Small World: How CU Denver Global Energy Manager Studies Connect Us to International Policy We can Use at Home

GEM Speakers SeriesUniversity of Colorado Denver School of Business

Thursday, February 21, 2013Leslie Martel Baer MS, MA

1

Agenda

How are you connected to GEM?

What do you want to learn today?

Timeline

Connections between different projects

Bringing it home

Q&A

2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 2

Timeline

HR Course/Work on solar thermal (ST) workforce issues

London Course/Interest in international renewables (RE) policy

Present ST HR issues at World Renewable Energy Forum

Present RE policy investigation at Renewable Energy World Europe

Begin work on new Renewable Thermal Standard (RTS) in CO


Why RE Thermal?

China78%European Union

12%

Turkey2%

Brazil1%

India1%

Israel1%

Australia1%

United States1%

Japan1% Other

2%

% of Added Capacity


2008 total solar hot water/heating capacity addedby the top 10 countries: 28 GWth. Source: REN21

Colorado’s Energy Wheel: Today

Electrical Power29%

Transportation28%

Heating43%

Energy Consumption (by BTUs, 2010)


Colorado’s Energy Wheel: Target

Renewable Electric

5%

Electrical Power24%

Transportation28%

Heating43%

Energy Consumption (by BTUs, 2010)

After multipliers,Lower targets for REAs/munis:

RE Electric Target ~16.5%RE Total Target ~5.5%


More Than Gas: Energy Sources for Heat

Natural Gas68%

Electricity16%

Propane/LPG16%

Water Heating

Natural Gas74%

Electricity11%

Propane/LPG11%

Other4%

Space Heating


Fuels used in Colorado to heat water and building space in 2009. Source: EIA

A Policy Gap

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ElectricityThermal(Heat)

Energy Production

Energy Conservation

1% DSMSurcharge

2% RESSurcharge

1% DSMSurcharge

1¢/thermRTS

Colorado’s ST Opportunity

U.S. Solar water heating performance in kWh/year (energy saved using aglycol solar system with a selective surface collector; pg 1).Source: Danny Parker, Florida Solar Energy Center

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U.S. Solar Thermal:A Growth Industry

U.S. shipments of ST collectors increased by 97.6% (1999–2008)

Companies shipping collectors grew by 100% (2006–2009)

U.S. ST collector manufacturing jobs increased by 365% (2000–2009)

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It’s a Talent War

Renewables are competing with each other

Competing with fossil fuel industries

Outgrowing “start up” style

Need practices to feed:

Leadership

Business development

Operations


Success, Challenges in R&D

NREL, Collaboratory, Universities, Industry

Need to provide, attract talent

Work visa issues

“Intermediate” engineering projects

Dearth of technicians

Image courtesy Alcoa, NREL


Best Way to Fund Workforce Development?


Total Installed Wind Generation Capacity, 1992–2010

Stability Matters: U.S. driven by temporary stability, multiple incentives, urgency

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

1992 1997 2002 2007

UK

U.S.

Colorado


Wind Generation Capacity as a Percentage of Total Capacity1992–2010

Colorado’s RES Similar to UK’s RO: Paid for by rate payers

U.S. states are driving RE action

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1992 1997 2002 2007

UK

U.S.

Colorado


Colorado GEO:Wind as a Least Cost Resource Utility-scale RE

Water issues

Large geographic region; weather systems factor differently

Large grid; balancing factors differently

Mid-continent NG (?)


NREL: Making Room for Coal

The “right” carbon cap and RPS

Reduce emissions w/ more coal in portfolio (not CCS)

Cheap domestic fuel

Modest impact to prices

Unlikely, but feasible

Technical Report

NREL/TP6A248258

May 2010

Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector Lori Bird, Caroline Chapman, Jeff Logan, Jenny Sumner, and Walter Short


Reinventing Fire:An Optimal Energy Scenario to 2050One of Rocky Mountain Institute’s scenarios shows the “best case” dovetails with REF’s recommendations:

• Incentivize efficiency and DSM first, fairly

• Renewables make it to parity

• Transparency for and by producers, suppliers, consumers is essential

• Players operate under values, goals that fit their functions (e.g., suppliers supply)


A Policy Gap


ElectricityThermal(Heat)

Energy Production

Energy Conservation

1% DSMSurcharge

2% RESSurcharge

1% DSMSurcharge

1¢/thermRTS

By 2025, the RTS will…

Generate 10,000 jobs

Save energy consumers$100 million

Create $360 million in business forCO companies

Save CO citizens $242 million in health,environmental costs

Offset 9.3 million MMBTU (2.7 million MWh) of natural gas

Eliminate 1.2 billion lbs of CO2 emissions

Every Year!


Geothermal: System Advantages


Lighting & Apps.

27%

Hot Water13%

Heating and AC

60%

Conventional Energy Use

Lighting & Apps.

27%

Hot Water

6%Heating

& AC18%

Geo. Energy

49%

Geothermal Energy Use

A Path to Net Zero

Energy Efficiency (passive solar, tight envelop, etc.)

Solar thermal domestichot water (can coupleto the geothermal heatexchanger for extremeheating loads)

Geothermal heatingand cooling

Solar photo voltaicelectricity

Integrated control systems


Leslie Martel Baer MS, [email protected]


Education

Small World: How CU Denver Global Energy Manager Studies Connect Us to International Policy We can Use at Home