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Hidden Triggers: Propelling Low Income Students into College and Careers
John Cronin, Ph.D.Vice President of Education ResearchNWEA
Is college readiness really the goal?
96% of minority parents and 92% of minority students believe that college completion is very important.
Source – 2004 United Negro College Fund Survey
College readiness aligns with parent and student aspirations
• College completion grew from 25% to 41% between 1980 and 2014.
• College completion rates for traditionally disadvantaged minorities doubled.
• The proportion of women completing college exceeds the proportion of men and the gap is growing.
Who is completing college?
Percent of adults 25 to 29 who have completed a bachelors degree 1972-2015
Source: U.S. Census (2015) – Current Population Survey retrieved from http://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/data/cps/historical/index.html
Change in Median Earnings by Gender- 1990 - 2013
Source: 1990 Census; 2013 American Community Survey
The hidden “Triggers”
• Preparing for an upwardly mobile career.
• Getting and keeping academics on track.
• Maximizing the probability of graduation (high school, career training, college).
Preparing for an upwardly mobile career
Kids from high income families less often choose career focused majors
Source: Kim Weeden, National Center for Educational Statistics
Kids from high income families choose career oriented majors less often.
The share of workers required to have a license has increased from just over
5% in the 1950s to nearly
30% in 2008.
Source: 2013 Harris Interactive Poll
Source – U.S. Department of Labor, National Longitudinal Survey 1979-2010Graph is reference from Money Matters, National Public Radio, March 19, 2014
What careers contribute to upward and downward mobility?
College major by SAT scoreBubble size indicates relative number of students intending to pursue a this major
Being prepared
Predictive variables measure four constructs
Test scores
College aspirations & expectations
SES
Teacher perceptions of student readiness
Teachers are good at
• Assessing work habits• Assessing general academic readiness• Assessing attitude toward school
Teachers are good at
Dropout Prediction Teacher Model
% Correct 82 88
% Incorrect 11 12
Unsure 7
But teachers greatly under-predict the likelihood of college attendance
Ethnic Group Correct Incorrect Go Incorrect Not Go
Anglo 63% 4% 18%
African American
56% 3% 24%
Hispanic 52% 4% 23%
Native American
50% 5% 28%
NWEA assessments
• Can help project progress toward college readiness at earlier grades.
• Help teachers set goals and plan instruction to get students on track.
The NWEA College Explorer Tool
• Projects a student’s college entrance exam range from their reading and mathematics scores on NWEA MAP.
• Shows the colleges in which a students score would be competitive with the entrance exam scores achieved by entering students.
• Provides detailed information to parents about college costs, completion rates, financial aid, average student debt load, and post-graduation income that can help families more effectively plan at earlier ages.
The NWEA College Explorer Tool
EPIC – Four Dimensions of college readiness
• Post-secondary career awareness• Post-secondary costs• Financial aid• College culture• Self-advocacy• Admissions requirements
Adapted from EPIC – The Solution Equipping Students with the Four Keys . Retrieved fromhttps://www.epiconline.org/Issues/college-career-readiness/the-solution/
College readiness should NOT be defined by a single test score associated to a single cut score.
The FAFSA ExperimentTreatment – Low-Income families (under $45,000 per year) filing taxes through H & R Block were offered support in filling out and submitting the FAFSA paperwork. Enrollment and financial aid rates were compared for this group relative to control groups that received “aid eligibility information” and “general information on college costs and aid”
The importance of simplification
The FAFSA Experiment ResultsTreatment group families showed a 25% increased rate of college enrollment (34.8% vs. 26.5%)
Treatment group families received Pell grants at a 33% higher rate than control families (39.6% vs. 29.8%)
The importance of simplification
Concluding thoughts
• The value of prediction is to help students see what is possible and to avoid under-selecting colleges.
• Academic knowledge alone isn’t enough. Getting a complete picture of each student is important. Getting that picture efficiently is equally important.
• College Knowledge is important and is relatively easy to address
The link to the NWEA College Explorer Tool is at
https://www.nwea.org/research/innovation-leadership/research-data-galleries/mapping-the-road-to-college/
https://public.tableau.com/profile/jfcnwea#!/vizhome/careerbook1/Dashboard1
