of rural

infrastructure (implemented in Moldova)

Total around 100 persons took part in regional consultation

meetings

Main goal of the consultations

• Identification of priorities and options for the adaptation

of actual practices for rural development in regard to the

climate change issues in the region and present options

for management of the droughts in order to reduce

impacts of these events on agricultural and other

sectoral activities.

Main expectations of rural authorities

1. Attraction of best EU practices on moisture

conservation under different agricultural crops,

especially for multiannual plantations.

Cooperation with relevant authorities from EU

countries on local level for common

management of droughts in order to implement

best practices and mitigate climate change

impact on social and economic development in

rural communities and farming activities.

2. Development of drought management adaptation planning program of

measures and practices for agricultural sector and other sectors of rural

economy to possible climate change in the region based on the results of

the studies performed in the Dnester region

3. Further development of local infrastructure, which could contribute to

moisture conservation: green carcasses, green agriculture, small irrigation

including the use for these purposes sewer waters from the network in

localities etc) and fertility of soils in the region.

4. Educational issues, including publishing of the guide, map of agroclimate

zonning etc and its presentation to different level of authorities and target

groups of population. Special attention was given to the opportunities for

erosion reduction as a significant tool for moisture conservation, especially

in the southern part of the country.

Main problems associated with the project development

• Poor coordination with UA part on organizing of common events with local

communities on joint drought management

• Local authorities are poor informed on mitigation of droughts and extreme

weather events in sectoral activities

• Bridging of the project outcomes with expectations of local communities and

theirs’ capacities in implementing of the results

• Resources for editing of the guide for farmers and agro-climatic zoning of

the Dnester river basin

Links with IDMP activities. Possible incorporation of achieved results from forests (activity 5.2)to the Dnester basin

Incorporation of achieved results in river basin management plans, planning documents for sectoral development.

Folow-up projects development of the Raut river management plan based on the results of IDMP in regard to climate and land management

• UA. October 2014 – March 2015: upgrading existed models for drought

related harvest loses forecast for 2 crops winter wheat and spring barley used by Ukr Hydrometcenter . The actual climatic characteristics , SPI and other drought indexes will be applied for each crop and soil-climatic zones at oblast level of Ukraine.

• Good practice preparation

• Awareness rising on IDM Planning and good practices results

• MD further upgading of existed models for main crops cultivated in Moldova with the use of indices developed in the frame of the project

• Continuation of the consultation meetings with local authorities and thus contribute to developing of drought management planning

• Rising of public awareness

• Organizing of the National Consultation event

Final output – as planned in the activity

Plans