View
157
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Japan‐Russia Relations:East Asian Power Relations
and History
December 3, 2013Kazuhiko Togo
Kyoto Sangyo University
Where to start?• March 1 2012: Putin’s Press Conference:• (a) Enlarging Economic Relations; (b) Resolving territorial problem
• Based on the principle of draw (HIKIWAKE); and when elected to start (HAJIME)
• Irkutsk (2001) ○;Koizumi (01~06)X;Abe~Beginning of Hatoyama(06~09) ○;Later Medvedev(09~11)X
• But nothing happened for one year
Belated Initiative
• Abe’s Moscow visit in April 29 2013:• (a) Sizable businessmen to accompany; New Investment structure; new area of investment; energy cooperation to what extent?
• (b) 2+2 for security cooperation• (c) “mutually acceptable solution” for peace treaty
Six months have passed………• 2+2 is moving ahead, November meeting• Economic cooperation not halted.• How about Territorial Problems?• July 18, Panov+Togo joint proposal to Nezavisimaya Gazeta
• “Habomai and Shikotan=transfer to Japan; Kunashiri and Etorofu=special district including Japan’s right for legislature”
• Road map for talks continues, but…………
Putin’s strategic thinking• “Make Russia Rich and Strong” • Surkov’s “Sovereign Democracy”; Stoluipin’s path, Uvarov’s “narodnostj”) + Medvedev’s liberalism
• Success but contradiction inside• Last presidency for 6 years or 12 years• (a) Economic success needed; ensuring the position of stable energy supplier; transforming to value‐added economy
• (b) China: No provocation; but good relations with neighboring countries preferred
• (c) Japan is a natural choice at the beginning of his presidency
Abe’s strategic thinking (1)• Threat from China= dealing with Deterrence and Dialogue ○~△
• Strengthening relations with neighboring countries, including:
• The United States△; • KoreaX; • Russia△; • ASEAN○, Australia○, India○; • With global perspective○
Abe’s strategic thinking (2)
• “Getting out from post‐war Regime”• Abenomics: renewing Japan’s success of Showa
• (a) Security: taking initiative, NSC, Komatsu• (b) Historical memory: freeze his thinking• (c) national objective: four values written in the new basic educational law: Public good, Nature, Culture and Tradition+ Capitalism under Rice Plants: Is he really implementing it?
Conclusion
• Thank you very much for listening!
• www.theasanforum.org(a) Journal, Open Forum for the long article; (b) Journal, Topics of the Month for monthly statements and the responses