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2014 TYPHOON SEASONTYPHOON RAMMASUNTuesday, July 15, 2014
Rammasun is the strongest storm to threaten the country since Haiyan, a Cat-5 "super typhoon," wiped out nearly
everything in its path when it crossed over the central
Philippines in November, 2013.
RAMMASUN (CAT 3) WAS HEADED FOR MANILLA—THE
FIRST DIRECT HIT ON THE CAPITOL IN FOUR YEARS—ON
JULY 14, 2014
TYPHOON RAMMASUN HEADED TOWARDS MANILLA
PHYSICAL DETAILS
• Typhoon Rammasun, with gusts of up to 160 kph (99 mph) and sustained winds of 130 kph (81 mph) near its centre, hit land over Rapu-Rapu island in the eastern province of Albay,
TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS
• At least 300,000 people have already fled from their homes in Albay province alone.
• However, many people were unwilling to evacuate.
TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS
• Schools were closed.• International flights were
cancelled.• The army was placed on high
alert.
WHAT CAN HAPPEN?
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AND RISK FROM
TYPHOON HAIYAN
HAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK
EXPOSURE
VULNERABILITY LOCATION
RISK
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS (AKA HAZARDS) OF A TYPHOON
• WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)]
• DEBRIS• STORM SURGE/FLOODS• HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)• COSTAL EROSION
WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE
TYPHOONS
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS
STORM SURGE
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
SITING PROBLEMS
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
CAUSES OF RISK
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
Rammasun is expected to bring storm surges of up to
three meters (10 feet) in coastal villages
REMEMBERING TYPHOON HAIYAN
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN DEVASTATED THE PHILIPPINES;
NOVEMBER 8-10, 2013
HAIYAN: A SUPER TYPHOON
HAIYAN REACHED THE PHILIPPINES: FRIDAY, NOV. 8
LANDFALL ON FRIDAY MORNING, NOV. 8
RATED AS PROBABLY THE STRONGEST TYPHOON EVER TO STRIKE THE
PHILIPPINES
ADVANCE EVACUATIONS
• 800,000 people were evacuated to emergency shelters.
AN EVACUATION CENTER
INITIAL IMPACTS IN THE PHILIPPINES
• Wide spread flooding, mudslides, and power outages
• Winds of 380 kph (290 mph)• TACLOBAN hit very hard by the
storm surge with many deaths• Tacloban’s airport destroyed
TACLOBAN (ON LEYTE ISLAND) HIT THE HARDEST
FOUR HOURS OF FEAR AND DESTRUCTION
• Winds flattened hundreds of homes.• Heavy rainfall triggered mudslides and
flash flooding.• A storm surge with waves of up to 10 m
(30 feet) destroyed everything, sweeping people away and drowning thousands.
STORM SURGE
AN AERIAL VIEW• It was like a tsunami," Interior
Secretary Manuel Roxas told Reuters.
• "From a helicopter, you could see the extent of devastation. From the shore and moving a km inland, no structures were left standing.
INITIAL IMPACTS IN THE PHILIPPINES
• Loss of communication• An estimated 10,000 people
dead• Economic losses in the billions
SURVIVOR STORIES
• Survivors of the storm described towering waves that swept away all but the most robust engineered structures.
DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
DESTRUCTION AND DEATH EVERYWHERE
DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
TACLOBAN AIRPORT
SURVIVOR NEEDS• Survivors were in desperate need
of clean drinking water and food• Survivors were temporarily cut off
from aid, and from their families in the Philippines as well as in other countries (e.g., 3 million in the USA)
USA MILITARY FORCES WERE DISPATCHED TO
ASSIST LOCAL OFFICIALS IN WHAT BECAME A
HISTORIC RELIEF EFFORT
Search and Rescue and Relief Efforts Were Hampered by
Landslides and Damaged Road Systems
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
ONCE AGAIN, TYPHOON HAIYAN DEMONSTRATED THAT IT
USUALLY TAKES MULTIPLE DISASTERS BEFORE THE
STRICKEN NATION WILL ADOPT POLICIES TO BECOME DISASTER
RESILIENT
ONCE AGAIN, UNAFFECTED NATIONS USUALLY DON’T
LEARN ANYTHING NEW AND DON’T CHANGE EXISTING
POLICIES ON THE BASIS OF ANOTHER NATION’S
EXPERIENCES
TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES AND MEASURES ARE
NEEDED BY MANY NATIONSPreparedness
Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Wind Engineering Building Code
Time,y Early Warning and EvacuationTimely Emergency Response (including
Emergency Medical Services)Cost-Effective Recovery
BASES FOR POLICIES THAT CALL FOR TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE
EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS
EXPERIENCES WITH MONITORING AND WARNING
EXPERIENCES WITH DISASTER SCENARIO PLANNING
EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION
EXPERIENCES WITH PREVENTION, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION
INTEGRATE GLOBAL EXPERIENCES WITH LOCAL EXPERIENCES
THE CHALLENGE:
POLICY CHANGES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS TYPHOON RESILIENCE
LESSON: ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS ARE THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS
• The people who know: 1) what to expect (e.g., high-velocity winds, rain, flash floods, landslides, and storm surge), 2) where and when it will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare will survive.
LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS COMPLEX
• All kinds of things can go wrong during the emergency response period when the uncontrollable and unthinkable events happen along with the expected events
LESSON: TIMING OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS VITAL
• The “Uncontrollable and Unthinkable” events can significantly hinder the timing of urgent emergency response operations.
LESSON: TIMELY EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION SAVES LIVES
• The people who have timely early warning in conjunction with a community evacuation plan that facilitates getting out of harm’s way from the risks associated with storm surge, high winds, flooding, and landslides will survive.
LESSON: WIND ENGINEERED BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES
• Buildings protected by wind engineering to withstand a typhoon’s high velocity winds will maintain their function, protect occupants and users, and minimize death and injury.
LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES
• Damaged hospitals and medical facilities combined with lack of clean drinking water, food, and medicine, and high levels of morbidity and mortality will quickly overrun the local community’s capacity for emergency health care.
LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PROVIDES AID
• The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy by itself is not enough to ensure typhoon disaster resilience.
CREATING TURNING POINTS FOR TYPHOON DISASTER
RESILIENCE
USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER AND ACCELERATE THE CREATION OF TURNING
POINTS
THE PEOPLE OF THE PHILIPPINES HAVE HAD MANY
OPPORTUNITIES TO LEARN VITAL LESSONS
FROM PAST TYPHOONS OF ALL SIZES MAKING LANDFALL THERE
The Philippines has more than enough experience with typhoons for action.