Coal Market Outlook According to World Energy Outlook 2015

Sayed RasulID: 1015102008

Some Overview

Coal is a combustible sedimentary rock composed mostly of carbon and hydrocarbons. Coal is composed primarily of carbon along with variable quantities of other elements like hydrogen, sulfur, oxygen, and nitrogen.

Coals are formed when dead plant matter is converted into peat, which in turn is converted into lignite, then Bituminous coal and finally anthracite. This involves biological and geological processes that take place over a long period of time.

Coal Produces 62% of world’s electricity. Most abundant fossil fuel and could easily last at least 200 years.

Advantage of Coal

• Coal is one of the most abundant sources of energy, more so than oil and natural gas.

• Coal is a relatively cheap energy source.• Coal can be easily transported to the power

stations.• Coal can be safely stored and can be drawn

upon to create energy in time of emergency.

Disadvantages of Coal• To dig up coal, we have to create mines which can be

dangerous and cause environmental pollution.• Coal energy is producing tremendous amount of carbon

emissions that results in climate change and global warming.• Coal burning is considered not environmental friendly due to

the production of harmful by-products like nitrogen, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide.

• Transporting coal by lorry and train from the mine to the power station causes pollution.

• Coal is a non-renewable source and will run out in about 300 years.

• Coal miners can be affected by black lung disease and emphysema if they breathe coal dust.

Classification

Coal Reserve (2012)

• USA- About 25% of the world’s total coal reserve is in this country.

• Russia- 18% of the of world’s total reserve.• China- about 13% of world’s total reserves.• Australia- 8.9% of world’s total coal deposits.• India- 7% of world’s total reserve.

Germany, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Canada

Coal Reserve by Region

Coal Demand

Defining the scenariosThere are three core scenarios, which differ in their assumptions about the evolution of energy-related government policies: •The New Policies Scenario; •The Current Policies Scenario; and •The 450 Scenario.

The New Policies Scenario is the central scenario of this Outlook. It includes all policies announced but yet to be implemented.

The Current Policies Scenario takes into consideration only those policies for which implementing measures had been formally adopted.

The 450 Scenario takes a different approach, adopting a specified outcome – the international goal to limit the rise in the long-term average global temperature to two degrees Celsius (2°C) and illustrating how that might be achieved.

World coal demand by different scenarios

Change in coal demand by key region in the New Policies Scenario

Evolution of coal demand in key regions in the New Policies Scenario

Coal demand by key sector and region in the New Policies Scenario

Major net importers of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario

Coal demand in China by coal type and key sector in the New Policies Scenario

United States coal production in the New Policies Scenario

South Africa coal balance in the New Policies Scenario

Southeast Asia coal balance in the New Policies Scenario

Major net exporters of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario

Summary• In the New Policies Scenario global coal demand to 2040 will grow

by 0.4% per year on average, a marked slowdown compared with 2.4% over the past 25 years. Despite coal losing out to renewables as the world’s largest source of electricity generation soon after 2030, it still accounts for 30% of global electricity output by 2040.

• Chinese net import will decline by over 50% to 2040; as the world’s largest coal consumer and producer, shifts in China’s demand have strong repercussions on global coal trade.

• India will become the world’s second-largest coal consumer and producer in the current decade, as its demand nearly triples and production grows more than in any other country.

• The key uncertainties affecting the coal markets are developments in climate and local pollution policies, changes in coal demand prospects in China and growth of production in India.

Thank you for your kind attention