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Successful Adaptation to Climate Change
Research • Framework • Applications
Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D. Susanne Moser Research & Consulting
Stanford University
NAP Expo 2015: Realizing the National Adaptation Plan process • Bonn • April 15, 2015
From Successful NAP Process to Successful Adaptation
Laying the Groundwork
Preparation
Implemen-tation
Reporting, Monitoring,
Review
A.1. Initiating NAP process
A.2.: Stocktaking
A.3.: Addressing Capacity Gaps
A.4.: Development Needs and Climate Vulnerabilities
B.1. Analysing Current & Future Climate
B.2. Assessing Climate Vuln. and Adaptation Options
B.3. Review and Appraisal of Options
B.4. Compiling, Communicating NAPs
B.5.Integrating NAP into Development, Planning
C.1. Prioritizing CCA in National Planning
C.2. Long-term Implementation Strategy
C.3. Enhancing Capacity for Planning, Implementation
C.4. Promoting Coordination and Synergy
D.1. Monitoring the NAP Process
D.2. Assess Progress, Effectiveness, Gaps
D.3. Iteratively Update NAPs
D.4. Outreach and Reporting on Progress
Source: UNFCCC (2012)
Background & Origin
Foundation #1 Foundation #2
Background Success Metrics Applications Q&A
Key Reasons to Think About Success
Overarching: Responsibility for safeguarding people, economy, infrastructure, cultural assets, environment
1. Communication and Public Engagement
– Communicating hope and desirable goal to work towards
– Defining a common vision among diverse stakeholders
2. Deliberate planning and decision-making
– Setting clear goals, aligning means and ends (internal consistency)
– Best fit with other policy goals (external consistency)
3. Justification of adaptation expenditures
4. Accountability/good governance
5. Support for learning and adaptive management
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And Good Reasons NOT to Think About Adaptation Success
• Political sensitivities • Funding sensitivities • It’s work, takes
capacity, funding…
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(“It’s too hard” is NOT a good reason!)
Successful Adaptation: Key Dimensions of an Elusive Goal
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What Does Success Look Like?
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What Does Success Look Like?
“I don’t know many churches that have to put
the tide chart on their Web site” so people know whether they can get to
church. The Rev. Jennifer Slade,
Norfolk, VA
Norfolk, VA
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What Does Success Look Like?
Photos (L,R): Andy Arms, Wikimedia Commons; CSUMB
Background Success Metrics Applications Q&A
What Does Success Look Like?
Photos (TL > BR: nature.com; nytimes.com; usbr.gov; inhabitat.com
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What Does Success Look Like?
Background Success Metrics Applications Q&A
Photos (TL >BR): azwater.gov; alohahouse.org; Irrd.blogspot.com, examiner.com
What Does Success Look Like? Background Success Metrics Applications Q&A
What Does Success Look Like?
Background Success Metrics Applications Q&A
What Does Success Look Like?
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What Does Success Look Like?
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This Raises Some Tough Questions
• How much can science help or is it all subjective and political?
• What is the right scale at which to consider success?
• How and how much do we integrate across sectors? Across scales or levels of government?
• How do we address trade-offs?
• When can we declare success (or not)?
• How should we measure success?
• Who gets to say?
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Dimensions of Adaptation Success
Adaptation Process
• Conduct a “good” assessment and planning process
• Continually monitor for adaptation needs
Adaptation Decision-Making
•Select a “good” adaptation option
•Make a “good” adaptation decision
Adaptation Outcomes
•Find adaptation outcomes to be “good”
•Avoid maladaptation
1st wave: 1990s-early 2000s 2nd wave: since IPCC AR4
Commonly discussed in the scientific literature
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“Success” in the Real World
• Washington State
• Oregon
• California
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Successful Adaptation to Climate Change on the West Coast
• Pre-workshop interviews with adaptation leaders (“practitioners”)
• Workshop with scientists and practitioners
– “Fishbowl” of case studies
– Group discussions
– In-depth exploration of issues in small groups (process, outcomes, tradeoffs)
– Evaluation
• Synthesis
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Top-Level Findings
• What is “success” depends in part on how you interpret “adaptation”
• “Success” tends to be more difficult to define than “failure”
• Many never define “success” but then have no guide. Of those that do, few begin their adaptation efforts by defining “success” but do so later on.
• Success is always multi-dimensional
• While there may be positive synergies, often “success” in one area involve trade-offs in others (across sectors, scales)
• There is no final “success” as adaptation is an evolutionary process > “progress”
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Six Key Dimensions of Adaptation Success
Adaptive Capacity • Establish enabling conditions
•Build up social, technical, human, financial etc. capacities
Adaptation Process
* Conduct the assessment and planning process “right”
* Engage in continual assessment of adaptation needs
Adaptation Decision-Making
•Select a “good” adaptation option
•Make a “good” adaptation decision
Adaptation Implementation
•Successfully implement specific adaptation actions, next step
•Set up ongoing process
Adaptation Outcomes
•Find adaptation outcomes to be “good”, or “acceptable”
•Avoid maladaptation
Adaptation Barriers • Identify and develop effective strategies to overcome barriers to adaptation
(institutional, motivational, political, financial, scientific etc.)
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What Gets Measured Gets Done (maybe)
• Some observations about metrics – Tracking progress toward meaningful
targets can serve as crucial engine for action/change
– But: • Many measures (even if required) don’t
get used • Many measures don’t tell us what we
really need to know • Ongoing, long-term monitoring is hard to
get • We don’t know how to measure key
things that matter
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See: Moser, S. (2015). http://www.scidev.net/global/climate-change/opinion/better-climate-change-adaptation-indicators.html
Some Guiding Principles about Metrics
1. Bundles of indicators
2. Purpose
3. Decision-relevance
4. Link to changing conditions
5. Test a small set
6. Develop jointly
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See: Moser, S. (2015). http://www.scidev.net/global/climate-change/opinion/better-climate-change-adaptation-indicators.html
Project Impacts to Date
• ~40 presentations
• ~3,400 local-to-national, tribal agency staff, policy- and decision-makers, utilities, private sector, NGOs, international audiences and researchers
• Example California:
– Visioning with Coastal Leadership Group (2015)
– Design of SLR Database (AB 2516) (2015)
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Follow-on Efforts • Pacific Islands Ecosystem Management & Conservation
(PICCC) – Thinking about success helped form collaborative vision,
joint strategic planning, aligned projects
• Hawaii Water Management (Pacific RISA) – Ongoing program evaluation revealed need for defining
success/”resilience”; currently underway
• Institute for Sustainable Communities (ISC) Climate Leadership Academy – Training of community leaders
• NERRS – Developing Successful Adaptation Indicators and Metrics project (local-state level) – Research project in multiple locations around US (2 in CA)
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Others Working on Adaptation & Resilience Indicators
• Globally, “M&E” work has skyrocketed in last 3 years (donors, banks, development aid agencies)
• In US, attempts to develop “adaptation indicators” or “resilience indicators” rapidly growing – NO ONE has figured this out yet – NCA: research track – Local-level: individual cities,
USDN/ISC, ND-GAIN, CDP /C40 – State-level: several states in progress – Federal-level: Reporting requirements
in response to EO 13514
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Susi Moser, Ph.D. Susanne Moser Research & Consulting and
Stanford University
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.susannemoser.com
Book available from:
http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415525008/
http://www.amazon.com/Successful-Adaptation-Climate-Change-Changing/dp/0415525004
Acknowledgments: Max Boykoff and >40 book contributors; Amy Snover, Hannah Gosnell, Steve Adams, Lara Whitely-Binder, Adina Abeles on project examining Successful Adaptation to Climate Change along the US West Coast; along with project funders (NOAA, Moore Foundation. Stanford University).
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Your Comments & Questions
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Thank you!
Contact: promundi[at]susannemoser.com
