Cleaner Air For Scotland

National Modelling Framework

Colin Gillespie

STEP Conference4th November 2015

Cleaner Air For Scotland· Developing the Modelling Framework· Basis of the framework· Developing the national approach· Problem solving – it’s not the model· Data and more data· Beyond a paper report· Next Steps

CAFS – Modelling & Monitoring Working Group

The Working Groups are intended to:· Provide comment on the Strategy and to provide guidance on how to progress the Strategy further towards its publication· Possibly help drive delivery of the Strategy actions beyond publication

Scope of the group – Covering the development of the National Modelling Framework, including the regional assessment process and the Modelling approach, whilst considering the wider monitoring requirements to support the Strategy. Develop the national Modelling Guidance, including the identification of data requirements for undertaking the modelling framework.

National Modelling Framework

· Regional NMF· Identify cross-regional issues – based

on land use focusing on SPAs· Local NMF

· Identify potential problem areas, causes and potential solutions

Regional NMF model

Looked at other approaches…· Based on the Netherlands approach· Regional model to assess contributions

from planned development (size dependent)

· Model updated on a regular basis · LAs provide planning information –

through regional planning/development planning

· LAs and TS provide traffic data – including planned transport projects

Learning from National Flood Risk Assessment approach…

· Engagement – success is dependent on partners working together.

· Sound Science – standard approach to gathering data, detailed modelling to support development of actions.

· Prioritisation – developing a joint decision making process between responsible bodies that prioritises actions for maximum benefits.

· Support – Scottish Government support for the proposed process (CAFS).

Local NMF Model – Using Aberdeen as our pilot study

Translate Data Information Evidence Decision

process

· The main focus is on data and not the model…

Using Problem Solving within the CAFS Strategy

· Key Points (Malcolm Sparrow Training)· Define the problem to be solved· Gather all available data/information

and analyse/visualise· Identify critical data and address

uncertainty· Turn data into information

Basis of defining areas at risk and therefore underpinning actions

Data and more data – gathering the appropriate data

Data gathering· National traffic data collection project - two-tiered approach to collecting traffic data · Identify existing data/information· Gathering additional data

Collecting different forms of traffic data will help to build the right picture, improving street-based emissions and traffic composition

Developing the national approach

Analyses and Visualise· Developed live and interactive visualisation tools through Spotfire· Initial data can be visualised – build on-line traffic profiles identifying busy roads and junctions in relation to traffic groups· Air model outputs can be scrutinised· Pull together a range of databases

Developing the national approach

Addressing uncertainties· Analysis tools are used to identify uncertainties· CFD models used to identify unique air flow issues· Additional data requirements feed in to the information loop

Beyond a paper report

Transform data/information into evidence· Provide interactive tools rather than paper-based reports· Develop scenario testing tools for developing actions· Promotes collaborative approach to problem solving· Promotes ownership of the actions developed

Next Steps· Developing national traffic data collection

programme including fleet composition and where required emissions

· Identify data and resource sharing opportunities

· Develop the interface between the NMF and the NLEF

· Strengthen the relationship between the NMF and the LAQM requirements during the review