John SykesCentre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia

Business School, The University of Western Australia

Director, Greenfields Research Ltd, United Kingdom

Email: john.sykes@research.uwa.edu.au

The tailings pond of the Baotou

rare earths mine in China; Image

by D. Kanter in Bradsher (2010)

ScenariosArts &

Humanities

Climate

John

Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the

renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

• Attended Oxford Scenarios Programme in 2014 (Ramirez et al., 2014)

• Applied scenario planning in my PhD research with the working title:

“Using scenario planning to improve the integration of geological, technical, economic,

environmental, geopolitical and socio-political factors in minerals exploration management and

strategy”

• Essentially the aim is to understand the ‘future of minerals exploration’ and ergo the ‘future

of mining’;

• Generated four sets of scenarios, which integrated the previous sets at each stage:

– One set generated in an ‘individual’ scenario planning exercise, by myself;

– One set generated by a small group of minerals-focused PhD students;

– Two sets generated by a diverse group of experienced professionals and academics across

exploration, mining, engineering, commerce, law, environmental science, technology, sustainability,

anthropology, history, etc.

• All scenarios were generated using the ‘Oxford Scenario Planning Approach’ (Ramirez &

Wilkinson, 2016) throughout 2015 and 2016, with results now emerging.

• By definition, the

only geological

resources that get

developed into

mines are both

economic and

accessible;

• Mineral explorers

are therefore

searching for

undiscovered

resources, which

will be both

economic and

accessible in the

future.

Discovered and

economic but

inaccessible

Undiscovered and

inaccessible but

economic

Discovered

accessible

but

uneconomic

Undiscovered

uneconomic

but

accessible

Geological certainty

Eco

no

mic

via

bility

Discovered

accessible

and

economic

(Behind)

Discovered but

inaccessible and

uneconomic

Undiscovered and

inaccessible and

uneconomic

Undiscovered

but

accessible

and economic

Source: Sykes et al. (2017)

• Two types of issue frustrate

access to economically desired

mineral deposits:

• Socio-political access: relating

to the sustainable development

paradigm, whereby economic

extraction can only occur if

society agrees it outweighs the

social & environmental costs;

• Geopolitical access: relating to

the strategic resources

paradigm, whereby access to

resource can be restricted due

to political or military conflict /

disagreement.

Important

uses, i.e.

‘economic

paradigm’

Accessibility type

2: Geopolitically

restricted

production, i.e.

‘strategic

resources’

paradigm

Accessibility type 1:

Environmentally / socially

restricted production, i.e.

‘sustainable resources’ paradigm

‘China produces 95% of the rare earth

metals…’

‘The problem with nuclear power is

not uranium supply but waste

disposal…’

Source: Sykes et al. (2017)

Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the

renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

• Change in the minerals sector over the long-term can be substantial and complex;

• The example of the change in the copper mining industry during the late nineteenth and

early twentieth century demonstrates this;

• During this period the copper industry switched from primarily ‘artisanal’ underground

mining in the United Kingdom, first to larger scale mining in Chile and the United States,

and then to large-scale, mechanised open pit mining in the United States;

• This switch required (Lynch, 2002; Crowson, 2012; Sykes and Trench, 2014):

– the discovery of new ore bodies (e.g. Bingham Canyon):

– mining industry technological developments, such as flotation and improved smelting techniques;

– external technological developments, such as steam power, mechanisation, and dynamite;

– non-technical changes, such as improved public infrastructure in the USA, the advent of the

corporation and major financing houses, the adoption of free trade, and the advent of the ‘forward

contract’.

• Such multi-factor driven change is unpredictable: even the best experts of the day did not

see the change coming just a few years ahead (Lynch, 2002).

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

177

5

180

0

182

5

185

0

186

0

187

0

188

0

189

0

190

0

191

0

192

0

193

0

194

0

195

0

196

0

197

0

198

0

199

0

200

0

201

0

Cu

ore

gra

de

(%

)

Cornwall (UK) Average UK Average

Michigan (USA) Average USA Average

Western World Average World Average

Change from high grade underground

mining in UK to low grade open pits in USA

Further low grade copper

mining innovations

20th century copper

mining technology,

innovation & discovery

package

Steam power

The corporation

Better work

practices

SXEW

Low cost drilling

New geographies

Regime change

Major public

infrastructure

Porphyry

geological

model

Flotation

Improved smelting

& refining

Airborne

geophysics

Computation

Globalisation

Forward contracts

Free trade

Dynamite

Mechanisation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Sh

are

of

Glo

ba

l C

u M

ine

p

rod

uc

tio

n

United Kingdom Chile USA Other “…in 1898.. Bingham Canyon… was

something of a joke… only barren quartz

rock flecked with a trace of copper. Nobody

could make money out of so little. …the

world’s most famous mining man [Chief

Engineer for the Guggenheims] turned up

his nose. It was ridiculed by the most

respected mining journal of the day. …The

shovels started… in June 1906.”

Decline of UK mining,

rise of Americas

Resurrection

of Chilean

industry

Sources: Lynch, 2002; Schodde, 2010; Crowson, 2012; various personal

communications

• The example of the change in the aluminium industry over a similar period to that of the

copper industry, further confirms the substance and complexity of long-term change in the

minerals industry:

• During a this period, the aluminium industry went from a rare ‘specialty’ metal producing a

few hundred thousand tonnes annually to a major industrial commodity, with over 50 million

tonnes of aluminium now produced annually;

• This change required (Lynch, 2002; Sykes et al., 2016):

– the discovery of new bauxite deposits in North America;

– the advent of mechanised open pit mining (as with copper) and the development of the Bayer and

Hall-Heroult processes for converting bauxite into alumina and then into aluminium;

– Strong demand drivers from the military for transportation (which used a lot of the lightweight metal);

– Similarly strong demand from the commercial sector for transportation, especially the newly invented

car, as well as for non-corrosive household goods;

– A willingness by the United States and European governments to subsidise a ‘strategic’ but

nonetheless initially loss-making industry.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

190

0

190

4

190

8

191

2

191

6

192

0

192

4

192

8

19

32

193

6

194

0

194

4

194

8

19

52

195

6

196

0

196

4

196

8

197

2

197

6

198

0

198

4

198

8

199

2

199

6

200

0

200

4

200

8

201

2

Growth in market size indices of copper and aluminium 1900-2014 (1900 = 1)

Cu Index Al Index

Bauxite discoveries in

North America

Bayer and Hall-

Heroult processes Aviation

demand

Bulk open pit mining

Source: Sykes et al. (2016)

• The complexity involved with

change in the minerals sector

means that accurate ‘prediction’ is

not possible;

• As such, mineral explorers should

focus on ‘preparing’ for the future

and asking open questions about

what may be;

• In business strategy, this is known

as a ‘scenarios’ approach;

• Geologists may be more familiar

with this approach as ‘multiple

working hypotheses’ (Chamberlin,

1890). Geological certainty

Eco

no

mic

via

bility

Discovered

accessible

reserve

Scenario

1

Scenario

2

Scenario

3

Undiscovered

accessible

reserve

Discovered Undiscovered

Source: Sykes et al. (2017)

T. C. Chamberlin

Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the

renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

• Scenarios participants were free to explore whatever subject they thought relevant to the future of

the minerals industry, as such each scenario set developed its own ‘theme’;

• The second scenarios set looked at the influence of the energy transition on the mining sector, and

the opportunities presented to the minerals sector by the energy transition;

• Three scenarios were developed along a ‘pathway to the future’ (Sykes et al., 2017):

– Discworld: Based on the Terry Pratchett novel, representing the current world, with ‘old industry’ reliant on

fossil fuels. There is an element of the unknown and not understood about this world. It may last for a few

more years, or many more, it is not clear.

– Wardrobe: Based on ‘The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe’. This is not a scenario, but represents a key

stage on the pathway to the future – a transition, but one which cannot be foreseen.

– Wonderland: Business, innovators, and entrepreneurs drive society through the energy transition in a

‘voluntary’ way. The transition is facilitated by strong, but permissive global institutions. The whole world

transitions, however, at an individual and corporate level, this is a very uncertain world, highly disruptive, and

ruthless.

– Nineteen Eighty-Four: Global conflict, and fossil fuel resource restrictions, force parts of the world (such as

the ‘West’) through the energy transition to maintain energy security. The world divides into some places

which have transitioned, and some which have not. However, at a corporate and individual level, this is a

stable, state-led world, with the minerals and renewables sectors a valuable part of the military-industrial

complex.

Wonderland

Nineteen

Eighty-Four

Left behind

High

tech

Discworld

NOW

The

Wardrobe

(An unknown

number of

economic

cycles to come)

Low tech

(Beyond

which is

the unknown)

‘Economic paradigm’

‘Sustainability paradigm’

‘Strategic paradigm’

Source: Sykes et al. (2017)

Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the

renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

• The holistic ‘big picture’ perspective taken during scenario planning, which focuses on interesting qualitative

analyses, rather than analysing factors quantitively straight away (Ramirez & Mannervik, 2016), helped create a

number of insights;

• Firstly, challenging some preconceptions and assumptions about mining in relation to sustainability and the green

economy, particularly the focus on ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ as a future raw materials supply strategy:

– For several critical commodities there is simply not enough ‘above ground’ stock, which has been previously

mined, for recycling to be a viable supply method alone;

– Developing a recycling-based or ‘circular economy’ is more challenging during a ‘transition’ as we recycle

‘products’ not ‘commodities’, for example:

• lead (an environmentally toxic metal) is currently ideal for the circular economy, as its majority use in car batteries means it

is easy to recycle around one product loop – in a future green economy it is thus a viable proposition that substantially

increased lead battery demand can be met with recycled lead supplies;

• However, the potentially important battery metal, lithium, has many existing uses, from many of which, such as ceramics

and pharmaceuticals, the metal is essentially ‘lost’ as it is used in tiny amounts, making recycling very difficult – as such in

a future green economy it is not a viable proposition that substantially increased lithium battery demand can be met via the

recycled lithium supply, and thus substantial increases in lithium mining would be required;

– Finally, landfill mining, which is where many of these critical metals have ended up, is probably as

environmentally and socially undesirable as ‘actual’ mining – metals that go into landfill are likely ‘lost’ from

the ‘above ground’ stock.

1 100 10000 1000000 100000000

GalliumIndiumLithiumCobaltSilicon

VanadiumNickel

Rare EarthsGermanium

CopperManganese

ZincSeleniumCadmium

LeadTellurium

Arsenic

Theoretical Total Available for Recycling (tonnes)

Data: USGS

-10 40 90 140

GalliumIndiumLithiumCobaltSilicon

VanadiumNickel

Rare EarthsGermanium

CopperManganese

ZincSeleniumCadmium

LeadTellurium

Arsenic

Depletion Index for Material Available for Recycling (years)

Image: Guardian (Javad Tizmaghz)

45%55%

Lead Production (2012)

Primary Secondary

Source: ILA

Image: C-Battery

37%

33%

10%

5%

5% 1% 9%

Lithium Consumption (2015)

Batteries Ceramics & Glass

Lubrication Purification

Flux Aluminium

Other (inc. pharma)

Data: USGS

• The holistic ‘big picture’ perspective taken during scenario planning (Ramirez & Wilkinson, 2016)

also surfaced that climate change mitigation is complicated by the mining industry itself, which

inadvertently creates complex feedback systems making some appropriate climate change

mitigation ‘action’ more difficult than initially hoped;

• For example, increased scale wind turbines and hybrid car motors in the ‘West’ required higher

performance rare earth magnets, which resulted in increased mining of rare earths in China – the

dominant producer (Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015);

• However, not only does Chinese rare earths mining involve problematic local environmental and

labour practices, but processing rare earths is very energy intensive, such that overall carbon

emissions are higher than using lower quality ferrite magnets on a performance-impact basis

(Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015);

• Overall, rare earth magnets not only did not deliver a better environmental outcome from the

perspective of climate change, but also added in extra difficulties relating to local environmental

and labour conditions associated with mining in China (Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015);

• Further it exposed ‘Western’ companies to geopolitical risk, as most rare earths are currently

sourced from one country – China (Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015).

Energy

transition

requires

electric

vehicles Increased

mining of

rare earths

in China

Questionable

environmental and

social impacts

Switch

back to

ferric

magnets

required?

Electric vehicles

require better

motor magnetsRare earth

magnets

are

technically

better

Source: Widmer

(2012); Widmer et

al., (2015)

Images: Bradsher

(2010); Reuters

(2015)

• Finally, the holistic ‘big picture’ perspective taken during scenario planning (Ramirez & Wilkinson,

2016) also showed that whilst the energy transition is complicated to analyse, this does not mean

change is not possible;

• In line with previous observations about change in the mining sector being driven by multiple forces

(slides 9 & 11), it is possible to see potentially similar combinations of drivers coming together in

the present mining industry:

– Firstly, health concerns associated with diesel emissions in confined underground spaces (Jacobs et al., 2015), assisted by the

recent scandal associated with diesel car emissions at Volkswagen and other major car companies (Ewing, 2015) provides a

health and safety driver for electric powered underground mining;

– This is assisted with a environmentally focused movement towards non-point source carbon emitting electric vehicles; and

improvements in battery technology allowing more competitive electric vehicle operating times and performance;

– In turn, a movement towards underground mining is being driven by improved remote and automated technology, which makes

underground mining lower cost, but also improves safety by removing people from underground;

– In addition, the discovery and depletion of surface mineral deposits (Schodde, 2014) means mining may increasingly take place

at greater depths (requiring underground techniques), whilst underground mining itself also has a more limited social and

environmental footprint in comparison to open pit surface mining;

• All of these factors, could mean that the mining industry is heading away from diesel-driven open pit

mining towards renewables driven underground mining.

Movement towards

all electric

underground mines

Focus on greenhouse

gas reduction

Health concerns

surrounding diesel

emissions in

confined spaces

Improved battery

technology

Volkswagen

NOX & SOX

emission

scandalMovement

towards

underground

mines

Focus on social &

environmental footprint

of surface mining

Fewer surface

mineral deposits

awaiting

discovery

MOVEMENT TOWARDS ALL

RENEWABLE ELECTRIC

UNDERGROUND MINING?

Improved

automation and

remote technology

Safer

underground

mines

Lower cost

underground

mines

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Surface Mine UG Mine Mill

Other

Steel

Equipment, Tyres & Parts

Explosives & Reagents

Fuel & Electricity

Labour

Sources: Schodde (2014); Ewing (2015); Jacobs et al. (2015);

Data: Infomine (2016)

Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the

renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

• The arts and humanities have played a crucial role in both interpreting the findings of the scenarios workshops and communicating

the insights effectively;

• Firstly, a series of famous books have been used as communicative tool (though originally the scenarios had a less coherent set of

names):

– Discworld, e.g. ‘The Colour of Magic’ (Pratchett, 1983);

– The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (Lewis, 1950);

– Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland (Carroll, 1865)

– Nineteen Eighty-Four (Orwell, 1949);

• These books can translate a ‘richer’ array of information more quickly, as recipients can more easily envision themselves in the

various scenarios, based on their existing knowledge of these well-read books;

• For example, for most audiences it is not required to describe the political and social structure of a ‘Nineteen Eighty-Four’ (Orwell,

1949) scenario.

• The richer information conveyed encouraged a deeper critical analysis of the scenarios, hopefully leading to better insights, in the

same way that more creative and holistic insight and debate can be generated from an analysis of Tolstoy’s ‘War and Peace’ (1869),

than from statistics on Napoleon’s failed campaign in Russia, even if the latter are both more accurate and precise.

• For example, Isaiah Berlin’s essay ‘The Hedgehog and the Fox’ (1953) which examined War and Peace and created a classification

of writers and thinkers into two types has subsequently helped inform work on foresight by Philip Tetlock (2006), Clem Sunter (Ilbury

& Sunter, 2011), and Nate Silver (2012). Analyses of the facts and figures of Napoleon's campaign in Russia generally stick to

deductive conclusions about that campaign and Europe at that period in history itself, rather than wider inductions about the world

itself.

Wonderland

Nineteen

Eighty-Four

Discworld

NO

W

The

Wardrobe

(Beyond which is

the unknown)

‘Economic paradigm’

‘Sustainability

paradigm’

‘Strategic paradigm’Images: Wikipedia; Wikipedia; Pinterest; Pinterest

OLD

ECONOMY

STRATEGIC

RESOURCES

INEQUITY

PROTECTION

ISM

BIG

MINING

ECONOMIC

PARADIGM

COAL

POWER

POLLUTION

WASTE

PETROL

CARS

BOOM &

BUSTBIG OIL

...with an unknown number

of economic cycles to come,

so you have to be good at

‘business as usual’

Images: Shutterstock; Wikipedia; Warwick University

GREEN

ECONOMY

SILICON

VALLEY

PROTECTIONISM

STRATEGIC

RESOURCES

DISRUPTIONSUSTAINABILITY

PARADIGM VOLATILITY

CETA

DEAL

INNOVATION

PARIS

AGREEMENT

GLOBALISATION TESLA

Sustainability concerns and innovation drive a

business-led energy transition across all parts

of the world

Images: Shutterstock; Pinterest; Pinterest

NEW

WORLD

STRATEGIC

RESOURCESPROTECTIONISM

STRATEGIC

RESOURCES

ISIS

OLD

WORLD

MILITARY-

INDUSTRIAL

COMPLEX

TRUMP

STRATEGIC

PARADIGM

WAR

PROTECTIONISM

PUTIN

ISIS

BREXITISISCONFLICTGREEN

ECONOMY

Geopolitics and conflict forces a

government-led energy transition

in the fossil-fuel poor parts of the

‘Western’ world

Images: Shutterstock; Pinterest; CPA

• The arts also played a crucial role in interpreting the findings of the scenarios

workshops:

• Storyline construction and analysis helped the overall understanding of the structure of

the energy transition in each scenario;

• By using, Kurt Vonnegut’s ‘Shapes of stories’ (Eilam, 2012), it was shown that one

scenario (Wonderland) was a voluntary transition, similar to a ‘creation story’, whilst the

other scenario (Nineteen Eighty-Four) was a forced transition similar to a ‘man in a hole’

storyline;

• The latter ‘man in a hole’ storyline is more popular in ‘Western’ culture (e.g. Hollywood

movies), whereas the former ‘creation’ storyline is more popular in Eastern culture

(Eilam, 2012);

• This may help explain the differing approaches to climate change mitigation in the ‘East’

and ‘West’ (i.e. the latter requires a ‘disaster’ first – we may perhaps partly explain the

recent focus on extreme weather events and climate change) and also help smooth

communication about the issue between differing cultures.

WONDERLAND NINETEEN EIGHTY-FOUR

Eastern culture? Western culture?

Images: Eilam, 2012

• The arts and story telling also helped the scenarios recipients understand the ‘evolving’ nature of

storylines, and the crucial fact that when ‘in’ a story you cannot necessarily tell which way it is

going;

• Again, by using just the ‘shapes of stories’ provided by Kurt Vonnegut (Eilam, 2012), we can see

that firstly the two scenarios and their associated transition storylines (Wonderland – creation and

Nineteen Eighty-Four – man in a hole) may only be the beginning of more complex stories, evolving

with rises and falls over time, so a simple interpretation of these scenarios as a ‘forecast’ should be

avoided;

• And, that at this stage, essentially at the beginning of the energy transition storyline it is not

possible to tell what story we are in – firstly which scenario and storyline (Wonderland – creation

and Nineteen Eighty-Four – man in a hole)? And secondly, is the storyline for each scenario even

right? Is the Nineteen Eighty-Four scenario actually a ‘bad to worse’ story line, or even a ‘Which

way is up?’ storyline (Eilam, 2012)?

• The storyline analysis, borrowed from literary criticism provides a warning not to oversimplify

scenario analysis, but also that such analysis must be constantly updated.

WO

ND

ER

LA

ND

NIN

ETEE

N E

IGH

TY

-FO

UR

Images: Eilam, 2012

• The link between stories and scenarios has been outlined by Freedman (2013); however, with some important differences:

– A story ends, whereas strategy is ongoing, best seen as a series of ongoing strategic decisions (where the next stage is likely affected by the

outcome of the current stage);

– A writer knows the whole storyline, whereas a strategist does not, and can only make interpretations as to what the storyline may be and where it

is heading;

– A writer is in control of all events in the story, whereas a strategist has to be prepared for unexpected events;

• These findings where emergent from the analysis of the scenarios using Kurt Vonnegut’s ‘shapes of stories’ (Eilam, 2012);

• Because unexpected events have to be incorporated into strategic planning, and because strategizing essentially has no end, Freedman (2013)

compares strategic planning to ‘soap opera’ rather than the three-act stories of book, film and theatre that are described by Kurt Vonnegut

(Eilam, 2012);

– Writers of a soap opera have an overall plan for the story over the current stage, but have to continually update it, periodically starting new stages

(linked to previous stages), and in addition have to incorporate interests arising from the outside world (such as a rising interest in equality

requiring a broadening character demography) as well as realities arising from within the cast (such as an actor falling ill who has to be

temporarily written out of the story).

• The balancing of ‘predict and control’ and ‘adaptive’ elements of strategy highlighted by Freedmen (2013) is described by van der Heijden (2005)

as ‘processual strategy’, with a strategic actor seeking to control parts of the ‘transactional environment’ over which they have some influence,

and adapting to issues arising from the ‘contextual environment’ which are beyond their control;

– By preparing for the unexpected (processual strategy) strategic actors can occasionally seize upon an opportunity, which aligns with their

competencies, to expand the transactional environment into the contextual environment and take control of a situation for temporary advantage

(Ramirez & van der Heijden, 2007);

– Scenario planning is a key tool for implementing processual strategy (van der Heijden, 2005; Ramirez and van der Heijden, 2007) as it allows

strategists to understand the changing nature of the contextual environment, and pursue new opportunities by adapting existing strategies or

generating new ones.

TRANSACTIONAL

ENVIRONMENT

COMPANY

CONTEXTUAL

ENVIRONMENT

Geo-politics

Finance

Commerce

EconomicsLegislation

DemographyEcology

Technology

Adapted from: Ramirez &

van der Heijden (2007)

Coronation Street;

Image: RSVP Magazine

• It was not just the arts (principally via storytelling) that played a crucial role in developing the

scenarios; the humanities, principally history, were also important;

• An understanding of history is required for an understanding of the future, though importantly this is

not in extrapolation of past to future, but in understanding the patterns of the past and the extremes

of events which can occur and remembering that such patterns and extremes could occur in the

future, along with similar, but entirely new ones (Ramirez et al., 2014);

• For example, in these scenarios the ‘Nineteen Eighty-Four’ scenario is based a number of historical

events in the twentieth century including the a world divided into three blocks (as in the Cold War)

and an energy crisis as occurred in the 1970s, but this time with the blocks divided by religion

(Huntington, 2002), rather than political ideology, following the rise of a powerful Islamic Caliphate,

based on the present-day Islamic State (ISIS);

• The kind of clustering and clashing of apparently unrelated events from the past and present to

create new future scenarios is typical of the inductive approach to scenario planning (Ramirez et

al., 2014; Ramirez & Wilkinson, 2016).

Sources: Enrich Wise; UC Davis; Stratfor

Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the

renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

• Returning to the original purpose of the scenarios workshops – to look at the future of

minerals exploration and seek new strategic options for mineral explorers, some new

opportunities were highlighted by the scenarios workshop (and re-confirmed by later

workshops):

1. Focusing on ‘new’ metals, not previously the focus of the mining industry, which may be

critical for future technologies, especially those relating to the energy transition (e.g.

renewables and battery technologies);

2. Trying to gain access to previously ‘socio-politically’ inaccessible areas, usually relating to

sustainability issues, by developing a strong social licence to operate;

3. Trying to gain access to previously ‘geopolitically’ inaccessible areas, again by developing

a strong ‘social licence to operate’;

• However, these strategies require a greater understanding of technology beyond the

mining and exploration sector, and of socio- and geopolitics, than is currently found in

the exploration sector, suggesting broader skills bases are required by mineral

explorers, and exploration teams and companies.

New

commodities

Behind socio-

political barriers

Behind geopolitical

barriers

New skills for

mineral explorers?

Images: Shutterstock

• Berlin, I., 1953. The Hedgehog and the Fox: An Essay on Tolstoy’s View of History, London: Weidenfeld &

Nicolson.

• Bradsher, K., (2010), After China’s Rare Earth Embargo, a New Calculus, The New York Times, 29th October:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/business/global/30rare.html

• Carroll, L., 1865. Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland. London: Macmillan.

• Chamberlin, T.C., 1890. The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses. Science, 15, 366, pp. 92-96.

• Eilam, M., 2012. The Shapes of Stories: A Kurt Vonnegut Infographic, Maya Eilam Art & Design:

http://www.mayaeilam.com/2012/01/01/the-shapes-of-stories-a-kurt-vonnegut-infographic

• Ewing, J., 2015, Volkswagen says 11 million cars worldwide are affected by diesel deception, The New York

Times, 22 September: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/23/business/international/volkswagen-diesel-car-

scandal.html

• Freedman, L., 2013. Strategy: A History. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

• Guardian, The, 2011, Landfill life: Indonesians make a living from dump – in pictures, 28 September:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2011/sep/28/indonesia-landfill-mountain-scavengers-in-pictures

• Huntington, S.P., 2002. The Clash of Civilizations: And the Remaking of the World Order. New York: Simon &

Schuster.

• Ilbury, C., & Sunter, C., 2011. The Mind of a Fox: Scenario Planning in Action. Cape Town: Human & Rousseau.

• Infomine, 2016, Cost Indexes and Metal Prices. Mining Cost Service, July, Spokane Valley, WA.

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