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TOWARDS PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR
POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY (PEPPER)
EXAMPLES: TOKAI REGION IN JAPAN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
2015: EARTHQUAKES ARE A
GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARD
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
TECTONIC
DEFORMATION
EARTHQUAKE
TSUNAMI
GROUND
SHAKING
FAULT RUPTURE
FOUNDATION
FAILURE
SITE
AMPLIFICATION
LIQUEFACTION
LANDSLIDES
AFTERSHOCKS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/LOSS
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF
UTILITIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO NON-
STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
TSUNAMIS
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL
AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
10 MILLION EARTHQUAKES
• Only about 110 of the 10 million
earthquakes of all sizes that
occur somewhere in the world
each year are large enough and
close enough to a community
to cause a disaster, - - -
DILEMMAS
• - - - which creates a multitude
of local and regional dilemmas
about what to do, both before
and after the quake, to shorten
the recovery process.
WHERE WILL THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER IN JAPAN OCCUR?
• A difficult question, but ---
• It is the one that was being asked
before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU
earthquake catastrophe, and TOKAI
was the answer then and now.
MAIN IDEA
Each earthquake disaster throughout the
world provides insights on: 1)
Preparedness, 2) Protection/prevention,
3) Early Warning (Tsunami), 4) Emergency
Response, and 5) Recovery and
Reconstruction
A probabilistic ground shaking hazard
map integrates key aspects of geology,
geophysics, and seismology in a
consistent way to define the Tokai
hazard model, which can be combined
with Exposure and Vulnerability models
to define the Tokai risk model.
TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:
TECTONICS
• The Nankai trough marks the
boundary where the Philippines
tectonic plate is subducting
beneath Japan (which is a part
of the Eurasian plate).
TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:
TECTONICS
• At present, the land near
Shizuoka is sinking toward the
Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr.
• Japan’s Earthquake Research
Institute is on record that the
Tokai earthquake is eminent.
TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:
TECTONICS
• Scientists believe that the
recurrence interval of large-
magnitude earthquakes along
this zone is 100-150 years.
PRE-EARTHQUAKE
MONITORING
• The Government of Japan is currently
deploying strain meters throughout the
Tokai area to monitor the slip with a
goal of providing as much advance
warning as possible before the Tokai
zone earthquake occurs.
PRE- EARTHQUAKE
PLANNING
• The Government of Japan has a pre-
earthquake action plan based on the
concept of “pre-slip.”
• Pre-slip is based on laboratory
experiments that indicate that a rock
undergoes slip for a short, but
predictable time, before failing.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IN THE
TOKAI AREA
• Landslides are likely at 6,449
specific locations
• 58,402 specific structures and their
related infrastructure are
susceptible to strong ground
shaking, damage, power outages,
and quake-related fires
Simulating what Southern California is
likely to experience in the inevitable
future major earthquake
- Source: US Geological Survey
Southern California is prone to moderate-to-large-to great-magnitude earthquakes, because it is located near the boundary between two major tectonic plates marked by the San Andreas fault, where much, but not all, of the stress release happens.
The scenario is based on the
Southern California Hazard,
Exposure, Vulnerability and Risk
models developed from
monitoring, research, and post-
earthquakes studies
(especially before and after the
1994 Northridge earthquake)
The “Big One” occurred on the San
Andreas fault in 1857, whereas,
many notable moderate-to-large-
magnitude earthquakes have
occurred on “blind” thrust faults
(e.g., Northridge in 1994) in the area
BE READY to recover from an inevitable earthquake that could
cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion in economic losses.
Identification of the physical, social and
economic consequences of a major
earthquake in Tokai, Japan or Southern
California will enable end users to
identify what they can change now—
—before the earthquake—to
shorten recovery from the
catastrophic impacts after the
inevitable “big ones” occur,
probably in the near future.
GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
FLOODS
SEVERE WIND STORMS
EARTHQUAKES
DROUGHTS
LANDSLIDES
WILDFIRES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
TERRORISM
INCREASED TECHNICAL
AND POLITICL CAPACITY
OF COMMUNITY TO COPE
INCREASED OWNERSHIP
AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE
AND EXPERIENCE
IMPROVE ON PAST
PERFORMANCE
YOUR
COMMUNITY
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
GOAL: DISASTER
RESILIENCE
•PROTECTION
•PEPAREDNESS
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.
FIVE PILLARS OF
RESILIENCE