The future-of-social-networks

The Future Of Social NetworksCharlene LiVice President & Principal AnalystCo-author of GroundswellForrester Research

March 4, 2008

2Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.


They are online with their social networks



Theme

Social networks will be like air.


Components of social networks

Profile

Relationships

Activities

Business model

Universal identity

A single social graph

Social context for activities

Social influence defines marketing value


My multiple identities


Universal identity

[email protected]

[email protected]

Mobile number


Universal identity foundations

• Federation (OpenID approach)

• A few major players will serve as major federation focal points

» Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.

• All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together

» Data Portability Group is the beginning


Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web

“We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically:

•Ownership of their own personal information, including:

» their own profile data

» the list of people they are connected to

» the activity stream of content they create;

•Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and

•Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.”

- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington

http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web


My Facebook social graph

MissingColleagues

ParentsExtended familySchool parents

NeighborsBabysitter

Walking group


My real social graph is much more complex


Let’s end the insanity


Relationships today are explicit – and a pain

Twitter

Facebook

LinkedIn

Plaxo


New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents

Millions of regular users

Search & deep content

Ad and content networks

Relationship maps


Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based


What people do today on social networks


Dave has a nice book review on Facebook


But it would be more helpful on Amazon

“See friends’ reviews”


Search based on what my friends finds

relevant

See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of

itCompare daily portfolio performance to friends’

Elevate stories tagged by friends –

anywhere

How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks


The under-rated value of networks


Endorsement value depends on your network

• Your authority on the specific topic

• Your network’s interest and authority on the topic

• The trust level among your network on the topic


The future business model for social networks

• Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable

• Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*

• Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals

* From Marian Salzman, JWT


Walled garden

services

Portal aggregators

Evolution of open platforms

1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013

Search freedom

Data portability

Ubiquitous social networks


Recommendations

• Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation

• Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in

• Develop social applications that have meaning

• Integrate social networks into existing activities

• Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks


Charlene Li

+1 650.581.3833

[email protected]

www.forrester.com

groundswell.forrester.com

Thank you

Education

The future-of-social-networks