Workshop on the Quantitative Analysis: The PRIO/ETH Contribution to CLICO

Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich

International Relations

Workshop on Quantitative Analysis:

The PRIO/ETH Contribution to CLICO

Tobias Böhmelt

ETH Zurich

[email protected]

Research Objectives

• Collect and code data on cooperative and conflictive water-related

events in 35 Mediterranean and Sahel countries between 1997 and

2009.

• Employ time-series cross-sectional data in quantitative analyses:

political, economic, and climatic factors work as explanatory factors

that drive or mitigate water-related conflict and cooperation.

• Qualitative case studies on countries that may appear as “outliers” in

the quantitative research in order to further theoretical knowledge on

processes of water-related conflict and cooperation.

Why a New Event Data Set?

Models of Inter- or Intrastate Models of Inter- or Intrastate

Conflict

• Impact of water-related factors

on conflict along various

causal pathways

• Limitations:

– Water as a cause of conflict?

– Focus on extreme forms of

conflict

– Absence of conflict

≠cooperation

Issue Coding

• Frequency and intensity of

water-related conflictive and

cooperative events

• Limitations:

– Existing data focus on

international water

cooperation and conflict

– Association of an event with

“water” is frequently only

assumed

Data Collection and Coding

1. Download of Media Articles from BBC Monitoring

• Provides translations of local media sources from around the world.

• Allows extensive content analysis for creating event data – more

comprehensive coverage than Western press agencies such as Reuters.

• Use of other data sources (e.g., Factiva) discussed, but rejected.

• PRIO: Turkey, Israel, Egypt, West Bank & Gaza, Lebanon, Niger, Nigeria,

Senegal, and Chad (total: about 26,000 media articles).

• ETH: Albania, Algeria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, France,

Greece, Italy, Jordan, Libya, Malta, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco,

Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Syria, Tunisia, Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia,

Mali, Mauritania, Somalia, and Sudan (total: about 52,000 media articles).


1. Download of Media Articles from BBC Monitoring

Employed search string:

water* OR lake OR river OR canal OR dam OR stream OR tributary OR

dike OR dyke OR purification OR sewage OR effluence OR drought*

OR irrigation* OR rain* OR fish* OR flood* OR precipitation

78,000 media articles in total.

More than 12,000 water-related events in period under study (so far, 6,250).



2. Coding of Water-Related Events

• Original data structure: one observation per distinct event.

• Event may comprise one-sided actions by individuals, firms, NGOs, and/or

state authorities.

• Event may comprise interactions between these kinds of actors.

• Event is also defined by temporal and geographical dimensions, i.e., there

are clearly defined temporal starting and end points, while the event takes

place in a defined location or region.

• Events that merely “happen” without a specific social influence from the

actors above are excluded.



• More than 25 variables in data set.

• Specifically:

– General information: case, ccode, cname, date, year, location, latitude,

longitude, cluster.

– Event information: event, description, wes_dom, coop, conflict, scale,

impact, violence, actor*, direction, international, int_code.

– Control covariates from media sources: neusource, sourceloc, source,

med_cover.

Data Collection and Coding: Water Events Scale (WES)


• Core variable: Domestic Water Events Scale (WES).

– 13-point ordinal scale, where +6 stands for the most cooperative event

and -6 signifies the most conflictive activity.

– Scale builds upon three dimensions:

• Source dimension (i.e., who causes an event).

• Target dimension (i.e., who is the target of an event).

• Intensity/impact dimension (i.e., how significant is the impact of an

event).

– Intensity/impact dimension: which scale effect(s) on water quality and/or

quantity do we observe at the grass-roots, regionally, country-wide?


WES Value WES Value Description Frequency Percentage

6

Official governmental policies that substantially increase water

quality/quantity for the whole country/society

23 0.37%

5

Official governmental policies that substantially increase water

quality/quantity at a sub-state level

56 0.90%

4

General public's, major firms', and interest groups' activities

that contribute to better water quantity/quality

23 0.37%

3

Official policies or general actions at a moderate level, which

may increase water quality/quantity of the nation or sub-

national entities

660 10.56%

2

Agreements signed or verbal statements given intended to

mobilize greater public support for domestic water issues

692 11.07%

1

Events that increase water quality/quantity at the grass-roots

level and/or with minimal impact

845 13.52%

0

Routine and purposive actions on water issues that neither have

a positive nor a negative impact

2,827 45.23%


–1

Events that decrease water quality/quantity at the grass-roots

level and/or with minimal impact (i.e., small-scale tensions)

415 6.64%

–2

Tensions within governments (intra-state) and between countries

(inter-state) that may affect water quality/quantity at a domestic

level

205 3.28%

–3

General opposition of the public, major firms, and interest

groups toward any official governmental policies

218 3.49%

–4

Official governmental policies that impose minor restrictions on

water quality/quantity

169 2.70%

–5

Official governmental policies that impose major restrictions on

water quality/quantity and affect the population at large

27 0.43%

–6 Physical violence or casualties over water-related issues

90 1.44%

Total 6,250 100%




Quantitative Analyses

3. Cleaning-Up of Collected Information and First Paper

• “Intrastate Water-Related Conflict and Cooperation: A New Event-Data Set.”

Thomas Bernauer, Tobias Böhmelt, Halvard Buhaug, Nils Petter Gleditsch,

Theresa Tribaldos, Eivind Berg Weibust, and Gerdis Wischnath.

• Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association,

March 16-19, 2011.

• Overview of the coding procedures and the data collection process.

• Discusses key challenges and the “pros and cons” of particular solutions to

these challenges.

• Preliminary empirical analysis.

First Empirical Results – Spatial Dispersion (All Events)

First Empirical Results – Spatial Dispersion in Jordan (All Events)

First Empirical Results - Spatial Dispersion in Jordan (Cooperative

Events)

First Empirical Results - Spatial Dispersion in Jordan (Conflictive

Events)

Spatial Dispersion in Jordan (Cooperative & Conflictive Events)

First Empirical Results - Spatial Dispersion in Jordan over Time

(1997)


(1998)


(1999)


(2000)


(2001)


(2002)


(2003)


(2004)


(2005)


(2006)


(2007)


(2008)


(2009)

First Empirical Results – Preliminary Data Patterns

4. Preliminary Data Patterns

• Gizelis and Wooden (2010) suggest that political institutions can perform

mediating roles in the realm of water scarcity.

• Political elites generally seek to satisfy large parts of the electorate to

ensure political survival in democracies (e.g., Bueno de Mesquita, Morrow,

Siverson, and Smith 1999)

• In turn, democracies generally develop and have more effective and

responsive governance systems that help providing a political outlet to the

expression of grievances and to the consequences of environmental risks

such as water scarcity.

• Ultimately, democracies will be more successful in ensuring an efficient

allocation of resources and in adapting to / mitigating potential problems of

water scarcity for the population (Gizelis and Wooden 2010: 446).

Which Factors Drive Water-Related Conflict and Cooperation?

Outlook

5. Qualitative Case Studies and Further Research

• Qualitative research via case studies scheduled for 2012.

• Other projects include:

– Use of geographic information systems (GIS).

– Further uncovering spatial and temporal dynamics.

– The conditions of third-party involvement.

– Etc.

Education

Workshop on the Quantitative Analysis: The PRIO/ETH Contribution to CLICO