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SITE 2014 Presentation. Abstract: Blended learning in K-12 classrooms is growing at an enormous rate. While the Educational Success Prediction Instrument (ESPRI) has been used to predict the success of students in online courses, it has yet to be applied to blended courses. This study examined the use of the ESPRI to predict the success of students enrolled in a secondary advanced biology course where the first half of the course was offered in a traditional format and the second half was offered in a blended format. Differences in student performance between the two portions of the course were not statistically significant (p = .35). The ESPRI correctly predicted approximately 88% of the outcomes. Limitations of the study included a small sample size (N = 43) relative to the number of items in the instrument. Additional research should examine the effectiveness of the instrument on students from across the achievement spectrum and not what is considered the ideal online learner.
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Applying the ESPRI to K-12 Blended LearningJason SikoAssistant Professor of Educational TechnologyGrand Valley State University
The problem
Attrition in online courses
Difficult to tell extent, because organizations often do not report the same information
Some leave out attrition w/in first few weeks
Some eliminate failures or “outliers”
Why do students not complete online courses?
The perfect online learner
Barbour & Reeves, 2009MotivatedIndependentSupportive familyAccess to technology and workspace
…does this describe all online learners?
Possible factors influencing success
Kim, Park, Cozart (2013)Self-efficacy
Reason for taking course (acceleration, credit recovery)
Achievement beliefs
Vicious cycle when isolation, difficulty, and level of perseverance lead to frustration.
What about blended?
Staker (2011): “…any time a student learns at least in part at a supervised brick- and-mortar location away from home and at least in part through online delivery with some element of student control over time, place, path, and/or pace” (p.11)
Fastest growing segment of online learning (Watson et al., 2011)
Research on K-12 blended learning is lagging behind its exponential growth in several areas (Barbour, Siko, Gross, & Waddell, 2013)
Educational Success Prediction Instrument (ESPRI)
Validated instrument shown to accurately predict success (~pass vs. fail) in an online course
Accurately predicted success in ~90% of cases (Roblyer & Marshall, 2003; Roblyer, Davis, Mills, Marshall, and Pape, 2008) in online courses
Asks questions in 4 areas Self-efficacy/Technology Use
Achievement Beliefs
Risk-taking beliefs (in classroom)
Organization beliefs
http://tinyurl.com/sikoespri
Research Questions
1. Is there any difference in student performance between the traditional and blended portions of the course?
2. How well does the ESPRI survey accurately predict the performance of students in a blended course?
Setting
AY2011-2012
Large, suburban, Midwestern high school (~1800 students in grades 10-12)
Culturally homogenous; however, diverse with respect to SES
Course: International Baccalaureate Biology – Higher Level (IB Bio-HL)
43 students, grade 11
1st half of course – Face-to-face
2nd half of course - blended
Methods
RQ1: Compare grades for F2F and blended semesters
Paired t-test
RQ2: Administer ESPRI at beginning of blended semester
Use end-of-semester grades, pass/fail (70% cutoff)
Multiple discriminant analysis
Wilks’ lambda and Press’s Q to test for validity of results
RQ1
Not significantly different, t(42) = 0.95; p = .35.
Different content covered; may not be equal in difficulty
RQ2
Overall, predicted 38/43 cases (~88%)
Concerns:Low sample size (20:1 ratio of cases:factors)
Wilks’ lambda was not statistically significantHowever, Press’s Q statistic was statistically significant
Further directions
Larger studies using ESPRI in blended learning situations
Develop methods of providing targeted support to students who score low in certain areas of ESPRI
Authors of previous studies involving ESPRI recommend NOT using instrument as a selection tool for online courses; rather, use it to provide supports
Need for systematic study of student performance where students have low scores on ESPRI and were provided support
Questions?
Thanks for coming!
Jason SikoAssistant Professor of Educational TechnologyGrand Valley State UniversityGrand Rapids, MI
[email protected] / [email protected]
http://jasonsiko.com
@jasonsiko