Taming the Sprawl: Growth of a Peri-urban City and Policy

ResponseSamuel Dekolo

Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Lagos State Polytechnic, Nigeria

Leke Oduwaye & Immaculata NwokoroDepartment of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Lagos, Nigeria

city as an organismnew visions for urban life

This presentation examines the organic growth of Ikorodu, a peri-urban municipality, for a period of 40 years (1975-2015)

It uses remote sensing and GIS to determine urban spatial expansion and fractal dimension.

We also explain the use of fractal dimension to indicates sprawling and correlate it with agricultural land loss

The result of empirical study of 300 land owners to indicate the ineffective land management

Recommendation are made for sustainable urban growth without threats agriculture and food security .

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Presentation Overview

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INTRODUCTION

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The growth of cities in most developing countries is Dynamic, Diverse and Disordered –and spatially extensive. This growth, which is synonymous with sprawl occurs in peripheral areas of metropolitan regions resulting to natural resource depletion and diminution of agricultural and ecological lands.

Peri-urban towns and communities of cities often lack clear planning administration and regulation, thereby giving room for unguided growth

While several studies on the peri-urban interface have focussed on land use change and agricultural economics, empirical investigations on the drivers and policy responses to morphological processes of non-contiguous peri-urban settlements in sub-Saharan Africa remains lacking in literature.

The study identifies effect of the organic growth pattern of the city of Ikorodu in the last four decades and the response of urban planning policies to this emerging edge city.ISUF ITALY 2015

Introduction

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One of the most current global assessment of urban and peri-urban agriculture shows that 67.4 Mha (5.9%) of global croplands (i.e., irrigated and rain-fed croplands) are located within the urban extent, while 1078.7 Mha (94.1%) of the same are located within 20km distance range of the urban extents (peri-urban zone).

Nigeria’s land share of agricultural land grew from 58.4% in 1961 to 79% in 2012, while its arable land increased from 26% (236,765 km2) to 38% (350,000 km2) in the same period. However, its total population grew from 45.2 million in 1961 to 169.2 million in 2012, the hectares of arable land per person from 0.51 in 1961 to 0.21 in 2012(FAO,2015). Its Physiological density increased from 195 to 484 persons per hectare of arable land putting more pressure on land for food

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Peri-urban Lands: Why are we concerned?

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A review of the 1980-2000 Regional Plan of Lagos State indicates that only 6.55 % out of the 37.24% (133,203 ha) of the state land budgeted for agricultural land use in the plan remained in 2002 (LASG,2002).

The 133,203 hectares of land allocated to agricultural land use in the Regional Plan was located in four municipalities that were outside the contiguous Lagos metropolitan area: 59,934 hectares located in Ibeju-Lekki, 15,966.92 hectares in Badagry, 19,986.3 hectares in Epe and 18,383.5 hectares in Ikorodu (the study area).

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…Peri-urban Lands: Global to Local Trends for concern

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The study area Ikorodu, is a municipality (Local Government Area) in the outskirt of Lagos Metropolis located approximately 36km North East of Lagos between longitude 3.43o W and 3.7ow and latitude 6.68on and 6.53on north of the equator.

The Study Area : Ikorodu

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The Study Area: Ikorodu

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Its area is approximately 396.5 sq. km. Since its creation in 1968 as one of the five administrative divisions of Lagos State, Ikorodu has been known for its extensive farmlands. It houses several hectares of land acquired for farm settlements by the defunct government of Western Region of Nigeria and subsequently, approximately 180 sq. km (49%) of its landmass was zone for agricultural land use in the 1980-2000 Regional plan of Lagos State.

Vegetable Farm in Ikorodu

Fishermen at Ijede

Fish Farm Estate

Odogunyan

Rice Mill at Agbowa

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The Study Area: Ikorodu

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While farming, fishing and trading, are basic sources of livelihood of indigenes, the location of the a 1,582.27 hectares industrial estate (the largest in Nigeria) by the Lagos State Government in 1976 has also served as a major pull factor leading to population growth.

However, other pull factors include development of a light port terminal at Ipakodo, the expansion of the Lagos-Ikorodu road and the establishment of secondary and tertiary sector activities.

PZ Industry Ikorodu

Ikorodu Port

Expanded Ikorodu Road

Egbin Power Plant

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The Study Area: Ikorodu

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Since the development of the Lagos State Polytechnic and other government institutions in Ikorodu, a lot of people have been attracted to develop residential properties.

Lagos Home Ownership and Mortgage Scheme (HOMS) is a government housing initiative.

There is an aggressive drive by Private developers to build houses and sell lands

Lagos State Polytechnic

Ikorodu

Flour Mills Ikorodu near Port

Lagos HOMS Estate Igbogbo

Aggressive Private

Residential Housing

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While the population of Lagos State grew at 59.19% and the core metropolis at 52% between the 1991 and 2006 Census periods, Ikorodu had the highest growth rate surpassing the whole state put together and the core urban area, with 185.86% growth rate.

Ikorodu has a Dynamic

Demography Divisions L.G.A.

Number

Census-1963

(P1)

Census-1991

(P2)

Census-2006

(P3)

Growth

Rate (%)

(P2/P1)

Growth

Rate (%)

(P3/P2)

Lagos 5 665,346 1,213,200 1,549,042 82.34 27.68

Ikeja 8 525,767 3,046,353 4,873,924 470.46 59.99

Badagry 4 122,159 1,154,488 1,863,195 845.07 61.39

Epe 2 130,395 126,401 299,527 -3.25 136.97

Ikorodu 1 128,119* 184,674 527,917 44.12 185.86

Lagos State 20 1,571,786 5,725,116 9,113,605 264.24 59.19

Source: Adapted from Thomas(1997); NPC, 1991; NPC,2006

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Though a functional urban area, the study reveals integration with the urban core with over 40% of the residents working in the core metropolitan Lagos.

Ikorodu within the Lagos Megacity Region

Source: FGN. (2006). Report of the Presidential Committee on Redevelopment of Lagos Megacity Region. Lagos: Federal Government of Nigeria.

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Research Framework

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Urban Policies•Efficiency

•Equity•Sustainability

Urban Forms/Patterns

•Technopolis/Econopolis/

Anthropopolis•Compact/Sprawl

•Efficient use/ Inefficient use

Urban Processes

•Societal•Institutional •Individual

First, we were able to describe the emerging peri-urban form and pattern through urban change detection and pattern analysis and the relationship with agricultural land change

Second, we investigated the underlying processes contributing to the emerging form

Third, we examined the efficiency of urban planning policies in redirecting the processes and pattern of the emerging form

Modified from Daniel Sui 1998

Methodology

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Acquisition Date Satellite Number Sensor Type WRS

Path/Row UTM Zone Datum Spatial Resolution (M) Sources & Year

06/01/2015 Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS 191/55 31N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 2015

03/01/2011 Landsat 7 ETM+ 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30USGS, 2011

07/12/2006 Landsat 7 ETM+ 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 2006

06/02/2000 Landsat 7 ETM+ 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 2000

27/12/1990 Landsat 4 TM 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 1990

18/12/1984 Landsat 5 TM 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 1984

Supporting Spatial Data/Demographic Data

1976/78 Land Use/Land Cover Map FORMECU, 1978

1980 The Lagos State Regional Plan (1980-2000)Doxiadis Associates, 1980

National Population Census 1963, 1991, 2006 NPC 1991, 2006

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Data Sources for RS/GIS

Urban Form and Pattern Detection in Remote Sensing/GIS

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In this research, we adopted a 5-years interval multi-temporal analysis from multi-spectral remote sense data for available periods (1984, 1990, 2000, 2006, 2011, and 2015).

RGB composite rasters were developed from multi-spectral imageries and were further classified by means of ISODATA unsupervised algorithm in ArcGIS.

Built-up urban areas were extracted and coded black and other classes of land cover types were coded white. The classified imagery were subsequently analysed for their fractal dimensions using software known as Fractalyse (version 2.3.2).

WORKFLOW FOR CHANGE DETECTION/PATTERN ANALYSIS

Pattern Detection: Fractal Analysis

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Fractal Analysis was used to determine the morphological pattern (this has been widely used in Europe is studying peri-urbanization process).

Fractal analysis gives the description of the spatial arrangement of built-up areas as well as its quality.

Highly fragmented built-up areas representing a sprawling pattern have low fractal dimensions, while compaction and regularity will attract a higher figure.

Fractal dimensions may have figures ranging from 1 to 2 for simple geometrical objects and 0 to 2 for urban geometry similar to sierpinski carpets (Tannier & Pumain, 2005).

Source: Encarnação, S., et al., Fractal cartography of urban areas. Scientific Reports, 2012. 2: p. 527.

Fractal Analysis

The series of points obtained are represented by a Cartesian graph with the Y-axis corresponding to the number of counted element (N) and the X-axis corresponding the value of the reference element ε (ε =2.r+1).

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Radial mass method was used in Fractalyse software in which the total number of pixels or elements (N) within a counting window or reference element (ε) and radius of the circle enlarged gradually

COUNTING METHOD ESTIMATION OF ‘D’

The empirical curve of the plot is then fitted with the estimated curve; a good fit indicate fractality. however, the quality of estimation was verified by correlation coefficient.

Year Population

Population

Density per

sqkm.

Urban Area (Ha)

Annual Urban

Change Rate

Allocated Agric.

Land Change

to Urban (Ha)

Allocated Agric.

Land (Ha).

% of Allocated Agric.

Land Loss.

Agric. Land Change Dynamic Index

Fractal Dimension. (D)

a Corr. Coeff.

1975 154377 389 419.00 0.00 0 17903 0.0 0.0 0.411 172.16 0.86

1984 170535 430 2252.0

5 229.13 274 17629 1.5 1.5 0.788 108 0.98

1990 182654 461 2961.8

3 118.30 707 17196 3.9 2.5 0.924 66.07 0.99

2000 390620 985 4587.0

1 162.52 871 17032 4.9 1.0 0.933 109.5 0.98

2006 527917 1331 7506.1

2 486.52 1425 16478 8.0 3.3 1.194 34.04 0.99

2011 946722 2388 9087.4

5 316.26 2293 15609 12.8 5.3 1.308 19.15 1.00

2015

1510594 3810 13772.

101171.1

6 4615 13288 25.8 14.9 1.438 12.33 1.00ISUF ITALY 2015 19

Fractal Dimension and Agricultural Land Use Change

Source: Authors’ feild work,2015.

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The Morphological Process

1984

20152006

2000

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The Forming Process: Sprawl and Infilling

2001

20152011

2006

Peri-urbanization process in Ikorodu in the past four decades reveals dynamism in urban change as well as a sprawling development pattern.

The fractal analysis of the study area based on remote sensed imageries shows a steady organic growth, in which sprawling precedes infilling (see previous slide).

The values of fractal dimension increased steadily form the lowest 0.41 in 1975 to a low 1.44 value in 2015.

A value below 1 indicates lack of connectivity of elements in the built-up space, while values slightly above 1 indicates sprawl. The highest fractal dimension (D) value in this research is 1.44, which indicates sprawl.

The implication of this pattern is the loss of valuable agricultural land to urban development, which has great repercussions on sustainable food production and security.

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Implication of Growth Pattern

Peri-urban growth and Agricultural Land Loss

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Furthermore, in order to ascertain effect of the sprawling pattern on agricultural land, we extracted the urban extents layer in ArcGIS by intersect geoprocessing with the agricultural land zone of the Regional Plan of Lagos State of 1980.

The relationship between fractal dimension and dynamics index of agricultural change was determined by regression analysis.

Source: Authors’ Feild Work, 2015Map of Ikorodu Showing Urban Growth and Extents in Agricultural Zone (1984-2015)

The Effect of Peri-urban growth on Agricultural Land

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The regression analysis reveals that 60% of the variation in the Agricultural Land Dynamic Change Index is explained by the variable Fractal Dimension.

This indicates a strong positive correlation between fractal dimension ‘D’ and change dynamic index (CDI) for allocated agricultural land (r= 0.78 at 0.04 level of significance).

This is because the more the infilling of sprawled spaces, the more the value of the fractal dimension (D) and the more loss of peri-urban agricultural land.

Even though this pattern of growth is noticeable in most cities’ growth throughout history, in which ‘D’ increases with time, the pertinent question is how efficient is our existing regional plans?

Source: Authors’ Feild Work, 2015

Chart Showing Relationship between Fractal Dimension with Agricultural Land Dynamic Change Index

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.0

f(x) = 11.3006925492384 x − 7.2465077804033R² = 1f(x) = 11.3006925492384 x − 7.24650778040332R² = 0.602035978240058

Fractal Dim. (D) Line Fit Plot

Agric. Land Change IndexLinear (Agric. Land Change Index)Predicted Agric. Land Change IndexLinear (Predicted Agric. Land Change Index)

Dispersed-- -Fractal Dim. (D)-- -- Compact

Agric

. Lan

d D

ynam

ic C

hang

e In

dex

What are the underlying processes leading to Ikorodu’s Growth and

Policy Response?

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Urban morphology cannot be divorced from anthropogenic factors, therefore a survey was carried out among house owners across 61 communities in the 6 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) of Ikorodu to determine the motivation for their choice of residential development in Ikorodu

The result shows that less money and time spent form location, proximity to work and health reasons are the reasons for respondents’ choice to develop in Ikorodu.

Over 50% live and work in Ikorodu and 72% are non-indigenes (This indicates migration also influences peri-urban growth).

58% lived in the core metropolis of Lagos before coming to Ikorodu (indicating counter urbanisation), of which 56% lived in rented apartment before developing there own parcel. 58% lived as tenants in Ikorodu before building their own houses.

Over 70% occupied uncompleted buildings , of which 48% have now completed

On Density, we have an average of 14 persons per parcel and 0.02 per hectare.

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Preferences and Processes influencing Urban Growth

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A major challenge in developing countries is access to Title, which is not only cumbersome but almost out of reach. The Land Use Act stipulates that only the governor of the state can sign a land title, this policy is a stumbling block itself. The study shows 77% of house owners do not have a certificate of ownership, while 65% do not have building permits.

There is a lack of awareness of the planning regulations as only 39% are aware of the provisions of the regulation.

There is lack of development control or enforcement as 65% of the respondents have never been visited by inspectors during or after construction. Out of these, only 9% were served contravention notices ISUF ITALY 2015

How Effective are Planning Policies in influencing Urban Growth

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Conclusion

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This research paper has been able to examine the growth and morphology of a peri-urban city spanning a period of forty years. The result of its fractal dimension analysis indicates rapid urban change, which also correlates with the speed agricultural land loss.

The study quantified the loss of allocated agricultural land to urban growth in the study area, which has been reduced by a significant level of 25%. A trend in which if nothing is done, may threaten food security of the Lagos and its environ.

The emergence of Ikorodu as a functional urban centre with employment opportunity serves as a major underlying force attracting growth. The emerging city is already a counter-magnet for the Lagos Metropolis.

This growth has not been properly managed due to ineffective development control and poor ineffective policies that allows sprawling instead of containment. ISUF ITALY 2015

Conclusion

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Organic growth of cities should not be equated with malignant growth. Cities like every organism will grow by itself, however, every organism uses wisdom acquired over time for guided growth.

Planners in African countries should learn from their counterparts from Europe and other western countries, where there is a paradigm shift from the traditional land use planning to Spatial Planning, which investigating the interaction of different policies and practice across regional space, and sets out a strategic framework to guide future development and policy interventions, whether or not these relate to formal land use planning control

It is also suggested that the planners in developing countries should use spatial technologies like remote sensing and GIS to enable them monitor spatial growth and effectively track changes

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Recommendations and Policy Implications

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Densification and Containment

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Strategies like densification and city-containment must be upheld against the policies that encourage sprawl.

Thank You

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