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The future of higher education in the digital eraAdrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Image: Visit Britain / Britain on viewhttp://bit.ly/1Uyotv7
Can we predict the future?• Futurist predictions in 1997 book for the year 2025
– Roughly 66% accuracy for ‘on track’ predictions– Similar to 68% accuracy from futurists in 1967
predicting 30 years later
Hines, A. World Future Review. 2009
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
What makes a good futurist?
Forecast Accuracy
Experience(Ability)
Employer size(Resources)
Number of firms and industries followed(Complexity)
Clement, M.B. Journal of Accounting and Economics. 1999
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
What makes a good futurist?• The best forecasters of world politics:
– Scored higher on intelligence and political knowledge– More open-minded cognitive styles– Benefited from probability training– Profited from better working environments & teams– Spent more time deliberating and updating
forecasts
Mellers, B. et al. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. 2015
What makes a good futurist?• Exceptionalism lies in quantitative trend forecasting
– Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns– Certain kinds of progress are exponential, not linear
http://bit.ly/KurzweilBigThink
What do futurists do?
• Illustration by David Plunkert
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Analytical Framework for Futurism• Framing
– What’s happening right now?• Scanning
– What do the trends tell us about tomorrow?• Describing
– What are some potential futures?• Visioning
– How do we want to shape the future?• Planning
– What is our roadmap for shaping the future?
http://profuturists.org/futurists
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Analytical Framework for Futurism• Framing
– What’s happening right now?• Scanning
– What do the trends tell us about tomorrow?• Describing
– What are some potential futures?• Visioning
– How do we want to shape the future?• Planning
– What is our roadmap for shaping the future?
http://profuturists.org/futurists
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Framing - Will the change matter?• Pew Research Center survey of 1,021 “Internet experts”
on the future of higher education
http://bit.ly/FutureHighEd
Environmental Scanning
Environmental Scanning: What it is, how to do it… Thinking Futures. 2009
http://bit.ly/EnviroScan
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Environmental Scanning with STEEP
• STEEP =–Society–Technology–Environmental–Economy–Political
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Society
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Image: http://blog.arkieva.com/my-network-design-is-not-your-network-design/
Society – massification continues• Demand for higher education is rising
Ho Mok, et al. Higher education governance in crisis: a critical reflection on the massification of higher education, graduate employment and social mobility. Journal of Education and Work. 2015
http://bit.ly/EnviroScan
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Society – Vocational focus for learning• “Now, this model of liberal arts education is under threat.
Students come to college hell-bent on learning something that will make them employable.”
• “This is an understandable response to the economic uncertainties of our age, and to the extraordinary cost of an education […].”
• “Whether eighteen-year-olds are experiencing this economic anxiety themselves, or whether it is being hammered into them by their parents, I don’t know.”
http://bit.ly/whatishigheredfor
Society – Teaching & research• Are teaching and research compatible?
http://bit.ly/CAPsurvey2007
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Society - Mature Enterprise Syndrome• “…American higher education has become what,
in the business world, would be called a mature enterprise: increasingly risk averse, at times self-satisfied, and unduly expensive.”
• “Without serious self-examination and reform, institutions of higher education risk falling into the same trap [as other failed industries], seeing their market share substantially reduced and their services increasingly characterized by obsolescence.”
Spellings Report. US Department of Education. 2006
http://bit.ly/SpellingsReport
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Society - Mature Enterprise Syndrome• “It is harder to innovate in a mature enterprise.”
White, et al. Innovations in Higher Education: Implications for the Future. New Directions for Higher Education
http://bit.ly/NewInnovationsHigherEd
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Society - Questions• Will higher education innovate or lose to competitors?
• Will demand for higher education continue to rise?
• Will certain countries choose to change the relationship between teaching and research?
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Technology
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Image: http://sdtimes.com/idcs-top-10-technology-predictions-2015/
Technology – Open Education• Open educational resources (1-5 years)
– Students need lower cost content– Industry needs to get more flexible with product offerings– Intellectual property law needs to progress
Mintz, S. The Future of Higher Education. InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Technology – 3D Printing• 3D Printing (1-5 years)
– New options for personalization reduce demand for non-customized in-store goods
– Gateway to more sustainable production– Become a valuable tool (or toolmaker) for researchers
across fields
http://bit.ly/3Dprintfuture
Image: http://bit.ly/1i9OgbZ
Technology – Virtual Reality• Virtual and augmented reality (1-5 years)
– Provided viable distance-learning options– Help scale delivery of classroom experiences– By 2030s, “virtual reality will begin to feel 100% real”
http://bit.ly/KurzweilPredicts
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Technology - Gamification• Gamification in pedagogy (5-10 years)
– “Gamification can motivate students to engage in the classroom, give teachers better tools to guide and reward students, and get students to bring their full selves to the pursuit of learning.”
– “It makes sense to try to utilize [game] concepts to improve education. But if we want to make lasting significant changes, we have to reinvent the whole system.” – Prof. Atsusi Hirumi
http://bit.ly/EduGamificationLee and Hammer. Academic Exchange Quarterly. 2011
Firth. Pegasus: The Magazine of the University of Central Florida. 2015
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Technology – Modular Curricula• Personalized curricula, modularization &
hybrid degrees (5-10 years)– Help students adapt to changes in job
market signals– Modularizing curricula provides clearer
metrics for employers with unique needs
Mintz, S. The Future of Higher Education. InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
http://bit.ly/FastCompanyFuture
Hullinger, J. This is the future of college. Fast Company. 2015
Technology – Analytics• Learning analytics enabled by more sensors (5-10 years)
– “These tools offer innovative ways to predict student success, measure achievement of learning outcomes, and drive improvements in admissions, pedagogy, and student support services.”
Mintz, S. The Future of Higher Education. InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Image: http://bit.ly/1LUPq4G
Technology – Analytics• Learning analytics enabled by more sensors (5-10 years)
– “And newer endeavors […] can alert students to toxic course combinations and provide an early warnings of at-risk behavior to faculty, advisers, and the students themselves.”
Mintz, S. The Future of Higher Education. InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEdImage: http://bit.ly/1LUPq4G
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Technology - Biometrics• Biometrically-verified online identity systems (5-10 years)
– Physical traits & behavioural signs inform learning analytics– Users want to protect valuable digital identities– No more passwords
Image: http://bit.ly/1K3Qdg0
Technology – Global Brain (AI-enabled)• Collective knowledge mapping with Global Brain (10-20 years)
– Mapping known vs. unknown reveals opportunities– Contributions factor into learning analytics
– Human level intelligence by 2029, predicts Kurzweil
O’Reilly, T. Towards a Global Brain. GreenBiz.com
http://bit.ly/GlobalBrainTim
http://bit.ly/KurzweilAIprediction
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Technology - Questions
• How will these technologies facilitate distance learning?
• In what areas of education will distance learning become the norm?
• Will new teaching technologies allow fewer teachers to engage with more students?
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Environmental
Image: http://bit.ly/1FvnhfF
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Environmental – Climate Change• “… things will start going haywire in the tropics at
around the year 2020, and in [places further from the equator] around 2047.”
Eric Zuesse, Huffington Post, about:Mora, C. et al. The Projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. 2013
Environmental – Climate Change• Higher Ed Climate Adaptation Committee findings:
“1. Have a critical role to play in preparing society to adapt to the impacts of climate disruption by providing research and education around adaption strategies and science.”
“7. Should aim to identify adaptation strategies that also contribute to mitigation efforts.”
http://bit.ly/ClimateCommitment
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Environmental – Questions• Could restrictions on energy usage discourage
displacement and encourage online learning?
• Will the economic impacts of climate change reduce enrollment capacity for traditional institutions?
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Economy
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Image: http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/06/news/economy/economy-improving/
Economy – The Future of Work• Disruptions that could radically change the future of work
Störmer, et al. The future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030.
http://bit.ly/FutureOfWork2030
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Economy - Technological Job Displacement• “Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)
applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”– Nearly 2,000 experts surveyed:
48%
YES52%
NOhttp://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Economy - Technological Job Displacement• “Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)
applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”– Team NO major arguments:
• Tech displaces some work while creating more• We invent new types of work
http://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Economy - Technological Job Displacement• “Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)
applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”– Team NO major arguments:
• Tech displaces some work while creating more• We invent new types of work
– Team YES major arguments:• Blue-collar work first, then white-collar• Might create new jobs, but promote inequality
http://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Economy - Technological Job Displacement• “Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)
applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”– Both teams agree:
• Our education system is not preparing workers!
http://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Economy - Technological Job Displacement• “We may lose as much as 25% of all
‘simple’ jobs because of smart machines, AI, robotics and automation, e.g., data input clerks, analysts (some), check-out clerks, cab drivers, etc. In the next 25 years, that loss may be as much as 50% of all jobs as ‘machines’ get even better.”
Gerd Leonhard (@gleonhard)in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Economy – Zero Hour Contracts• Flexible contracts with few guarantees for the employee
• Huge benefits for employer, fewer for employee
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Economy - Questions• How will job loss due to automation compete with job
creation?
• Will zero-hour contracts receive government regulations to prevent employee abuses?
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Politics
Image: http://thepolitic.org/understanding-politics/
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Politics – Funding Sources• Worldwide trends influencing how we finance higher ed:
Increasing demand
Increasingly knowledge-based economies
Increasing Globalization
Increasing liberalization of economies(Increasing privatization of public education)
http://bit.ly/UNESCOtrends
Politics – Funding Sources• Worldwide trends influencing how we finance higher ed:
Increasing demand Decreasing revenue, increasing costs
Increasingly knowledge-based economies
Increasing Globalization
Increasing cost per student(rising faster than inflation)
Government-tax revenues can’t keep up with cost
Increasing reliance on non-tax revenues
Increasing importance of financial assistance
Increasing liberalization of economies(Increasing privatization of public education)
http://bit.ly/UNESCOtrends
Politics – Institutional Specialization
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Politics – Incentivize Student Outcomes• Should university funding be linked to lifetime career
outcome for graduates?– “The America’s College Promise (ACP) proposal in the
President’s budget would encourage community colleges to strengthen their programs and increase the number of students who graduate by adopting promising and evidence-based institutional reforms and innovative practices to improve student outcomes.”
http://bit.ly/HigherEdSuccess
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Politics - Questions• How will governments choose to fund education in the
future?
• What legislative decisions will governments make that affect higher education governance?
• Will politicians move to protect flexible working situations and prevent abuses of zero-hour contracts?
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Models for future higher education
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Image: http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnebersole/2014/01/13/top-issues-facing-higher-education-in-2014/
Models for future higher education• Different ways to get a bachelor’s
– Three-year and accelerated bachelors– Multiple education providers
Mintz, S. The Future of Higher Education. InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Models for future higher education• The bare-bones University
– Lower-cost, online education with focus on teaching– Limited enrollment related to local workforce needs
Mintz, S. The Future of Higher Education. InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Models for future higher education• Experimental models
– Online-only– Flipped classrooms– Intership-focused– Minimalist or virtual campuses
– Entrepreneurial universities
Mintz, S. The Future of Higher Education. InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
Etzkowitz, et al. The future of the university an the university of the future: evolution of ivory tower to entrepreneurial paradigm. Research Policy. 2000
http://bit.ly/EntrepreneurialUnis
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Models for future higher education• Corporate Universities
– Deloitte, Disney, Motorola, etc. universities– Displace traditional education with job focus– Longer term investment in specialized employees
Mintz, S. The Future of Higher Education. InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Models for future higher education
Brint. Creating the Future: ‘New Directions’ in American Research Universities. Minerva. 2005
http://bit.ly/CreatingTheFuture
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Two scenarios for the future
Image by Studio Pei-Zhu and Slab Architechture
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Future scenarios – the constants• Climate change increases price of displacement
– Delocalized, stay in your network to study
• Vocational focus continues due to uncertain job markets– Modular education offers adaptability (employablility)
• More diverse funding for institutions, researchers, students– Student sponsors, KickStarter research, brand giving
games
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Undergrad education supply ↑• Undergrad education supply increases, dropping price
– Necessity for undergraduate degree increases for most jobs– Universal undergrad experience for discovery and growth– Local organizations offer simulated ‘campus experience’
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Undergrad education supply ↑• Undergrad education supply increases, dropping price
– Necessity for undergraduate degree increases for most jobs– Universal undergrad experience for discovery and growth– Local organizations offer simulated ‘campus experience’
• Massification continues, leading to mega institutions for post-grad research and entrepreneurship– Teaching & research more closely linked for postgrads– Extreme competition for fewer subsidized positions– More opportunities for top performers to access education
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Undergrad education supply ↓• Undergrad education supply decreases, increasing price
– Vocational schooling or certification rises in popularity– Higher education restricted to young, top performers or rich– Local organizations offer simulated ‘campus experience’
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Undergrad education supply ↓• Undergrad education supply decreases, increasing price
– Vocational schooling or certification rises in popularity– Higher education restricted to young, top performers or rich– Local organizations offer simulated ‘campus experience’
• Massification trend stops, leading to expensive mega institutions for undergrad and postgrad education– Teaching and research linked for all students in system– Emphasis on student recruiting and retention due to cost– Rising inequity in access to education due to cost
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Which future will you shape?
Image by Greg Githens:http://bit.ly/PxFourFuturism
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsaryAdrianEbsary.com
Contact• About.me/AJEbsary• AdrianEbsary.com
• Twitter: @AJEbsary• Facebook.com/AJEbsary• Linkedin.com/in/AJEbsary