Look - No Carbon! The Future of Transportation

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com

LOOK – NO CARBON!The Future of Transportation

BCSEA Victoria Chapter January 19, 2015




OURATMOSPHERE



The last time the world was 3°C warmer, the sea level was up

to

25 metres higher


The last time the world was 3°C warmer, the sea level was up

to

25 metres higher We are currently on track for

4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer



Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com







Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Garth Lenz



Garth Lenz


For an 80% chance of not hitting 2°CBudget = 506 Gt of CO2

We produce 40 Gt a year

A Global Carbon Budget




Nature takes 55%Atmosphere takes 45%

18 Gt is added to the atmosphere





Nature takes 55%Atmosphere takes 45%

18 Gt is added to the atmosphere

Budget shrinks by 18 Gt a yearExhausted in 28 years





How Are We Using the Oil?Cars & light trucks 40%Heavy trucks 13%Flying 8%Shipping 2.5%Asphalt 3%Rail freight 1%Recreational 1%Military 1.5%

TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%

Non-transport uses 29%


Integrated Cost Analysis

$CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail

$


Integrated Governance

CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail


Carbon Taxes Vehicle Feebates Road tolls Municipal taxes General taxes GST

How can we pay for it?


1 Pedestrian-Friendly Cities



Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus















Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Portland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org


Guywww.restreets.org


Guywww.restreets.org

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com www.restreets.org















Pedestrian Cities

1. Make it a Municipal priority2. Organize Walking Audits

3. Build costs into the Transportation Budget


2 Cycling


In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle


Safe bike routes and intersections Good bike parking Cycling education in schools


Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Shanghai, China



Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com School at Assen, Holland

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com A Dutch Intersection






Electric Bicycles





Cost: $24 million


$24 million3,200 km of 1.5 metre bike lane

200 - 700 km of bike lane with road widening

240 km of separated bike lane


SHOVEL READY PROJECTS


1. Make it a Municipal and Regional Priority2. Build into Transportation Budgets

3. Complete the CRD Regional Pedestrian & Cycling Masterplan


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com CRD Pedestrian and Cycling Master Plan


3Public Transit




Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.


Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel


100% Electric Buses


Umea, SwedenFast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day

10-20 kWh = 10 km


On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea


Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comWinnipeg 100% Electric Bus

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comChinese BYD electric bus, being made in America

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comFlash charge electric bus, Hamburg, Germany


Flash charge electric bus, China


Flash charge

electric bus, Geneva


Vienna, AustriaEurope’s first fleet of mass-produced,

quick-charge, fully electric buses. (Seimens)

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comBus stop on Interurban Road, Victoria

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Fun with Bus Shelters









Real-time electronic bus stops



Hasselt, BelgiumFree transit, included in city taxes

1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership



Malahat30,000 vehicles a day

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comLuxury Long-Distance Coaches




An extra $12 a day over the bus for convenience, productivity and comfort.

Needed 25 regular customers.


Road-pricing on the Malahat


$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day240 luxury coaches @ $10 a day + $10

6-8,000 passengers a day25% reduced traffic


Nantes, France

4 Bus Rapid Transit



Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comLight Rail Transit or Bus Rapid Transit?


Light Rail Transit

5



Rail for the Valley

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Possible Victoria LRT Route


Victoria: $62 million/kmCalgary: $15 million/km

Calgary bus: $1.50 a rideCalgary LRT: 27 cents a ride


Besançon: $22 million/km



Electric train + green electricity = zero carbon

6


Electrostar battery-powered train. Being tested in UK on a 12-mile stretch at 65 miles per hour.

80,000 phosphate and hot sodium nickel salt batteries, each the size of a BIC lighter.



The E & N


Railway or Bikeway?


Railway or Bikeway?


7 Zero-Carbon Telework

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems


8 Ride-Sharing

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Real-time Ride-sharing


Guaranteed emergency ride homeCash-out parking

Rideshare Rewards


See

650 members share 23 vehicles

www.victoriacarshare.ca

9 Car Sharing


Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month


Walk Bike

Food Help

Taxi

Skype

ParkRide share

Ski-lift

Maps

Ferry Fly

Car share

LRTTransit

Rail


10 Smart Growth


11

Electric Vehicles


How Are We Using the Oil?Cars & light trucks 40%Heavy trucks 13%Flying 8%Shipping 2.5%Asphalt 3%Rail freight 1%Recreational 1%Military 1.5%

TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%

Non-transport uses 29%


12

Freight


Stronger Local Economies


Electric freight train fuel economy up to 1500 ton-miles per gallon equivalent


Huge rail capacity with the end of coalFossil Fuels = 77% of US freight


Renault Radiance concept truck20% more efficient, not electric

20% increase in freight eliminates the gain

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electric Trucks

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electric Trucks


Cargohopper, for Urban Deliveries, Holland

3 tonnes max, 60 km range, 20 kph top speed.


Cargohopper, for Urban Deliveries, Holland

3 tonnes max, 60 km range, 20 kph top speed.

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Port of Los Angeles, full electric


HEINEKEN, Rotterdam, Netherlands Europe’s largest electric truck 19-tonnes truck, 9 tonnes load

200 kilometres rangeDistributing Heineken® beers


Seimens Electric Dump-TruckTwo 16-cylinder diesel engines, each with an output of around 1,700 kW, drive four 1200 kW electric motors.

Being trialed in Siberia


Siemens truck retro-fitted with diesel/electric power train being trialed in Germany

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Dutch concept Electric Trucks


Mercedes future self-driving truck, GermanyOn the market by 2025


Biofuel Farm and forest wastesSewage and urban organic wastesCultivated seaweed

Renewable fuel Carbon monoxide and industrial wastesGreen hydrogen Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)


Will there be enough?

Rocky Mountain InstituteWith 84% fuel-saving potential, US demand

= 3.1 million barrels a day

US Dept. AgricultureUS farmland could sustainably provide dry

collectable biomass wastes = 3 million barrels a day.


Cargo-CapRuhr University of Bochum

supported by the State of North Rhine-Westphalia.


www.cargocap.com










Double pipe: 3 million euros/kilometerUrban highway: 13-15 million euros/kilometer

High-speed rail track: 15-18 million euros/kilometer





Solar Electric Freight Tube1994 US Federal Highway Administration study


Solar Electric Freight Tube1994 US Federal Highway Administration study

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Food Tubes, UK


Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Hamburg Autobahn, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Hamburg Autobahn, Germany




Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.comShipping - 2.5% of global oil use


Siemens Electric Car Ferry, Norway, 201520 minute route. 120 vehicles, 360 passengers


80 meters long, two 450 kilowatts motors, lithium-ion batteries

1,000 kilowatt-hours capacity


Diesel-electric propulsionSiemens Marine & Shipbuilding, Norway

On a three-day cruise, the Skandi Marstein used 35% less energy than a diesel vessel.


Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com



9 MW solar panelsRetractable sails Self-unloading cargo bays

Superconducting power linkModular LNG hydrogen fuel cells


Flying:


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane



Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraftSuperconducting electric motors

Paris Airshow, 2011Up to Mach 4. Paris to Tokyo in 2.5 hours




EADS E-Thrust


How Do We Get There?


Community engagement x 20


1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding

Most Important Federal Policies



2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure





3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit






4. The electrification of all railways







5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles








6. A requirement that new cars and light trucks produce zero grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2040









1. R&D funding for long-distance transportation solutions









1. R&D funding for long-distance transportation solutions

2. The appointment of well-informed champions to the relevant ministries and agencies.



Together, we can change the world

If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA

www.bcsea.org/join




Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

Environment

Look - No Carbon! The Future of Transportation