Week 1B: Epistemology and method

Epistemologyand method

Chris Hanretty

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What is a science?

A demarcation criterion

Popper and the social sciences

General laws

Meaning and value

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#1:

What is ascience?

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The story of this module

Originally designed toaccompany this bookBook's authors havedifferentepistemologicalstand-pointChoice of title thereforeintriguing

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Some candidates

Physics

Palm-reading Engineering EnglishStudy of evolution Psychology PhilosophyMeteorology Astrology

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Some candidates

Physics Palm-reading

Engineering EnglishStudy of evolution Psychology PhilosophyMeteorology Astrology

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Some candidates

Physics Palm-reading Engineering

EnglishStudy of evolution Psychology PhilosophyMeteorology Astrology

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Some candidates

Physics Palm-reading Engineering English

Study of evolution Psychology PhilosophyMeteorology Astrology

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Some candidates

Physics Palm-reading Engineering EnglishStudy of evolution

Psychology PhilosophyMeteorology Astrology

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Some candidates

Physics Palm-reading Engineering EnglishStudy of evolution Psychology

PhilosophyMeteorology Astrology

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Some candidates

Physics Palm-reading Engineering EnglishStudy of evolution Psychology Philosophy

Meteorology Astrology

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Some candidates

Physics Palm-reading Engineering EnglishStudy of evolution Psychology PhilosophyMeteorology

Astrology

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Some candidates

Physics Palm-reading Engineering EnglishStudy of evolution Psychology PhilosophyMeteorology Astrology

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Some candidates

Physics Palm-reading Engineering EnglishStudy of evolution Psychology PhilosophyMeteorology Astrology

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The candidates

SciencePhysicsEngineeringStudy of evolutionMeterologySome psychology

Not-SciencePalm-readingEnglishSome psychologyAstrologyPhilosophy

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Some characteristics

What unites entries in theScience column?

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Some characteristics (2)

`Objective'

Is taught inuniversities

UsesnumbersSubject of`scientificdisputes'

MakespredictionsCharac-terised byargument

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`Objective'Is taught inuniversities



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Usesnumbers

Subject of`scientificdisputes'


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Makespredictions

Charac-terised byargument

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Strategies

Admit that science does not havenecessary and/or sufficientcharacteristics(cf. Wittgenstein on games)Argue for a criterion standing behindall these

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#2:

A demarcationcriterion

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Karl Popper(1902-1994)

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The problem of induction

We believe, very strongly, that the sunwill rise tomorrowOn what basis do we believe?

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Black swans

The basic problem: induction worksfine until it doesn'tThe example of the black swan(Cygnus atratus)Belief in white swans was almost aswell supported as belief in sun'scontinual rising

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Marxism, FreudianismBoth theories popular in Popper'smilieu; basic claims sound `scientific'Freudianism: patient's mental statecan be explained by interplay of id,ego, superego. State of thesecomponents revealed in unconsciousaction.Marxism: society driven by conflictsbetween owners of capital and sellersof labour

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The `success' of Freudianism

Freud's method of dream analysisseemed to reveal many sublimatedsexual urges. . . but with enough effort, `skilled'analysts can reduce anything to urgesSometimes a cigar is just a cigarThis seems like counting (artificiallyinflated) white swans

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The `success' of Marxism

Many political conflicts seem toinvolve class conflictBut failure to recognize other sourcesof conflictMost notoriously, failure to predictcollapse of capitalism

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The problem

These theories have not giveninstances where they would be shownwrongTime-limit on capitalist overthrow; listof non-sexual imageryIn other words, we need to havepotential falsifiability

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The criterion

A subject is a science if itproduces potentially falsifiablestatements about the world

English? Psychology? Political science?Evolution?

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The criterion


English?

Psychology? Political science?Evolution?

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The criterion


English? Psychology?

Political science?Evolution?

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The criterion


English? Psychology? Political science?

Evolution?

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The criterion


English? Psychology? Political science?Evolution?

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#3:

Popper and thesocial sciences

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Two questions

Do the social sciences satisfy Popper'scriterion?Is there anything else we shouldproperly add?

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Probabilistic statements

Nate Silver's election forecastHad Romney won, would Silver'smodel have been falsified?Many social science claims areprobabilisticcf. M. Rouget example (Hollis)

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A record of failure?

Is it okay to keep failing?Are the general laws we have anygood?

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Successful black boxes?

Problem of data mining (Google Flutrends)Often assumed to be equivalent tofamiliar statement, `correlation 6=causation'Problem is a little bit bigger (stepfunctions, other functions)

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A toy example

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A toy example (2)

Does this allow us to make boldfalsifiable predictions?

Hell yes!Is this social science?Unlikely

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A toy example (2)

Does this allow us to make boldfalsifiable predictions?Hell yes!Is this social science?Unlikely

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Social scienceSomething which produces potentiallyfalsifiable statements, even ifprobabilisticSomething which has as its subjecthuman societiesWhich works with some idea ofmechanisms which operate onhumansi.e., rational choices, roles, values

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#4:

General laws

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Some candidates

The richer a country, the more likely itis to become a democracyDemocracies never go to war witheach otherDemocracies never suffer faminesFirst-past-the-post causes atwo-party system (Duverger's law)

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And mechanisms?

This is a big, big topic. . .Sometimes, the same generalisationcan have multiple rationalesThese are only partly testable

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Where should we spendeffort?

The age of grand theory is overModernization theory died outMore and more data is becomingavailableWe have less grand theory, moretesting theories of the middle-range

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#5:

Meaning andvalue

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Value-driven social science

1. Social science is about values2. But stuff about values is subjective3. Science is not subjective

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Yes, values matter

We research democracy because webelieve it to be a good thingi.e., we value democracyValues enter in to the choice of subjectThey need not affect the analysis

See Machlup for more.

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Value-laden social science

Social scienceinvolves recognizingthings asdemocraciesBut that recognitiondepends on a web ofunderstanding

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Conclusions

Social sciences produce falsifiableclaimsThey are thus scientificProducing falsifiable claims is not allthat they doThey also investigate mechanismsunderpinning these claims

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Conclusions (2)

Many parts of the study of politics donot involve falsifiable claims(e.g., normative political philosophy,analysis of ideology)but this does not mean that they donot have valuerather, that their value is of the samekind as philosophy or literary criticism

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Links

Popper recurs when we talk aboutpredictionMacintyre recurs next week when wetalk about comparison(Parts of) Marxism recur in a topic ofits own

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Education

Week 1B: Epistemology and method