Upload
jillmitchell8778
View
798
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Basic Probability
Citation preview
What is probability? Probability is a numerical value used to
express the chance that a specific event will occur.
Probability is always in the interval 0 to 1 and can be expressed as percentages.
The greater the chance that an event will occur, the closer the probability is to 1.
The smaller the chance that an event will occur, the closer the probability is to 0.
Probabilities is needed to make generalisations about the population based on a sample drawn from the population. 2
Experiment Process that results in obtaining observations
from an experimental unit. Experimental unit is the object on which the
observations are made. Results of experiment are called outcomes. Stochastic experiment
The results are a definite set of two or more possible outcomes.
The outcome can not be determined in advance. Can be repeated under stable conditions.
3
Sample space Collection of all possible outcomes of an
experiment. It is denoted by S. List all possible outcomes inside braces.
S = { }
S
4
Event Collection of some outcomes of the sample
space. It is denoted by A, B, C, etc. List all possible outcomes inside braces.
A = { } Can have one or more
outcomes. S
A
5
Event Can define more than one event for the same
sample space. Two events are mutually exclusive if they can
not occur at the same time. Events A and B are mutually exclusive.
S
AB
6
7
Event Can define more than one event for the same
sample space. Two events are non mutually exclusive if they
can occur at the same time. Events A and C are non mutually exclusive.
Probability of an event Probability of Event A. P(A)
S
A
C7
Properties of probability: 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 P(B) = 0
B impossible event P(C) = 1
C certain event P(S) = 1 Compliment of Event A:
P(Ā) = 1 – P(A) Events A and B mutually exclusive.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)8
Three approaches to probability 1. Relative frequency approach
The probabilities of the outcomes differ. Counting the number of times that an event
occurs when performing an experiment a large number of times.
number of times event A occurredP(event A)
number of times the experiment was repeated
( )f
P An
9
Three approaches to probability Relative frequency approach
Example In a group of 20 tourists staying in a hotel,
nine prefer to pay cash for their accommodation.
The probability that a tourist will pay cash for accommodation is:
9( ) 0,45
20
fP A
n
10
Three approaches to probability 2. Classic approach
The outcomes all have the same probabilities. Not necessary to performing an experiment a
large number of times.
number of outcomes of experiment favourable to the eventP(eventA)
total number of outcomes of experiment
( )f
P An
11
Three approaches to probability Classic approach
Example Chance to get an uneven number on a dice:
S = {1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6} F = {1; 3; 5}
1 1 1 3( ) 0,5
6 6 6 6P F
12
Three approaches to probability 3. Subjective approach
The probabilities assigned to the outcomes of the experiment is subjective to the person who performs the experiment.
13
The word “or” in probability is an indication of addition
P(A or B)
The word “and” in probability is an indication of multiplication P(A and B)
14
15
Addition rules for calculating probabilities Events are mutually exclusive when they
have no outcomes in common. For mutually exclusive events:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = 4/21 + 3/21 = 7/21
SA B
Events A and B are mutually
exclusive 15
Addition rules for calculating probabilities Events are mutually exclusive when they
have no outcomes in common If events are not mutually exclusive
P(C or D) = P(C) + P(D) – P(C and D) P(C and D) Outcomes are included in C and D.
Events C and D are not mutually
exclusive S
= 5/21 + 5/21 – 2/21 = 8/21
16
Conditional probability Need to know the probability of an event
given another event has already occurred The two events must be dependent. Probability of A, given B has occurred:
P(A|B) = , P(B) ≠ 0
Multiplication rule: P(A and B) = P (B)P(A|B)
Probability of B, given A has occurred: P(B|A) = , P(A) ≠ 0
( )
( )
P A and B
P B
( )
( )
P A and B
P A
The outcome of one event affects the probability of the occurrence of another event.
17
18
Conditional probability Need to know the probability of an event
given another event has already occurred. If sampling without replacement takes place.
The events are considered dependent. Example – Three students need to pick a
biscuit from a plate with 10 biscuits. 1st student can pick any of the 10 biscuits. 2nd student has only 9 biscuits to pick from. 3rd student has only 8 biscuits to pick from. The probability to pick the 1st biscuit is 1/10, the 2nd
is 1/9 and the 3rd is 1/8. 18
19
Independent Events Events are statistically independent if the
outcome of one event does not affect the probability of occurrence of another event. P(A|B) = P(A) P(B|A) = P(B)
Multiplication rule for dependent events: P(A and B) = P(B)P(A|B)
Multiplication rule for independent events: P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
19
Counting rules Multi-step experiments
The number of outcomes for ‘k’ trails each with the same ‘n’ possible outcomes. The number of outcomes in S = nk.
Example How many ways can 10 multiple choice question
with 4 possible answers be answered: 410 = 1 048 576 ways
20
21
Counting rules Multi-step experiments
The number of outcomes for ‘j’ trails each with a different number of ‘n’ outcomes. The number of outcomes in S = n1 x n2 … X nj
Example Need to order a meal where you can pick ‘1’
burger from ‘8’, ’1’ cool drink from ’10’, ‘1’ ice cream from ‘5’. Number of possible orders: 8×10×5 = 400
21
Counting rules The factorial
The number of ways in which ‘r’ objects can be arranged in a row, without replacement. r! = r×(r – 1)×(r – 2)× …×3×2×1
Note r! = 0! = 1 Example
Six athletes compete in a race. The number of order arrangements for completing the race. 6! = 720 different ways
22
Counting rules Combination
Select r objects without replacement from a larger set of n objects, order of selection not important.
Example Six lotto numbers should be selected form a
possible 49 – order of selection not important.
!
!( )!n r
nC
r n r
49 6
49!13 983 816
6!(49 6)!n rC C
23
Counting rules Permutation
Select r objects without replacement from a larger set of n objects, order of selection is important.
Example Six athletes in a race, how many ways to
compete for the gold, silver and bronze medals.
!
( )!n r
nP
n r
6 3
6!120
(6 3)!n rP P
24
Additional examples
25
Sample space:
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
52 Cards in the pack
Experiment: Draw a card from a play pack of cards
Experimental unit: Play pack of cards
Outcome of experiment: Any card from the pack
26
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
Event A – get a ‘4’ if you pick one card from the pack of cards
A = {♠4 ♣4 ♥4 ♦4}
P(A) = 4/52
A
Event - some outcomes of the sample space
27
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
Event B – get a picture card if you pick one card from the pack of cards
B = {♠JQKA ♣ JQKA ♥ JQKA ♦ JQKA}
P(B) = 16/52
B
Event - some outcomes of the sample space
28
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
Event B – get a picture card if you pick one card from the pack of cards
What is the probability not to get a picture card?
P( ) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – 16/52 = 36/52B
B
Complement of an event
29
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = 4/52 + 16/52 = 20/52
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
Are events A and B mutually exclusive?
BA
Additional rule
30
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
Event C – get a red card if you pick one card from the pack of cards
C = { ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
P(C) = 26/52
C
31
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
Are events B and C mutually exclusive?
B
C
Additional rule
32
P(B or C) = P(B) + P(C) – P(B and C)
= 16/52 + 26/52 – 8/52 = 34/52
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
B
C
Are events B and C mutually exclusive?
Additional rule
33
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
What is the probability to get a red card if the card must be a picture card?
8( ) 852( | )16( ) 16
52
P C and BP C B
P B
B
C
Conditional rule
34
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
What is the probability to get a ‘4’ if the card must be a red card?
2( ) 252( | )26( ) 26
52
P A and CP A C
P C
A
C
Conditional ruleConditional rule
35
226 2( ) ( ) ( | ) 52 26 52P A and C P C P A C
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
We know: P(C) = 26/52 and P(A|C) = 2/26
Sampling with replacement takes place
If we pick two cards, what is the probability that the first one is red and the second one is ‘4’
A
C
Conditional rule
36
S={ ♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A ♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A }
P(B) = 16/52 and P(A|B) = 4/51 6416 4( ) ( ) ( | ) 52 51 2652
P B and A P B P A B
Sampling without replacement takes place If we pick two cards, what is the probability that the first one is a picture card and the second one is ‘4’
A B
Conditional rule
37
A soccer team is playing two matches on a specific day.•The chance of winning the first match is:
•P(1st) = ½•The chance of winning the second match is:
•P(2nd) = ½•Will the outcome of the first match influence the outcome of the second match?•The chance of winning both matches is:
•P(1st and 2nd) = P(1st) x P(2nd |1st) •P(1st and 2nd) = P(1st) x P(2nd) = ½ X ½ = ¼
Independent events
38
39
In chapter 2 we looked at an example to organise qualitative data into a frequency distribution table.
39
40
Example:The data below shows the gender of 50 employees and the department in which they work at ABC Ltd.
Organising and graphing qualitative data in a frequency distribution table.
Emp. no. Gender Dept. Emp. no. Gender Dept …..
1 M HR 6 M Fin. …..
2 F Mark. 7 M Mark. …..
3 M Fin. 8 M Fin. …..
4 F HR 9 F HR …..
5 F Fin. 10 F Fin. …..
M – Male F – Female
HR – Human resourcesMark. – MarketingFin. – Finance
40
41
HR Marketing Finance Total
M 4 10 5 19
F 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50
Organising and graphing qualitative data in a frequency distribution table.
41
42
HR Marketing Finance Total
M 4 10 5 19
F 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50
If one employee is chosen from the 50 employees, what is the probability that the employee will be male?
P(M) = 19/50
42
43
HR Marketing Finance Total
M 4 10 5 19
F 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50
If one employee is chosen from the 50 employees, what is the probability that the employee will be from the Marketing department?
P(Mark) = 26/50
43
44
HR Marketing Finance Total
M 4 10 5 19
F 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50
If one employee is chosen from the 50 employees, what is the probability that the employee will be from the Marketing or Finance departments?
P(Mark or Fin) = 26/50 + 10/50 = 36/50
44
Are the marketing and finance departments
mutually exclusive?
45
HR Marketing Finance Total
M 4 10 5 19
F 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50
If one employee is chosen from the 50 employees, what is the probability that the employee will be Female and from the Finance department?
P(F and Fin) = 5/50 Are female and the finance department mutually exclusive?
46
HR Marketing Finance Total
M 4 10 5 19
F 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50
If one employee is chosen from the 50 employees, what is the probability that the employee will be Female or from the Finance department?
P(F or Fin) = 31/50 + 10/50 – 5/50 = 36/50Are female and the finance department mutually exclusive?
47
HR Marketing Finance Total
M 4 10 5 19
F 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50
If one employee is chosen from the 50 employees, what is the probability that the employee will be from the Marketing and Finance departments?
P(F and Fin) = 0
47
Are the marketing and finance departments
mutually exclusive?
P( ) = 1 - P(HR) = 1 - 14/50 = 36/50
HR Marketing Finance Total
M 4 10 5 19
F 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50
If one employee is chosen from the 50 employees, what is the probability that the employee will not be from the HR department?
HR
48
P(F|HR) = P(F and HR)/P(HR)
= 10/50 / 14/50 = 10/14
HR Marketing Finance Total
M 4 10 5 19
F 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50
If one employee is chosen from the 50 employees, what is the probability that the employee will female if she is from the HR department?
49