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What does a resilience systems analysis do?
• Translates political will and theory into better programming on the ground
• Based on a whole-of-system approach (trends, not events….)
How?
• Pooling existing knowledge, information, datasets
• Bringing together 3 x experts:–Experts in risks–Experts in systems–Decision makers
The scope
• The resilience of what system, for who, to what risks, over what timeframe?
An example:• The resilience of the well-being of
urban communities in Egypt to geo-political, natural, climate and economic shocks, over the next three years
The risks…
• Geo-political (social unrest, ethnic tensions etc…)
• Economic (price shocks, inflation, etc…)• Natural/climate (earthquakes, water
salination, etc)
• Idiosyncratic (eg sickness, unemployment, etc) and covariate (eg drought, Ebola)
• Over the next three years
The system
Physical capital
Social capital
Political capital
Natural capital
Human capital
Financial
capital
Eg essential household items
Eg formal/ informal conflict management mechanisms
Eg access to those in powerEg land for
agriculture
Eg health
Eg savings
Prioritisation the roadmap
• Time-frames: Short/medium/long term• Power dynamics• Different layers of society
• Eg Drought…. Where is it best to work?– with families to absorb shocks– with communities to adapt livelihoods– with local authorities to adapt market access– with states to transform economic policy– Or a mix of these?
What does the analysis help us do?
• Prioritise planning and programming based on risk
• Understand whole-of-system resilience
• How to work at different layers of society … to achieve the same goal
• Who to work with, based on power dynamics
• Buy-in from key decision makers