Climate Action Now 2016

September 2016

Guy Dauncey

Guy Dauncey is a futurist who works to develop a positive vision of a sustainable future, and to translate that vision into action. He lives on

Vancouver Island, in Canada.

He is founder of the BC Sustainable Energy Association, co-founder of the Victoria Car Share Cooperative, and the author or co-author of ten

books, including The Climate Challenge: 101 Solutions to Global Warming and

Journey to the Future: A Better World Is Possible.

He is an Honorary Member of the Planning Institute of BC, a Fellow of the Findhorn

Foundation in Scotland, and a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts, founded in Britain in 1754.

(Old photo. Add ten years.)www.earthfuture.com

www.journeytothefuture.ca www.thepracticalutopian.ca

A NOTE TO TUTORSIf you are using the slides to teach a course, please note that the first 200 are mostly about the problem; the rest are about the solutions.

So be sure to time yourself. If students only get the “OMG” side, they may become alarmed and depressed. People need the solutions too, to understand that change is possible.

Including discussion, the full presentation needs 3-5 hours.

Guy Dauncey 2016 www.earthfuture.com

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

This whole presentation is available on

Many thanks to everyone whose photos and images I have used.Permission is granted to use these slides in courses and lectures.

Things have come a long way since the beginning of the Universe…

Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com Smithore Dreamstime.com

But we have also come to this…

Vancouver Island, British Columbia

Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com Vancouver Island, British Columbia


We used to be so proud,how we could conquer nature.

Vancouver Island, British Columbia

World Population: 7.4 billionIncreasing by 200,000 a day

World Population: 7.4 billionIncreasing by 200,000 a day

Hopefully stabilizing

at 11 billion by AD 2100,

then declining

Extinctions

Human population

'Insatiable' by Theodore Bolha

This is a gif –Give it a

moment to kick in

Simulated global Temperature Change 1850-2100

2000

2009


How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps



1. Earth has a very thin atmosphere, which traps heat, protecting us from being roasted by day and frozen by night.



2. There are two important greenhouse gases that trap heat in

the atmosphere, keeping us warm: water vapor and

carbon dioxide

Greenhouse gases trap the Sun’s heat, and give us warmth



3. When there is very low water vapor and carbon dioxide, Earth enters an Ice Age

The future British Columbia during the last Ice Age


Ice age

Over 700,000 years, carbon dioxide (blue) and temperature (red) tracked each other very closely.


Ice age


Ice age


The last 10,000 years


The last 150 years, burning fossil fuels

& deforestation



4. The fossil fuels that power our worldcome from ancient fossil carbon












4.



Coal = ancient solar energy


As we burn the fossil fuels…

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

5. When we burn fossil fuels, we release their ancient carbon into the atmosphere

27% of the carbon is going into the ocean, where it is increasing acidity, poisoning shellfish and corals


6. When we destroy forests, we release their carbon into the atmosphere




7. The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming



8. All this extra carbon traps heat, causing global warming



Methane, nitrous oxide and CFCs also trap heat


Fort McMurray, Summer 2016

Where the heat is going



9. When there is too much CO2 Earth warms, oceans warm, ice melts, and the sea level rises

The last time the world was 3C warmer,the sea level was 25 metres higher.

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

The Guardian, March 22, 2016

Vancouver 2 Metres Sea-Level Rise




2-metre sea-level riseEvery beach on the planet … GONE

September

February

Arctic Sea-Ice Decline, 1979-2029

If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat

10. We need urgent and rapid change to end these harmful historical habits, and build a green, sustainable future


The four human causes of the climate crisis


1. Burning fossil fuels


1. Burning fossil fuels2. Eating meat, dairy


1. Burning fossil fuels2. Eating meat, dairy3. Destroying forests


1. Burning fossil fuels2. Eating meat, dairy3. Destroying forests

4. Destructive economy

Global Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions

2004. (Source IPCC)

Why do people really deny the climate science?

1. If people come to believe it’s true, it will threaten our corporate profits from fossil fuels.

2. I don’t like big government, and if it was true, governments would have to act, and they’d need more powers, so I believe it’s all a government plot.

3. I am a confident, well-educated older male, and I think I know how the world works. I don’t like being wrong, and I really don’t like tree-huggers telling me I’m wrong.

4. I’m very comfortable, and I don’t like change - and this climate thing has got change written all over it.

Seven great climate websites

www.skepticalscience.com

www.theguardian.com

thinkprogress.org/climate

www.climatechangenews.com

insideclimatenews.org

www.climatecentral.org

cleantechnica.com

www.bcsea.org/green-economy

Pause for Climate Science Discussion

The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistithe climate crisis

The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistithe climate crisis1. 100% renewable energy


2. Phase out industrial meat


2. Phase out industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests


2. Phase out industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests4. Eco-sequestrate carbon


2. Phase out industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests4. Eco-sequestrate carbon5. A restorative economy

Five minutes of Climate Math…

1750 Atmospheric carbon 2016

560 Gt 807 Gt 260 ppm 407 ppm

350 ppm = 700 Gt

10 GT

45%

27%

27%

Where the carbon is

going

Carbon added to the atmosphere every year. 45% of 10 Gt = 4.5 Gt

4.5 GT of carbon

2°C

2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’

James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

2012

493GT

2015

304GT

2020

104GT

2025

0

2030

Potsdam Institute

The Paris Climate Agreement

Great Collapse

Great Transition

A Global Carbon CapA firm global cap

on fossil fuel emissions,agreed to by all nations,

motivated by real alarm, and a clear positive vision

of a future green economy.

By 2015, a global cap of 493 Gt of future CO2

for a 75% chancethat the global temperature will not rise by 2°C

The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

493Gigatonnes of CO2

= a 25% chancethat we’ll crash right through the 2°C barrier

The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

493Gigatonnes of CO2

Canada’s Other Greenhouse Gases

MethaneNitrous OxideThe F Gases

Also all to zero by 2040

Canada’s 2015 CO2 emissions

500Megatonnes of CO2

Canada’s shareof global emissions

1.25%The Non-Equity Model,

divided by current emissions

How longwill the budget

last?

Annual reduction in

CO2 emissions

% of Canada’s

2015 emissions

Year by when zero

emissions is achieved

Mt of CO2 released

before before reaching

zero

Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

Year by when 6,000 Mt

carbon budget is exhausted

5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

CANADA’S CHOICES

Canada’s Annual CO2 Reduction

25Mt of CO2

ZeroBy 2040

Starting today

Starting 2020

EndDeforestation

1.5

Gigatonnes of carbon a year


The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming

Who, - me?

Me?

Why so big?

N2O from manure

Methane from manure

Methane from anaerobic digestion (burping)US Data

Each molecule of methane traps 34 x more heat than CO2 over 100 years; 84 x more over 20 years.

Here’s the small print on

GHGs from livestock.

Livestock’s Long Shadow.

FAO, 2006.

= 14=18%

Under discussion in Denmark

National Carbon Caps

1. Each nation is allocated a cap, agreed by negotiation.

2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for a permit in a national annual auction.

3. The auction puts a price on carbon and brings income to the government.

Fossil fuels imported

Fossil fuels extracted

An Annual Fossil Fuel Permits Auction

The Race to Zero

= The Race to a Clean Green Economy

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Every year5-10% CO2 reduction

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Every yearrenewable energy

increase

Each year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits

Denmark

Denmark

Carbon rationing, for individuals and businesses

Carbon rationing, for individuals and businesses

Year 1: eg 5 tonnes CO2 (average per person)Year 2: less 5-10%, etc

+ A Carbon Exchangeto buy and sell rations

Business Carbon Rationing

Not everyone wants this – it’s a struggle

LNG

=Leave itN theGround

Why? The climate crisis, the salmon, the eelgrass, the Tsimshian, the Haida…

Lelu IslandSkeena Estuary

The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters

1. Promote climate leadership, engagement, education and adaptation


2. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve 100% renewable energy for electricity by 2030


3. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable transportation


4. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable buildings


5. Put an annually increasing effective price on carbon


6. Build a green, cooperative, caring,entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century


7. Create targets, policies and regulations to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions and leave most fossil fuels in the ground


8. Create targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s emissions-intensive industries reduce their

emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy


9. Create targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s farmers, ranchers and foresters to reduce

their emissions and sequestrate carbon


10. Work with other nations to accelerate global progress

65%of British Columbians want a commitment to

phase out coal, oil and gas, replacing them with renewable energy.

Oracle Poll, November 2015

73 %of British Columbians want to see a legally enforced cap or limits on carbon pollution.


75%of British Columbians think protecting the climate is more important than building

pipelines and further developing the tar sands.Oracle Poll, November 2015

92%of British Columbians

want to see a plan to develop jobs in

the renewable energy sector.


So how are we going to

do this?

It will take everyone – you, me, non-profits, schools, colleges,

governments, businesses, banks, - and global cooperation

GREENHOUSEGASES

GREENHOUSEGASES

THE CAUSES

FOSSIL FUELS in•TRANSPORTATION•ELECTRICITY•INDUSTRY•HEAT

MEAT & DAIRY

DEFORESTATION

CONVENTIONAL FARMING

METHANE, F GASES

CARBON LOSS

EXTRACTIVE ECONOMY

GREENHOUSEGASES

THE SOLUTIONS

100% RENEWABLE ENERGY in•TRANSPORTATION

•ELECTRICITY•INDUSTRY

•HEAT

LESS MEAT & DAIRY

SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY

ORGANIC FARMING

REDUCED METHANE

ECOSEQUESTRATION

RESTORATIVE ECONOMY

GREENHOUSEGASES

LEARN

EDUCATEACTDREAM

PUBLIC, YOU & ME,SCHOOLS, NGOs

GREENHOUSEGASES

INNOVATIONNEW

SUPPORT

POLICIES

INCENTIVESR & D

ECO-INVESTMENT

ECONOMYJOBS

GOVERNMENTSBUSINESS

GREENHOUSEGASES

FLEXIBLE REGULATIONS

CARBONPRICING

GREENHOUSEGASES


GREENHOUSEGASES

This way needs a price of $200 a tonne by 2030(Is Win-Win Possible? Mark Jaccard et al, 2016)

For example:•Revenue-neutral carbon tax, rising each year, balanced by tax reductions•Revenue positive carbon tax, income to climate solutions•Carbon fee and dividend, everyone gets an annual cheque•Carbon cap-and-trade, caps for industry, trading for carbon allowances

CARBONPRICING

GREENHOUSEGASES

This way gets needs far lower carbon pricing

For example:•Auto-emissions – eg zero emissions (eg all EVs) by 2030•Electricity – eg zero coal-fired by 2025, gas-fired by 2030•Low carbon fuel standard applied to freight•Biofuel sustainability regulations, incl upstream emissions•Industry – declining GHGs emissions per unit of output, exemptions for export-vulnerable industries•Coal, oil and gas production emissions caps•All new buildings energy net-zero (Passive House) by 2025•All condos mandatory efficiency audits and retrofits

LEARN

EDUCATE

ACT

DREAM

INNOVATIONNEW

SUPPORT

POLICIES

INCENTIVESR & D

ECO-INVESTMENT

ECONOMYJOBS

PUBLIC, YOU & ME,SCHOOLS, NGOs

GOVERNMENTSBUSINESS

GREENHOUSEGASES

CARBONPRICING


Climate Action - Putting it all together

Pause for Discussion

The visions we offer our children shape the future. It matters what those visions are.

– Carl Sagan, 1934-1996

The Motivating Power of Vision

Think of the Age of Fossil Fuels as the LAUNCH RAMP

for the Solar Age

30,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil FuelsScience

EngineeringEnlightenment

Two billion yearsSolar Energy

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than

a billion years, and with every passing year,

solar technologies will improveand fall in price.

Neolithic Era

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0


Neolithic EraAncient Egypt

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0



Roman Empire

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0



Roman EmpireIslamic Golden Age

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

The Age of Fossil Fuels



Roman EmpireIslamic Golden Age

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

The Age of Fossil Fuels

……………………………………….

The next 1,000,000,000 years

The Solar Age

Farewell and Thank You, Fossil Fuels

Welcome, Solar Age!

CITY OF VICTORIAjust voted to go

100% RENEWABLE

Oslo voted to slash emissions 95% by 2030

Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England

“Climate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity

for capital markets.”

HOW MANY FOSSIL FUEL

JOBS WILL END?

HOW MANY NEW JOBS WILL BE CREATED?

Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in Canada

By Guy Dauncey

800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained


Direct Jobs

Induced Jobs

Indirect Jobs

Direct Job: Installing Solar

Indirect Job: Making Solar


Induced Job: Spending Solar Earnings

Solar worker

Farmer$$$


Canada has 555,000 direct and indirect jobs in fossil fuels


If phased out by 2040: 22,000 jobs disappear each year.

If phased out by 2050: 16,000 jobs disappear each year.

555,000 Direct and Indirect Fossil Fuel Jobs


Where will the new jobs be?

1.Renewable Electricity2.Building Retrofits3.Railway Electrification4.Cycling5.Electric Vehicles6.Transit7.Farming

If by 2040: Can they create 22,000 new jobs a year?

If by 2050: Can they create 16,000 new jobs year?

www.ironandearth.org

TRANSPORTATIONAn organized plan to shift all modes of transport

to 100% renewable energy by 2040

TRANSPORTATION WITHOUT FOSSIL FUELS


3-D pavement art, Sichuan, China

Metro do Porto, Portugal

Downtown streets

www.restreets.org

Downtown streets

Suburban streets

Suburban streets

Hamburg Autobahn, Germany

The road will run under the green space

Community Celebration – the oldest tradition

Neighbourhood Tool-Sharing

www.cityrepair.org

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Portland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org

Neighbours in the Gorge area of Victoria got together to learn about resilience and improve their

street. This used to be a boring concrete wall.

The Bicycle - a Romance in 10 ActsAct 1: Love

Act 2: Marriage

Act 3: Sperm Donation

Act 4: Kids!

Act 5: More Kids!

In Odense, Denmark, 5-Year-Olds Bike to School on their Own

Act 6: To School!

Act 7: All the Neighbours’ Kids

Act 8: The Safe Commute to Work

Act 9: Shopping

Act 10: Retirement

Act 11: Old Age

Act 12: The End

Solar electric bike, top speed 48 km/hr

The Copenhagen Wheel

The Veemo, Vancouver, 2016Electric bike-car

www.velometro.com

Seville Bike LaneSpain

Copenhagen Bicycle-Bridge

Solar bike lane, South Korea

The Hovenring Bicycle Bridge, HollandConnects Eindhoven and Veldhoven

Melkweg (‘Milky Way’) Bike and pedestrian bridgePurmerend, Holland

A possible future Granville Street Bridge, Vancouver

10,000 lives could be saved and 76,600 job opportunities created if people in major European cities cycled

as much as they do in Copenhagen. World Health Organization, 2014

655,000 people work in cycling in the EU, most in cycle tourism. If cycling’s modal share were doubled, more

than 400,000 new jobs could be created. Cycling has a higher employment intensity per million of

turnover than other transport sectors.


Cycling Economy Jobs1% cycling trip share 4,000 jobs25% cycling trip share 103,000 jobs


Year 1 Year 251% Trip Share 160 jobs 4,000 jobs25% Trip Share 4,000 jobs 103,000 jobs12.5% Trip Share 2,000 jobs 50,000 jobs

Barcelona is moving ALL buses to100% electric by 2020

Los Angeles BYD Articulated Electric Bus 170 miles range

Australian/Chinese Brighsun Bus1027 km on one charge

(no passengers. 500 km when full)

Curitiba, Brazil

Elevated transit bus, under development in China

Imagine – tables on buses common in Europe

The Pilot: real-time in-ear translations in French, Spanish, Italian, and English

Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.

Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel

Transit Expansion JobsInstallation Jobs Operational Jobs

Year 1 28,000 13,000Year 25 28,000 338,000Extrapolated for all of urban Canada from the Metro Vancouver Mayors’ Transportation Plan

Build-Them-Ourselves Bus Shelters

Real-time electronic bus stops

Car sharing - Car2GoHow many members in Vancouver?

Car sharing - Car2Go100,000 members in Vancouver

Provincial and national goals and incentives for EV uptake.

Top

Hiroko EV in northern Spain

Top

Same car – it folds up!

EV and Hybrid EV sales in Norway pass 30% market share

Norway’s Transport Plan assumes that electric cars could have 100% share of new car sales by 2025.

India is working on a plan to make every car electric by 2030, self-financed by the savings on gas.

Almost 400,000 advance orders have been placed for the new US $35,000 Tesla Model 3.

320 kilometres range


Honda solar electric car charging

Smart grid solar-powered charging station

York University Faculty of Environmental Studies

Image of future charging lane in England

2nd hand Nissan Leaf: $17,000www.motorizevictoria.ca

The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

2018

The falling price of EV batteries

From 2025, all BMWs to be electric

By 2025, Holland is preparing to ban the purchase of gas and diesel cars

Honda’s EV Battery Recycling Plant, Japan


Electric Cars: The $$ spent on electricity stays in Canada

1,000 25,000 new Induced Jobs

I M A G I N E

An Electric Vehicles Climate Solutions Treaty

40 nations agree toA Zero Emissions Standard

for all new cars by 2025All light trucks by 2030

Electric Highways for Trucks, Sweden

40 ton truck, 100 km range, 3-4 hours recharge

Swiss E-Force 18 tonne electric truck300 km range

80–110 kWh per 100 km at highway speed

Future Nicola One 2000 HP electric truckCNG hybrid. Driving range 800-1200 miles

per tank. www.nikolamotor.com

Future Scania electric truck, recharging by an inductive roadway.

Future railwayselectric, 100% renewable energy


Railway Electrification50,000 kilometres14,000 jobs a year

In France, the TGV railway has formed a partnership with the Louvre Art Gallery

3M graphic film

Norway’s Electric Ferry ZeroCat5.7 km route, 20 minute round trip

Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet

Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet

The Wind Challenger, University of Tokyo

The Energy ObserverSolar, wind, & onboard hydrogen from electrolysis

Aviation: nothing ready yet

Millennium Airship

Airbus E-Fan. 100% electric.

Solar Impulse. 100% solar electric.

Air pollution - gone

Pause for Transportation Discussion

ELECTRICITYA Federal Clean Energy Plan

Help the provinces to close down all coal-fired power plants by 2025, all gas-fired power plants by 2040

More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.


Area needed – totally theoretically – for all of Earth’s power to be met by solar PV

Price of Solar Module

per Watt

1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000

200 GWin 2014

Mass production = falling prices

Solar on a Condo, Victoria, BCwww.bcsea.org/solar-on-strata

Average BC home electricity per yearUsing baseboard heat: 20,000 kWhUsing gas heat: 11,000 kWhLED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh


4 kW PV System$3.50 to $4 per watt

$14-16,000 + tax4,400 kWh year

Solar Economics in BC (1)4 kW @ $4.00 per watt

13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance

4 kW + tax $16,800 3% finance $24,000 kWh per year 4,400Hydro savings pa $572 and risingCost per year $960



Cost per year $960Savings per year 2016: $572

2020: $6952025: $8872030: $1132



4 kW + tax $11,340 3% finance $16,200 kWh per year 4,400Hydro savings pa $572 and risingCost per year $648



Cost per year: $648Savings per year 2016: $572

2020: $6952025: $8872030: $1132

Average EV: 18 kWh per 100 km20,000 km = 3,600 kWh a year3,600 kWh a year = 3.3 kW PV

Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

Somewhere in Germany(or Austria)

Dubai Sustainable City

Nelson’s Community Solar Garden

BCIT Energy Oasis, Burnaby, BC250 kw, 500-kWh Li-ion Batteries

2 DC Fast Charge stationsSophisticated energy-management system (EMS)

21 kW. The money saved goes into Climate and Renewable Energy scholarships

for the students

Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Floating Solar in England. They clip together, like Lego

The world’s largest floating solarQueen Elizabeth II reservoir, Walton-on-Thames, England

23,046 solar panels, 6.3 MW

13.7MW plant on the Yamakura Dam reservoir

Thin-film Solar PV

Solar Shingles

China’s share of solar module and wind turbine manufacturers

3 cents kwh 3.6 cents kwh

Pause for Solar Discussion

“We’ve got to stop them! Those wind turbines are killing birds.”

Reality

Reality

Reality

Tidal Energy Plant, South Korea

Proposed Tidal Lagoon, Swansea, Wales


Installation Operation/Maintenance

Per Year Year 1 Year 25Solar 101,000 1,700 42,000Wind 29,000 700 15,000Geothermal 15,000 600 14,000TOTAL 145,000 3,000 71,000


Canada Electricity Demand 2014 511 TWh

Canada Electricity Demand 2040 750 TWh

Canada Renewable Electricity 2013 330 TWh

New Renewables Needed by 2040

420 TWh

Pause for GeneralRenewable Energy Discussion

BUILDINGSZero emissions for all new buildings starting in 2020.

Zero emissions from existing buildings by 2040.Nationwide program to retrofit every building for energy efficiency and renewable energy.

Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com Building Energy Retrofits


Building Retrofit Jobs90% of

buildings$ investment per building

$ billion per

year

Jobs per year

Residential 11,250,000 $10,000 $4.5 67,500C & I 432,000 $50,000 $1.7 25,500Total 93,000

Total, assuming 90% of buildings 93,000 jobs a year

Canada, population 35 million

500

6.6 73,000 26,000

Canada-wide1.75

A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain

blog.floridaenergycenter.org

Passive Houses, Victoria90% reduced heat loss

Passive House, Victoria, B.C. 90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2, 4.4% more cost

www.bernhardtpassive.com

Brussels, BelgiumSince 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are

required to be Nearly-Zero Energy, based on the Passive House Standard.

Stockholm, 80,000 apartmentsheat from treated sewage

Vancouver Olympic VillageSewage-Based District Heat

Drake Landing, Okotoks, AlbertaStored Solar Thermal Heat

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating

800 solar hot water panels on the garages

Energy Centre

Community solar Thermal panels

90% solar heating throughout the cold Alberta winter

Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero100% solar district heat + 23.4 MWth solar thermal storage

+ Biomass cogeneration plant

Stored Solar District Heat

Six Sources of Renewable Heat

Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat

Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat

Where cars dominates, people connect less. Less sense of neighbourhood.

Less mutual support.

With people-inspired urban design, people connect. More sense of neighbourhood.

More mutual support.

Semiahmoo Transit Station Surreywww.greenovergrey.com

Semiahmoo Transit Station Surreywww.greenovergrey.com

REGEN Danish village, 100 homes being built summer 2016. EFFEKT Architects

Energy positive homes. High-yield organic food production. Mixed renewable energy and storage. Water and waste

recycling. Empowerment of local communities.

EFFEKTwww.effekt.dk/work#/regenvillages

Pause for Buildings Discussion

INDUSTRYImprove energy efficiency,

replace coal and gas with biomass or hydrogen.

Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet

ALBERTA OIL SANDSPlan Zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions.

Freeze production at current level.Deny licenses for all new pipelines.

Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040.Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.

FOOD AND FARMINGOrganic farming everywhere

Organic yields match conventional yields.Organic outperforms conventional in years of drought.

Organic farming uses 45% less energy.Conventional systems produce 40% more greenhouse gases.Organic farming is

more profitable than conventional.Rodale Institute, 30-year trials.

A Local Food Economy

Brooklyn School Edible Schoolyard



All organic farms protect their bees

Using small-scale intensive organic horticulture, farmers can earn $50,000 an acre,

50% costs, 50% income

Pause for Food & Farming Discussion


2. No more industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests4. Eco-sequestrate carbon5. A restorative economy

The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistothe climate crisis1. 100% renewable energy

2. No more industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests4. Eco-sequestrate carbon5. A restorative economy

Atmospheric carbon in 1750

560 Gt 260 ppm


560 Gt 807 Gt 260 ppm 407 ppm


560 Gt 807 Gt 260 ppm 407 ppm

350 ppm = 700 Gt


807 Gt

700 Gt

SustainableForestryOrganic

Farming

NewRanching

SustainableForestry

In the Pacific Northwest, at its maximum, a 160-year rotation cycle will store 590 tonnes of carbon per hectare,

compared to 363 tonnes in a 490-year cycle.

In the Pacific Northwest, at its maximum, a 160-year rotation cycle will store 590 tonnes of carbon per hectare,

compared to 363 tonnes in a 490-year cycle.

+ 1 Gt of carbon a year

Zero-till, conservation farming and organic farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon

from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal

Zero-till, conservation farming and organic farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon

from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal

+ 1.5 Gt of carbon a year

+ 2 Gt of carbon a year

3 Gt a year for 33 years = 100 GtNeeds the whole world to do it, by treaty

Pause for Eco-Sequestration Discussion

The transition from a capitalist economy to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy

could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.



GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet


GrossDepletion of the

Planet

Why?

To raise cattle, to make hamburgers

Green Business Certification

Benefit Corporations

Public Banking

$15 Minimum wage

Basic Income Guarantee

Measuring General Provincial Happinessas well as Gross Domestic Product

Abolish Every Tax Haven

Climate Treaties are essentially voluntary

Trade Treaties come with tribunals, bringing huge penalties and costs.

Chapter 11 allows corporations to sue governments if they feel they have not been treated as a domestic

company would be treated.

After Obama rejected the Keystone Pipeline, TransCanada filed a $15 billion lawsuit under NAFTA.

Where will the money come from?

1. Private & Utility Investors2. Carbon taxes and pricing3. Climate Bonds4. Public Banking Credit Creation5. Green Quantitative Easing

Pause for New Green Economy Discussion

www.theclimatemobilization.org

• Global Carbon Cap

• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps

• Climate Bonds


• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax


• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing


• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025


• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive

House standard by 2020



House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative



House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative• Tax on meat and dairy



House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative• Tax on meat and dairy• Solar electrification of railways

• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more




• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy




• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018




• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025


• Climate Bonds• Carbon Price• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive


• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more


So what is our future to be?

Collapse is Possible

A Great Transition is Possible

It’s up to each of us to choose. And then to act.


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com