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Schedule Risk Analysis Model (SRAM)-For Infrastructure Project
Presented by Under guidance Vishal.R.Kachwah of MIS :121420005 Prof. Dr. N.A.Hedaoo
1College of Engineering, Pune
AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT
The main aim of this study the application of SRAM and verify this
operates well and produces realistic results in capturing relation between
activity durations and risk factors in schedule for construction project. Study and understand uncertainty and risk in project scheduling .
Calculate impact of risk in quantitative form using probablitical method with the help of
analysis software.
Evaluate construction activity networks under risk factors by using real case study .
This study provided schedule risk analysis guidelines for future project .
2College of Engineering, Pune
3
Risk identification• D
etermines which risks may affect the project.
• Documents their characteristic.
Data collection • D
evelop questionnaire to identify critical risk factors.
• Identifie Survey participants, distribuait questionnaires and conduct in-person interviews.
Data analysis • T
he risk analysis process uses Monte Carlo techniques to determine probabilities and contingency.
Case Study • Q
uantify impact of risk on a project schedule with the use of MS Project
METHODOLOGY
College of Engineering, Pune
Position of SRAM in risk management process
METHODOLOGY
Risk identification and classification.
Qualitative and Quantitative Risk analysis
Conduct case study of a infrastructure project and Quantify impact of risk on a project schedule.
4College of Engineering, Pune
Risk assessment survey
Questionnaire
5College of Engineering, Pune
Delphi technique is way to reach qualitative result
Historical data are unavailable
Activity is rather unclear
The questionnaire was developed by examining past studies to extract risk
factors that are more appropriate infrastructure project.
The questionnaire was divided into two parts.
The first part included questions regarding the respondent’s
The second part consisted of a total risk factors
6College of Engineering, Pune
Consultants (PMC) Project managers Construction managers Planners
The budget values of projects that run by the interviewed persons range from 50 cr to 200 cr and the Experience range from 5 to 15 years
The type of contact persons are for survey
Pilot study
Survey methodology
We have to achieve response rate > 40 %
7College of Engineering, Pune
Risk Identification
Resources
LabourEquipment
Material
Site conditions
EnvironmentalSub-surface
Site location
Project parties
Owner Design and Architecture Contractor
Project management
Consultant
Project features
Financial
Political
The second part consisted of a total of 4
main factor 12 sub factor.
Total 60 risk factor cover in this survey
which collected form four deferent
research work.
8College of Engineering, Pune
Risk factor = Severity factor * Frequency of occurrence factor ( 3 ) Description Descriptor RANK Probability
Even Chance project Almost certain
Very high >50%
One in Every 4 project Likely High >25%
One in every 10 project
Possible Moderate >10%
One in Every 20 project
Unlikely Low >5%
Less than 1 in 20 project
Rare Very Low <5%
RANK Schedule
Very high >3 Month
High 2to3 Month
Moderate 1to2 Month
Low 2to4 Week
Very Low <2 Week
Probability matrix. Impact matrix
9College of Engineering, Pune
The Software use for future work
Simulation and risk analysis using Palisade’s @RISK It gives equal weight to each 3‐point estimate. That is, no attempt is made to assess the likelihood
of each outcome. Interdependence between risks, as well as their ultimate impact on the project plan’s targets
For scheduling project using Microsoft project
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College of Engineering, Pune
Case Study Name of project:
Design And Construction Bridge Over River
Pawna, flyover & ROB On Kalewadi Phata To
Dhehu Alandi Road Pune
• Client : PCMC
• Contractor: Gammon India Limited
• Consultant : C. V. Kand Counsultant Pvt .Ltd
• Contract Value: 99,41,78,125/-Rupees
• Status: On going
BAR CHART
11
Jul2015
Aug2015
Sept2015
Oct2015
Nov2015
Dec2015
Jan2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Apr2016
May2016
Literature Review
Collection of Data
Analysis of data
Results and Interpretation
Dissertation Writing
College of Engineering, Pune
REFERENCE 1. Iyer, K. and Jha, K. (2006). “Critical Factors Affecting Schedule Performance: Evidence from Indian Construction Projects", This
paper is part of the Journal of Construction Engineering and Management , Vol. 132, No. 8, August 1, 2006.
2. Long D. Nguyen,Duc H. Phan, and Llewellyn C. M. Tang. “Simulating Construction Duration for Multistory Buildings with
Controlling Activities”, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE,09 January 2013
3. Mohamed Sayed Bassiony Ahmed Abd El-Karim a,Omar Aly Mosa El Nawawy , Ahmed Mohamed Abdel-Alim “Identification and assessment of risk factors affecting construction projects".HBRC Journal, science direct, Online publication date: 1-Jun-2015
4. Damien Schatteman; Willy Herroelen; Stijn Van de Vonder .“Methodology for Integrated Risk Management and Proactive Scheduling of Construction Projects”. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Online publication date: 01 November 2008
5. Dho H J, Khaled E. “Fast and accurate risk evaluation for scheduling large-scale construction projects”. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date:2011
6. Subramanyan, H., Sawant, P., and Bhatt, V. (2012). "Construction Project Risk Assessment: Development of Model Based on Investigation of Opinion of Construction Project Experts from India" Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date:2012
7. Ahuja, H. N., and Nandakumar, V. (1985). "Simulation model to forecast project completion time" . Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date:1985
8. Mulholland, B., and Christian, J.“Risk assessment in construction schedules” .Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date: 01 January 1999.
12College of Engineering, Pune
THANK YOU
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College of Engineering, Pune