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PRE-INSTALLATION EVALUATION OF INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS

Jonathan B. Maxwell and Betsy Ricker, ERS Carley Murray, NYSERDA*

*Any opinions expressed, explicitly or implicitly, are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority

IEPEC Chicago August 2013

Pre-Installation Evaluation of Industrial Projects

Jonathan B. Maxwell and Betsy Ricker, ERS Carley Murray, NYSERDA*

*Any opinions expressed, explicitly or implicitly, are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority

Objectives

Primary Discuss methods, advantages, and

disadvantages of very early impact evaluator involvement in a large industrial process program

Also share Procedure Case studies of pre-retrofit activity

What is Pre-Installation Impact Evaluation?

Core activity: Project engineering review before savings claims are finalized Pre-installation savings calculation review Baseline characterization Pre-installation metering

Also/possibly: Early free ridership assessment Early post-retrofit review & metering Training PA and their technical advisors

Why Do It?

Benefits for evaluators Evaluator inspection in pre-retrofit

state Input regarding administrator M&V

plan• Opportunity for independent direct M&V

Baseline perspective at time of decision-making

Evaluator-administrator convergence/training

Bottom Line: Increased engineering rigor less variability, greater confidence

in results

Why Do It?

Benefits for program administrators Evaluator-administrator convergence/training Adjustment to savings estimates prior to

incentive calculation Increased depth of engagement with

facilitators Less disturbance to customers

Bottom line: Better realization rates Fewer surprises

Why Not Do It?

Added cost for evaluators and administrators Planning $2k to $10k per project evaluator cost; less but some

admin• Modest ex post savings later

Sunk evaluation costs on projects that don’t matriculate Monthly meetings

Risks added calendar time to processing Short notice rush analysis required Baseline can require research. Admin waits?

Added bureaucracy before closing the deal

How It Works

ID candidate projects

Evaluator review

Evaluator & administrator meet on analysis, baseline, and proposed pre-

installation metering.Pre-install site visit. Possible

metering

Existing facility

New facility

Evaluation review memo

Evaluator & administrator

meet

Post-install site visit

Tracking

How It Works – Screening

Establish screening criteria in advance Example: All over 5 GWh/yr or 10,000 MMBtu/yr All over intermediate size range and

process, complex baseline, capacity expansion, controls, etc

Sample others in intermediate range

Evaluator or administrator can ID projects

How It Works - Variations

Are early evaluator findings advisory or definitive to program?

Is free ridership assessed? Is result shared? Is it considered when setting incentives?

Formality of communication Who does the M&V?

Case Studies

Paper includes four case studiesGood Working together on M&V approach Evaluator influencing administrator on

baseline characterization, and vice versa

Bad Lost sunk costs No consensus on baseline Timing challenges

Summary Pre-Installation Impact Evaluation

Advantages:

Better evaluation engineering & statistical quality

Better realization rates

Fewer bad surprises at end of evaluation

Costs:

More labor

Calendar concerns