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Public Opinion

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Source:•Michael G. Roskin, Robert L. Cord, James A. Medeiros, & Walter S. Jones. (2012). Political Science: An Introduction. New York: Pearson Longman.

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Public Opinion

Citizens’ reaction to current leaders’ actions, issues, and events

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Public Opinion & Social Class

Lower Class

Middle Class

Upper Class

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Measuring Public Opinion

Subjective:

ask people

Objective:

data on income & quality of

neighborhood

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Public Opinion: What Matters

Class Region Religion Age Gender Ethnicity

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Public Opinion

Class

Region

Religion

Age

Gender

Ethnicity

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Public Opinion

Class

Region

Religion

Age

Gender

Ethnicity

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Classic Opinion Curves•J-Curve or Stable Curve: Opinion curve is skewed to one side, if there are few doubters on an issue

Copyright @ 2012, 2010, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Classic Opinion Curves•Bell-Curve or Uni-Modal Distribution: Opinion curve is mostly in the moderate center, with very few at the extreme left & right

Copyright @ 2012, 2010, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Classic Opinion Curves•U-Curve (Extreme Division): Bi-modal distribution for polarizing issues; more extremes than moderates

Copyright @ 2012, 2010, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Shape of Public Opinion

Some regions are more

conservative

Peripheries resent the

capital: center-

periphery tensions

Regional politics matter;

region can undermine

political party

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Public Opinion Polls

No well-defined patterns in opinion

distribution, as most folks don’t pay

attention to politics most of the time

On most matters, only a small

minority pays attention to news to have a well-defined

opinion

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Public Opinion Polls

Select random sample for accuracy

Reach the sample; replies

not representative as

responders are self-selected;

problems with phone surveys

too

Ask the unbiased questions to

avoid slanting responses

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Are Polls Reliable?

Public opinion is unstable,

changes quickly with changing

events

In general, public opinion

surveys are reliable but

there are limits

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U.S. Presidents’

Rating

1

Honeymoon

2

Rally Events

3

Later in the term

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U.S. Presidents’ Rating

Honeymoon: Usually begin

with high ratings in early

term & then decline as

problems pile up

Rally Events: With crisis,

presidents have spikes in public support (rally

events) but only short term

Later in their terms,

Presidents willfully appear

dramatically decisive to

improve sagging popularity

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U.S. Public Opinion

Most Americans are conservatives (not liberal), but many

call themselves moderates

Most industrial countries are

unimodal like the U.S., making

democracy possible

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U.S. Public Opinion

Selective Perception:

People selectively pay

attention to matters that affect them

directly

Satisfaction: Some with be

satisfied, while others

dissatisfied

Political Competence: The fewer but

attentive public has ore impact,

as they voice out their ideas

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Gabriel Almond’s 3 Publics

General Public: Most people focus on their immediate

concerns (not foreign policy, except war or

international crisis)

Attentive Public: Better educated; follow abstract

concerns, such as foreign policy; elites

pay attention to them, as they might

need to mobilize the general public

Policy & Opinion Elite: Very

influential people making policy, such as representatives,

senators, & appointed officials who make policies

to other publics

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Is Polling Fair?Polls monitor & make

opinions

When media shows which candidate leads by a wide margin,

the underdog’s campaign loses contributions & supporters

Exit polls interview voters; can skew election results

Some media outlets practice self-discipline by not reporting on poll

results, until all polls in the country have closed

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Reference:•Michael G. Roskin, Robert L. Cord, James A. Medeiros, & Walter S. Jones. (2012). Political Science: An Introduction. New York: Pearson Longman.

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