Bobbi Hudson, Modeling trophic interactions in South Sound

Pacific Shellfish InstituteSHELLF ISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES

Ecological Carrying Capacity and the Influence of Shellfish Culture in South Puget SoundBOBBI HUDS ON , PAC I F I C S HELLF ISH I N ST IT UT E

SOUT H SOUN D SC I EN CE SYM POSI UM

SEPT EM BER 20 , 2016


Next 15 Minutes… PSI: Who we are

Research purpose

Project components

Why Ecopath

Scenarios in EcoSim

Results & what they mean

Future directions

Text

0 5 10 15 202.5

Miles

±

Hood Canal

South Puget Sound

Tacomaa

Seattle


Pacific Shellfish Institute (PSI) Washington-based 501(c)3

Established in 1995 with strong linkages to the Pacific Coast Shellfish Growers Association (PCSGA)

In 2004, PSI Bylaws were changed to provide a clearer separation from PCSGA

Research Org.

Trade Assoc.


PSI Staff

Bobbi Hudson, Aimee Christy, Andy Suhrbier, Steve Booth, Dan Cheney, Katie Houle, Mary Middleton


PSI Landscape PSI’s funding source:

1. Competitive fed. grants2. Priv. foundation grants

High level of industry cooperation & in-kind support

Partnerships are veryimportant

Other (25+ sources)9%

NOAA-NMFS2% USDA-Ag Research

2%

Russell Family Foundation

2%

PCSGA2%

WA Oyster Reserve

3%

Industry3%

USDA4%

WSU8%

NOAA-SK14%

NOAA-Sea Grant51%

$8M: 1995 – June 2015


Project Goal & Funding Assess ecological & social carrying

capacity of south Puget Sound

Provide tools & information

Provide recommendations for multi-use spatial planning

Include sustainable shellfish aquaculture

Funding: NOAA thru WA Sea Grant


Project Work GroupBobbi Hudson and Dan Cheney, PSI

*David Preikshot, Madrone Enviro. Services

J. Ferreira & C. Saurel, Longline Enviro., Ltd

Suzanne Bricker, NOAA National Ocean Service

Mindy Roberts, WA Dept. of Ecology (at time)

Danna Moore and Thom Allen, WSU

Teri King, Washington Sea Grant

Joth Davis, Taylor Shellfish


Production, Ecological & Social Carrying Capacity Assessment

South Puget SoundProduction

Carrying Capacity

Ecological

Carrying

Capacity

Region Guidance & Outreach

Stakeholder Working Group

Review of local priorities, plans, policies

FARM Model

DE

LIV

ER

AB

LE

S

PE

SC

AA

CT

IVIT

IES

Objective 1

Objective 2

Objective 3

Objective 4

ASSETS

EcoWin Model

EcoPATH Model

Public

Perceptions

Survey

Social

Carrying Capacity


Ecological Carrying CapacityMaximum extractive pressure that does not cause unacceptable change in the ecosystem


South Puget Sound (SPS) S. of Tacoma Narrows Area: 445 km2 Shallow:

~42m mean depth Private tidelands Modest development;

some high density; many waterfront residences


Why Ecopath? A way to visualize the biomass of a suite of

species groups over time To account for biomass we consider:

mortality rates or ‘production’ of the spp. group food intake diet composition

Mass Balanced Approach Stakeholder-guided process to:

Gather the best data (population/biomass) Ask relevant questions (scenario development)


ProcessVisualizing Ecological Interactions of SPS

Work-shop Purpose

Info. exchangeOutcome

Modeler to Stakeholder Stakeholder to Modeler

3/13Conceptual diagram

Present conceptual diagram of south Puget Sound marine ecosystem, explain how EwE works

Likely request changes to model &/or alter ecosystem diagram

Shared ownership in process, stake in outcome of ecological carrying capacity calculation

4/14Data sources & input parameters

Present data sources, parameters and proposed Ecosim simulations

Likely alter input parameters, suggest &/or alter Ecosim simulations

Acceptance of input parameters and agreement on Ecosim simulations to be performed

1/16Ecological carrying capacity calculations

Present carrying capacity calculations (results)

Recommend how to disseminate results, and to whom

Acceptance of carrying capacity results


Ecopath Basics1. the big ones eat the small ones

2. there are more small ones than big ones

3. the big ones live longer

4. herbivores eat more than carnivores

FoodClipArt.com


SPS Food Web


Our Ecopath with EcoSim (EwE)

Simulates known historic changes (1970-2012) “Tuned” by fitting hind cast annual average

biomass changes to data from stock assessments of abundance surveys

Forecasts potential changes (2012-2054) of the biomass of 12 key species of marine mammals, marine birds, salmon, game fish and bivalves


Modeled biomass change: 1970-2012


EcoSim Simulations forecast potential future

ecosystem configurations:1. varying future phytoplankton

productivity2. changes in abundance

of mediating species3. changes in certain

fisheries and aquaculture management policies


EcoSim Forecasting the Future

Past primary production dynamics drives future simulations

Future similar to the past


Eelgrass Kelp Oyster drills Jellies

increase 25% increase 25% increase 2x decrease 50%

decrease 25% decrease 25% increase 4x increase 2x

increase 8x

Scenarios: Changes in Mediating Conditions

jaxshells.org

A. Christy

B. Hudson

B. Hudson


Scenarios: Changes in Fishing & Aquaculture Policies

B. Hudson photos

BAU Fishing & aquaculture unchanged

Sea Lion F Sea Lion control fishery introduced in 2015

Sm Crab F Small crab control fishery introduced in 2015

WGeo 1.5x Wild geoduck biomass increase 50%

FGeo 1.5x Farmed geoduck biomass increase 10x

FmOyst 2x Farmed oyster biomass increase 2x

FmOyst 10x Farmed oyster biomass increase 10x

FmMsl 2x Farmed mussel biomass increase 2x

FmMsl 10x Farmed mussel biomass increase 10x

FmClm 2x Farmed clam biomass increase 2x

FmClm 10x Farmed clam biomass increase 10x


Forecasting in EcoSim


Farmed geoduck is increased 10x by 2025, and the annual phytoplankton production is 25% less than it was in 1970-2012

EcoSim


Forecasting in EcoSim


Results Summary

In all scenarios of future marine production:

few trophic effects on the SPS ecosystem when maintaining or significantly increasing shellfish aquaculture


Future Directions1. Potential economic change from policy

changes

2. Shifts in cultured species between oyster, clam and geoduck; and new species

3. Water quality, regulatory and management considerations


Thank you!

Bobbi Hudson

(360) 754-2741

[email protected]

www.pacshell.org

http://www.pacshell.org/

Environment

Bobbi Hudson, Modeling trophic interactions in South Sound