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Potential mitigation impact of good practice policies
Side event at SB42, Bonn
5 June 2015
Hanna Fekete, NewClimate Institute
2
Approach - good practice policies
How much could global GHG emissions be reduced if all countries implemented the best policies that are already applied by some countries?
Steps:
Identify good practice policy areas
Define indicators for the quantification of the policies
Determine impact on emissions per country and globally
Where possible - Compare results to scenarios compatible with 2°
Illustration of results of good practice asSectoral indicators
Absolute economy wide emissions
4
Exemplary results – Fuel efficiency of light duty vehicles (LDVs)
Relatively homogeneous efficiency of LDVs across countries today, some deviation in future
Good practice improves efficiency especially after 2020
Current policies Good practice policiesPBL
New Climate
05
101520253035404550
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Dist
ance
trav
elle
d pe
r fue
l use
[k
m/l
]
05
101520253035404550
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Dist
ance
trav
elle
d pe
r fue
l use
[k
m/l
]
05
101520253035404550
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
WorldChinaUSIndiaBrazilRussiaJapanRest of world
05
101520253035404550
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030WorldChinaUSIndiaBrazilRussiaJapanRest of world
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Exemplary results – share of renewable electricity
Good practice accelerates renewable energy deployment
2° compatible: 35% in 2030 (median of all scenarios, IPCC 2014)
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Exemplary results – emission intensity of the electricity sector
Good practice strengthens decarbonisation trend
2° compatible: 0.16 to 0.35 kg/kWh in 2030 (IPCC 2014)
Current policies Good practice policiesPBL
New Climate
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030Emis
sion
inte
nsity
of e
lect
ricity
ge
nera
tion
[kgC
O2e
/kW
h]
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Emis
sion
inte
nsity
of e
lect
ricity
ge
nera
tion
[kgC
O2e
/kW
h]
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
World
China
US
India
Brazil
Japan
Rest of world
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030WorldChinaUSIndiaBrazilRussiaJapanRest of world
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Covered - Power supply Covered - Industry (energy related)
Covered - Transport (cars only) Covered - F-gases
Covered - Oil & gas production Covered - Buildings
Covered - LULUCF Uncovered - total rest
From sectoral indicators to global emissions
Coverage NewClimate Institute
Covered - Energy Supply Covered - Industry
Covered - Transport Covered - Buildings
Covered - AFOLU Uncovered - AFOLU
Uncovered - Transport Uncovered - Waste
Uncovered - Energy Supply Uncovered - Buildings
Uncovered - Industry Uncovered - Bunkers
Uncovered - Other
Coverage PBL
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Exemplary results - global
Global emissions
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
ons
[MtC
O2
e/a]
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
I mplemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Good practce policies
9
Remainingemissions of areas with good practice policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies
Exemplary results - global
Global emissions
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
ons
[MtC
O2
e/a]
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
I mplemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Good practce policies
10
Exemplary results - global
Total emissions and reductions by policy area – including LULUCF
Source: Own elaboration. Range of 2° pathways taken from UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2014
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
LULUCF
Promotion of electric vehicles
Efficiency standards for light duty vehicles
Efficiency standards for the building envelope
Reduction of f-gases
Promotion of energy efficiency in industry
Targets for methane reduction from oil and gas production
Reducing electricity demand from industry and buildings
Support for renewable electricity
Current policies (incl. LULUCF)
Range of 2°pathways
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GtC
O2e
/a
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Conclusions
Good practice policies in the nine analysed areas move emission trajectories significantly towards 2°
Policies in areas not analysed (35% of emissions) can lead to additional reductions
Fast implementation and broad geographical coverage are essential
Sectoral indicators valuable for analyzing direct impacts of policies
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Thank you for your attention
Contacts:
Hanna Fekete, NewClimate Institute ([email protected])
Mark Roelfsema, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ([email protected])
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Back up slides
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Exemplary results – oil and gas production
Current policies Good practice policiesPBL
New Climate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
ktCO
2e/to
e of
fuel
pro
duce
d
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
ktCO
2e/to
e of
fuel
pro
duce
d
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
World
China
US
India
Brazil
Russia
Japan
Rest of world
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
World
China
US
India
Brazil
Russia
Japan
Rest of world
Good practice changes trend in emissions intensity
Current policies Good practice policies
15
Exemplary results - China
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
ons
[MtC
O2e p
er
year]
Remaining emissions of areas with good practice policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
I mplemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
I mplemented policies
16
Exemplary results - USA
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
ons
[MtC
O2e p
er
year]
Remaining emissions of areas with good practice policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
I mplemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Good practice policies (full coverage)
Land use emissions
History
I mplemented policies
17
Exemplary results - India
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
ons
[MtC
O2e p
er
year]
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
I mplemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
I mplemented policies
Remaining emissions of areas with good practice policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies
18
Exemplary results – Brazil
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
ons
[MtC
O2e p
er
year]
Good practice policiesprojections, min/max
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
I mplemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Good practice policies (full coverage)
Land use emissions
History
I mplemented policies
Remaining emissions of areas with good practice policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies
19
Exemplary results - Japan
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
ons
[MtC
O2e p
er
year]
Remaining emissions of areas with good practice policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
I mplemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
I mplemented policies
20
Exemplary results - Russia
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
ons
[MtC
O2e p
er
year]
Implemented policy projections
LULUCF min
Series3
Only LULUCF
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
I mplemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
I mplemented policies
Remaining emissions of areas with good practice policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies
21
Exemplary results – Rest of World
-2,000
3,000
8,000
13,000
18,000
23,000
28,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Remainingemissions of areas with good practice policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
I mplemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
22
Approach – indicators per policy area 1/2
23
Approach – indicators per policy area 1/2
