The Future Starts Today

Speech: 10^7 bits TribesWriting: 10^11 bits City culturesPrinting: 10^17 bits Renaissance Industrial societyDigital: 10^25 bits ??? culture

Donald Robertson: New Renaissance

Gutenberg Encyclopedia

… but our brains are still in the speech learning stage

The Future Starts TodayWorking the Future

Jyrki J.J. Kasvi

Take us prophets with a pinch of salt ”There is no reason for any individual to have a computer

in their home.” Ken Olson, President of DEC, World Future Society Convention, 1977

"You aren't going to turn passive consumers into active trollers on the Internet." Stephen Weiswasser, senior VP, ABC television, 1989

“Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.” Sir Alan Sugar, 2005

By 2015 one third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots US Department of Defense, 2006

“By 2015–2020 every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, “ The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007

When it comes to information society, science fiction has hit the mark much better But how about robotics? Popular culture has formed our attitudes and perceptions on robots and robotic society

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E.g. ”Brain pacer”

Science fiction has also inspired developers of ICT (True Names, Neuromancer, …)

Euro debt crises come and goTrue megatrends reshape our societies for good Climate change and environmental sustainability

– A growing part of economic growth is going to be used on emission control and adaptation to climate change

Global demographic change– The average Finnish age is about 40 years

• Half of Finnish voters using their vote are pensioners - a retired nation

– In developing countries the great generations are becoming adults

• Every third Egyptian is under 15 years of age Global networking and dependency

– The rise of BRIC countires to economic, cultural and military superpowers New technologies are reshaping our societies

– ICT now penetrates the structures of our society

18.04.2023 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 8

Finnish dependency ratio collapses … right about now

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People under 15 and over 65 years of age per 100 working age people

0-14 yr olds Over 65 yr olds

Megatrends converge, e.g. robot baby seals were used to comfort elderly Japanese who had lost everything in the tsunami

(NHK Video screenshot)

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Running out of … everything

With current usage we run out of (New Scientist) indium, terbium, hafnium and lead on this decade silver, tin, antimony and uranium on next decade Nickel, platinum, tantalum, zinc, chrome, copper and gold on this century

New technologies influence demand for raw materials E.g. fuel cells require loads of platinum

– Street dust is already “mined” for platinum falling off from car catalysers– 1,5 / 1.000.000 street dust particles can be platinum

Efficient solar cells would be on market if there were enough indium and gallium China has 95% of know reserves of rare earths and controls also African mines

– The civil war in Congo is a war to control local tantalum mines Past economic growth has been based on expanding

consumption of raw materials and energy Future growth has to be based on increasing raw material productivity China is already buying and storing electronic waste

Ashley Felton: Public domain

A future mine

Verace Sustainability Report 2006

Why make pulp and paper in Finland in the future…• from slowly growing expensive trees?• far away from still growing paper markets?• with Finnish labour costs?

Finland was one of the winners of globalization


The World in 2050’s

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Of course economy does not develop linearly like this, but if it would:

• Asia returns back to the centre of the World

• Europe probably misses its chance to stay a world power and becomes a tourist attraction to Asians, Brazilians and Indians.


Technology is our only change to prosperAdaptation to ageing population, global competition and climate change requires a productivity leap! Pioneers will reap the profits!

Digitalisation penetrates everything from exercise to housing Internet shopping, augmented reality, smart buildings, biosensors, …

Robotisation brings robots from factory floors to living rooms E.g. transportation and agriculture are going to become automated in 2020’s

Artificial intelligences automate mental jobs Stock market, journalism, social services, … IBM Watson has been opened for public use

3d-printing revolutionalises manufacturing Manufacturing, logistics and shopping change The role of design increases


You drink milk milked by a robot.


Digitalisation is only just beginning The steam engine invented in the late 17th

century revolutinalised economies and societies in the early 19th century Education, labour market, politics, economy, family, … E.g. schools are still following an industrial paradigm E.g. our immaterial property rights system with patents and copyrights

Digital technology invented on the 1940’s is now reshaping our societies and economies just as quickly and profoundly What is the home, school, work place, labour union, … of 2030’s like?

A child going to first grade is still working on 2080’s! And (s)he is not taught to use computers even in high schools

”A harvester is just a PC in a special box.””It is hard to find ppl with programming skills to operate harvesters.”

CC 3.0 SA BY Heikki Valve

Digitalisation penetrates work


E.g. traffic becomes service Robot cars come to market by

year 2020 Volvo develops autonomous trucks Legislation and attitudes bigger challenges than technology

Car utilisation multiplies Only a third of the current number of cars is going to be needed Jobs in car manufacturing and selling diminish New jobs in vehicle AI development and ”mobility operator” business

Road investments are made for decades Forecasts are based on the assumption that people own and drive their cars New jobs needed for drivers and road builders

The logistic chain of Internet shopping reaches your home door New jobs required for salespeople New jobs creaded in logistics


Lockheed


Robots come to our living rooms Teller machines have replaced bank clerks

Remember going to bank every otherday just to get some cash?

But are teller machines robots or just clever automatons?

Vacuum cleaners and lawn movers haven been replaced by simple single task robots Well defined limited tasks are the first to be taken over by AI’s

“Intelligent” washing machines analyze your laundry and autonomously decide how to wash it Intelligent appliances make smart homes

Robot police are coming to our streets But aren’t iRobot 510 PackBots just remote controlled machines?

Does military/police iRobot PackBot pack the same technologies as iRobot Roomba?


Robots are coming to our working places Productivity explosion corresponding to industrialisation

Stupid industrial jobs are going the way of stupid agricultural jobs In 20 years a third of current jobs will be replaced by AI’s and robots … and agricultural robots are remaking agriculture too

Totally new industries not viable with human labor E.g. automatic waste sorting

Appliances and machinery become autonomous and networked Your car tells your house that you are

coming home: Warm the sauna. Your Polar stress sensor informs the

fridge: Cool another beer.ZenRobotics Recycler is a true robot reacting to its environment instead of repeating preordained moves.

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If I were a farmer I would starttaking coding lessons right now

Media revolution Internet has already replaced television

Finns spend as much time in Internet as watching TV Watcher controlled ipTV replaces broadcast TV

E-readers replace newspapers and books Bookstores are facing the fate of record stores

Games have been a bigger industry than movies for 10 years Finnish game development industry needs 600 new employees every year.

Mail delivery is dvindling Paper bills and newspapers are disappearing Delivery of Internet shopping

New competency requirements Life management skills

Hot to fit work, family and life together

Competency management skills Life long updating of competencies

Knowledge management skills Information fatigue is a major occupational hazard in information society

What about ICT competencies? ICT competencies should be self evident citizen skills Even young people have trouble using computers for something else than social

media and gaming

Basic-Program ming


Information society citizen skills Basic ICT use skills

Lacking in every age group Media reading and writing skills

Everybody can be a mass media Journalistic principles and amateur media

Data security skills You cannot trust even respected data security companies any more

Digital social capital How to be civil in social media

How and where do we learn these skills? Finland is one of the only countries in Europe where ICT is not compulsory at school

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Backslashes to be expected Early 19th century weaving machines were

1st generation industrial automation Industry, working life and society changed faster than

people and world economy were able to adapt

Resulting in violent luddite revolts Death penalty for destruction of a machine in the U.K.

In the economic race of companies andnations no-one can afford to take a breather and think Forerunner corporations and nations enjoy both the benefits and the risks

How do we direct a share of the productivity increase created with robots and AI’s into retraining, social benefits etc. that would soften the impact on people’s lives? … without hindering utilization of the possibilities of new technologies


Please welcome our new computer overlords

30.9.2010 www.kasvi.org 31

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U.S. Army Photo