The Web: evolution and perspective

May 12, 2014

University of Milano BicoccaURBEUR-QUASI PhD Programme

Internet today: problems and perspectives

Roberto PolilloDepartment of Informatics, Systems and CommunicationsUniversity of Milano Bicocca

Topics

A (very) short history of the WebA summary of the milestones / paradigms of the evolution of the Web: 1990-today

A (very) short discussion of the driving forces A summary of market mechanisms that drive the growth of the Web online services, and resulting problems

R.Polillo - March 2015

The evolution of the Web

From the first Web site (1991), the Web is continuously growing and changing its nature

In parallel, telephony is drastically changed (fixed → mobile)

Drivers of this evolution: tecnology, market, people behaviour


Changing Internet paradigms

1995+

Corporate sites Web portals Search engines E-commerce Web as an interface ….

HYPERTEXT, eCOMMERCE

2005+

Blogs Social networks UGC Cooperative

creation Sharing Reusable contents …

SOCIAL MEDIA1985+

E-mail File transfer Newsgroups ….

COMMUNICATION NETWORK


2015+MOBILE WEB

Mobile devices Cloud computing Geolocalization Camera phone Augmented reality Electronic wallet


Mobile devices

Desktop + laptop

Worldwide installed base


2015+MOBILE WEB

Mobile devices Cloud computing Geolocalization Camera phone Augmented reality Electronic wallet

2020+INTERNET OF THINGS



ICT is pervasive


Internet traffic growth (World)

http://gizmodo.com/5614841/

web

video

p2p


Paradigm #1: Web 1.0

Web 1.0

MS ExplorerAmazoneBayIPO Netscape

1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002

First web siteat

CERN

W3CNetscape NavigatorYahoo

Mosaic

GoogleMozilla

NapsterPaypal


Narrowband connection


Web 1.0 Typical applications

Corporate Web sites Portals and search engines eCommerce [Corporate portals]


Web 1.0 main success stories

http://www.amazon.com from 1995Current size:http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=amazon.com

http://www.ebay.com from 1995Current size:http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ebay.com

http://www.yahoo.com from 1994, always among the first 5 more visited sites


IPO (Initial Public Offering) frenzy

dot.com frenzy started by Netscape IPO (Aug 9, 1995) Founded 18 months earlier 16 M$ revenues, no profit Market cap at IPO: 1 B$ (!)

Large venture capital, to bring startups to IPO Many irrealistic business models NASDAQ bubble, then fall (2000-2001) Silicon Valley stops completely


The "dot.com bubble”

MS ExplorerAmazoneBayIPO Netscape

1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002

First web site atCERN

W3CNetscape NavigatorYahoo

Mosaic

GoogleMozilla

NapsterPaypal

Max NASDAQ

9/11

MinNASDAQ

Nasdaq Composite Index

March 10 2000: index at 5132

March 10 2000: index at 5132

Oct 9 2002: index at 1114Oct 9 2002:

index at 1114


Paradigm #2: Web 2.0

Web 2.0 key aspects

Social media:Not the hypertext pages, but the user is the leading actor User interaction throu the Web: one-to-many (blog), many-to-many (social media) Services to host User Generated Content (UGC), to be shared with other users Collective creation User rating in e-commerce "Market are conversations" (Cluetrain manifesto, 1999-2000)

The Web as a computing platform: Online services, virtualization Perpetuale beta Component and service mashups Rich Internet Applications (RIA) technologies


Web 2.0

2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Twitter, Slideshare, ScribdGoogle DocsYouTube

, Joomla, NingFlickr,

Facebook

Skype WordPressBlogger LinkedIn iPhone

GrouponAndroid, Dropbox

FoursquareWhatsApp

iPad, PinterestInstagram

Google+

Wikipedia

(In red start of mobile Web)

Internet traffic v

ideo


Xmas 2006

Media acknowledge the paradigm change


Another bubble?

Netscape IPO

Google IPOAug 19 2004

LinkedIn IPO(NYSE)

Facebook IPO

Twitter IPO(NYSE)

1994

1995

1997

1996

March 10 2000:5049

(Indice Nasdaq 1994-2013)R.Polillo - March 2015

In the meanwhile, telephony changes…


Firs

t Web

site

at C

ERN

Mos

aic

(NCS

A)

W3C

; Net

scap

e Nav

igat

or

Netsc

ape

IPO,,

MS

Expl

orer

, Am

azon

, eBa

y

Boom

and

fall

of N

ASDAQ

G

oogl

e IP

O; F

aceb

ook

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12

WEB 1.0 WEB 2.0crisisPre-history

Googl

e fo

unde

d9/

11; W

ikip

edia

Fina

ncia

l cris

i

iPho

ne, A

ndro

id

Twitt

er

iPad

FB IP

O

Nasdaq Composite Index

YouT

ube

Internet traffic

vid

eo


SMS

2 G

Nokia 5110

GSM (candybar)SMS, watch, sveglia, rubrica, calcolatrice, rubrica, giochi, suonerie

MMS

WAP

2.5 G

Motorola V3 RAZR

"Feature phone"GPRS (candybar, clamshell) + MMS,,photocamera, email, (Internet)

Touch phone

iPhone+ multitouch, sensors, GPS, app, …

3 G

Blackberry

"Smartphone"+ alphanumeric kb, PDA, video, GPS, radio, MP3, OS, …Mobile telephony

TIM, Omnitel

Firs

t Web

site

at C

ERN

Mos

aic

(NCS

A)

W3C

; Net

scap

e Nav

igat

or

Netsc

ape

IPO,,

MS

Expl

orer

, Am

azon

, eBa

y

Boom

and

fall

of N

ASDAQ

G

oogl

e IP

O; F

aceb

ook

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12Goo

gle

foun

ded

9/11

; Wik

iped

ia

Fina

ncia

l cris

i

iPho

ne, A

ndro

id

Twitt

er

iPad

FB IP

O

YouT

ube


IP telephony

Skype Internet based video-telephony, free Starting 2003, acquired by eBay in 2005, then by

Microsoft in 2011 (8,5 B$) 2012: 700 ml accounts; one third of all international

calls pass through Skype Jan 2013: 50 ml concurrent users

WhatsApp Free SMS via IP Started in 2009, acquired by Facebook in 2014 (19 B$)


Mobile cellular subscriptions (total and per 100 inhabitants)



Paradigm #3: Mobile Web

Apple iPhone and iPad

2007 2010


Web 2.0

2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Twitter, Slideshare, ScribdGoogle DocsYouTube

, Joomla, NingFlickr,

Facebook

Skype WordPressBlogger LinkedIn iPhone

GrouponAndroid, Dropbox

FoursquareWhatsApp


Google+

Wikipedia

(In red start of mobile Web)

Internet traffic v

ideo


Android

Linux based mobile OS Initially developed by Android Inc., acquired by Google

in 2005 Open-source First android phone: end 2008 Today the largest market share for mobile OS


Camera eyes: QRCODE


Augmented reality


Augmented reality


Augmented reality


But we cannot do everything with a small, portable device…

Mob

ile a

nd c

loud

com

putin

g ar

e st

rong

ly rel

ated

CLOUD

Tks Lara Ciccarelli per i disegniR.Polillo - March 2015

And now…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErpNpR3XYUw apr 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNATuCkRWFE feb 2013


Smart watches


Driving forces

Network effects

More users of a service → more attractive the service ("positive externalities")

Examples:•Telephone•Sms•Skype•Facebook•WhatsApp•….


Penetration of fixed telephony in the USA


Penetration of social media

http://b.qr.ae/10CAuAB

Instagra

m(approx)


Facebook

http://thinksocialmedia.com/tag/growth/ R.Polillo - March 2015

Positive externalities: consequences

The number of subscribers of services based on networks can grow extremely fast

When there are many subscribers, they may accept to pay an higher price for the service

Typical example: a service is initially free to grow the user base, then paid


Positive feedback

If a product / service with positive externalities gains a larger market share with respect to its competitor, it will obtain larger and larger market shares, toward the 100% market share

W.Brian Arthur, “Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy”, 1994

« For whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them. »

Matthew, 25-29

Positive feedback,"Law of increasing

returns","Winner takes all"


http://bit.ly/VIIoX1

Product with positive externalities

Product without externalities


Consequences

First mover advantage: he who gains market shares before his competitor has a very large competitive advantage

Butterfly effect: the success of a technology may depend on fortuitous facts which afford small advantages at the beginning, which start an "avalanche effect" which may have nothing to do with its technical qualities

Standard de facto: computer industry is dominated by de-facto standards dictated by first movers (de-iure standards aften fail)


Example: Facebook vs Myspace


Growth: from linear to exponential

t

Internet "Big Five"

(born 1975)

Devices, Apps & content

(born 1998)

Ads(born1975)

Software(born 1994)

e-commerce

(born 2004)

Ads ←Main Business

Data at Nov 2014, (previous12 months)Source: Wolframalpha

40

21

13

3

Bill

ion U

SD


The myth of free services

The prevalence of business models in which it is not evident who pays for what

N-side markets

"There is no free lunch

The question is how you are paying it

and if you are willing to do it"

Anonymous


Business models based on advertising

Product / service

Google, Facebook, …

Google, Facebook, …

User info

Subscribers

Targeted ads

Online services


Some conclusions

Where are we now and where are we going?

The two sides of the net


The two sides of the net - 1

Free services

The end of the privacy”

We stop paying with money, but withinformation about ourselves The citizen as a consumer



Every information at our fingertips

…. but unreliable”

“The distinction between trained experts and uninformed amateurs becomes dangerously blurred, truth becomes a commodity to be bought, sold, packaged and reinvented “ (A.Keen)



Individualized assistance

The “filter bubble””

The variety of information is reduced by filtering algorithms, which filter away what we and our social network do not "like”“Imagine a world where you never discover new ideas” (E.Parisier)



Freedom ofexpression

Ease of control”

Our opinions can be easily monitoredE.g. E.Snowden case



Augmentedsocialization

Social interaction overload500 ml photos shared daily on Facebook

The “dictatorship” of notification systems”



Powerful cognitive

augmentation

Unknown cognitive reshaping ”

“Is Google making us stupid?” (N.Carr)



The quality of access

The end of the “net neutrality””

What we access online may be regulated and filtered by complex, multi-sided market agreements



The rapid growth of technological

innovation

Job loss

“The effect of today’s technology on tomorrow’s jobs will be immense – and no country is ready for it” (The Economist, Jan 2014)


It is a difficult world, take care of it!


Thank you!

www.rpolillo.it


Esempio: i servizi Web da inizio secolo

2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

PayPal

Twitter, Slideshare, Scribd

YouTube, Joomla, NingFlickr,

FacebookSkype, WordPress,

LinkedIniPhone

Android, Dropbox

WhatsApp


Google+

Google Drive

Social Web

Mobile Web

Web 1.0


Education

The Web: evolution and perspective