Space Evaders

Project Steer Clear

Increased use of space is leading to much higher probability of collisions and a rapidly expanding volume of debris. This propagation of collisions has the potential to become a Kessler cascade that would render the major orbital

regions unusable in the future. Our team is using data methods to find ways to prevent debris-causing collisions.

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SponsorAmber Charlesworth

MentorPablo Quintanilla

MentorBart Burstein

Kate Boudreau Dave Gabler Tyler Dammann Matthew Kaseman

12in total

this week

Interviews

Where we are

Main idea from last week:crowd source size/shape data

(looking shaky)vs.

New idea from last night:Debris footprint index

(feeling optimistic)

Debris footprint index- Modeled on carbon footprint- Raise awareness of debris

causes- Give regulators/treaty

negotiators a starting point

Similarities to environmental pollution- All users claim they are responsible- Nobody actually knows who creates the most debris- Bad actors are not currently known or punished- Good actors are not currently known or rewarded

Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results

Orbital/ Debris academic expert

Size / shape data will improve the CA warning system

“How much can this MVP improve current modelling?”

“Orders of magnitude”

Need to refine, but on the right path

Amateur Astronomers

We can crowdsource size/shape data acquisition

Ask for photos of small objects in LEO

Equipment requirements are not met(telescopes/motors)

Institution Astronomers

We can crowdsource size/shape data acquisition

Ask for photos of small objects in LEO

Researchers now focus on light glint (Many of them)

Series photos needed for tumbling

Customer Discovery

Bottom Line: This info will help, but crowdsourcing will require new infrastructure for amateurs

Key ActivitiesCrowdsourced data viability:- Determine telescope specification requirements- Determine price per unit- Determine number of units required- Which beneficiary will finance it?- Identify worldwide stewards who would receive and use the telescopes

Alternate sources of data:- Government telescopes can help?- Feasibility of space-based system- Cost/beneficiary willingness to pay?

Debris targeting:- Determine how to provide “orders” that include location/time information

Usable output:- Determine how to process optical results into usable data for propagation models

Key ActivitiesData quality:- High accuracy- Rapid response to add new debris- Quality control for data inputs- Collaborate with satellite ope

Integration- Hands-on approach with propagation modelers

Debris targeting:- Determine how to provide “orders” that include location/time information

Usable output:- Determine how to process optical results into usable data for propagation models

Critical ResourcesHuman Financial Physical Intellectual

- Astronomers incentivized to spend time imaging debris - Propagation modelers include our data and test effectiveness(AFRL, Universities, etc)

- Telescope acquisition and maintenance

- Database creation and maintenance

- Compensation for contributors?

- JSpOC catalog

- Capable telescopes / motors

- Servers for information

- Academic models

- Accountability mechanism for operators who don’t share information

- Incentive for astronomers and operators to contribute

Key Partners Partner They provide? We provide?

JSpOC / JFCC Access to current data about objects in orbit, modeling ability

Improved data

Satellite Operators Size/shape data of current and future satellites

Improved conjunction warnings

Amateur telescope operators

Images of debris objects in orbit

Accomplish social good;Potential financial compensation

FAA / FCC / NOAA Size/shape data sharing requirements for satellite operators

Improved safety in space;more control of debris outcomes

Academics / AFRL Inclusion in propagation models;Hypothesis testing

Rich new data set

Deployment

AFRL validation

Acquire satellite data

Acquire debris data

Integrate with JSpOC

Provide data to academics

Improve models

Insight: Improved atmospheric models will improve the ability to gain size and shape information

Correspond with JSpOC

Talk with astronomers

Collaborate w/ government to create sharing requirements

Locate existing strategic telescope / motor combinations

ty;

Mission Model CanvasBeneficiaries

Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs

Buy-In/Support

Deployment

Value PropositionKey Activities

Key Resources

Key Partners

█ JSpOC / JFCC

- Amateur telescope operators - FAA to provide data from applications

- FCC to provide on-orbit enforcement

Observation:-Prioritization-Location

Data:-Receive data-Develop size/shape information-Distribute information in usable format

- Capable telescopes/motors

- JSpOC catalog

███ Improved sharing of data (both directions).

██ Low cost methods to prevent losses to very expensive, hard to replace items in space

██ Increase ability to predict accurate collisions and assess orbital risk

██ Reduce “Boy who Cried Wolf” effect

█ Commercial willing to supply data and follow best practices.

█ JFCC Space willing to update propagation model

- Locate telescope /motor combos at strategic locations

- Incentivize contributions

- Collaborate w/ FAA /FCC to put size / shape sharing rqmts in place

►MJ: Needs accurate baseline data to build basic scientific data accuracy

►DM: Needs to reduce nuisance messages and become an indispensable source of factual data

►VV//DL: Need to eliminate the uncertainty of conjunction warnings

- Telescope and motor acquisition / shipping to sites

- Incentives to observers

- Database management

- Improve confidence in SSA info to the point that maneuver decisions are data based, not politics based.- Frequency of JSpOC CAs decreases as models are improved- Taxonomy of objects in orbit created

MVP: Last Week

Products&

Services

Customer Jobs

John,satellite operator for a

commercial space-based company.

Gains

Pains

Gain Creators

Pain Relievers

►Many Conjunction Alerts

►Coordination with other operators

█ Minimize risk, fuel cost, and time investment related to conjunction risks

█ Improved understanding of Conjunction Alerts

█ Reduce time to make contact with other operators

- Easy to access information- Size and shape data about other satellites

►Complete profitable satellite operations.

- Accomplish mission

-Avoid collisions

Customer Archetype (Satellite Operator)● 44-year-old space industry veteran with 15+

years in the industry● Hired to monitor/adjust satellite position to

ensure customer needs can be met.● Very passionate about his job● Enjoys problem-solving, dislikes wasted time● Wants to be a good citizen of space

Space Evaders: Value Proposition Canvas

Space Evaders

Questions?

MVP: Composite Debris FootprintAbstract: formula to assess the composite cost that

operators’ debris causes.Required elements:

-Danger of current debris orbit based on current/future use of nearby orbits-Predictability and trackability of debris-Tendency of debris to further break up-Debris mass and damage potential-Time debris will remain on orbit Output:-Comparable number to represent total debris by operator or object

Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results

Private SSA consultant

JSpOC could improve their catalog with size/shape data

Show MVP, discuss usefulness of data

Data could be useful. It is not currently used by JSpOC due to legacy equipment considerations that may no longer apply.

Orbital/ Debris academic expert

There are a large number of people whose CA models would be improved by size / shape data.

Present MVP, “how much could this improve current modelling?”

Data could improve modeling by “orders of magnitude”, but additional shape classification and atmospheric information would be required to take full advantage

Private GEO Satellite Operator

Accurate size/ shape data could promote best practices among satellite operators.

Show the MVP discuss possibilities of improved modelling and current/ future decision making.

Data would likely not change decision making process “Do Not Move” as standard policy.

Customer Discovery

Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results

Amateur Astronomers

Size / shape information can be found using ground-based technology available to the public.

Discuss requirements and capabilities to get the information in the MVP

This level of resolution is generally out of reach for amatuer astronomers, due to equipment and tracking limitations.

Institution Astronomers

Size / shape information can be found using ground-based technology available to research institutions.

Discuss requirements and capabilities to get the information in the MVP

Light glint is seen as a more useful source of information than imagery, serious collection would be a major undertaking that requires a series of images and is beyond this institution's capabilities.

Customer Discovery

Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results

FAA Official The government collects size and shape data during the process, and would be willing to share it.

Ask the official about registration data and whether the FAA is allowed to share the information.

Size / shape data is required for registration, but is proprietary. No sharing possible.

Non-US private space operator / early adopter

Satellite operators would be willing to share the size / shape data of their satellites.

“Who would you be willing to share physical details of your satellites with, and what would it take?”

Would be willing to share, but only to a responsible party. Would prefer a UN instead of US organization.

Customer Discovery