Out-of-School Children: Global, regional, and country perspectives

Out-of-SchoolChildren(OOSC):Global,regional,andcountryperspectives

NicholasBurnettManagingDirectorResults forDevelopment Institute

Overview

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§ Globaltrends inout-of-school children(OOSC)populations

§ CostsofOOSC

§ RootcausesofOOSC

§ Innovativesolutionsandfinancingmechanisms

§ Policychangesandstrategies

§ Resource needs

§ Lessons learned forIndia

GlobalTrendsinOut-of-SchoolChildren(OOSC)

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GlobaltrendsinOOSCpopulations

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§ Theglobalnumberofchildrenandyoungadolescentsnotenrolledinschoolhasstagnatedfornearlyadecade.

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Unlikelytoenter9%

Likelytoenterinfuture39%

Leftschool52%

BreakdownofOOSCinEastAsia&Pacific

UIS-UNICEF2012

CharacteristicsofOOSC

InEastAsia&Pacific,morethanhalfofoutofschoolchildrenaredropoutsRETENTIONISSUE

InSouthandWestAsia,almosthalfofoutofschoolchildrenareunlikely toeverenterschool

ACCESSISSUE

Unlikelytoenter47%


Leftschool18%

BreakdownofOOSCinSouthandWestAsia

UIS-UNICEF2012

GlobalprofilesofOOSC

§ Childrenfromlow-incomefamilies

§ Childrenaffectedbyconflictand/ornaturaldisasters

§ Girls

§ Childrenwithdisabilities

§ Childrenfromruralareas

§ Workingchildren

§ Childrenfromminorityethnic,religious,orlanguagegroups

Globally,OOSCaremostlikelytobe:

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The263millionOOSCcanonlybereachedwithtargetedinterventionsthataddresstherangeofbarriersfacedbymarginalizedyouth.

CostsofOut-of-SchoolChildren(OOSC)

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CostsofOOSC

Economic HealthandSocial Political


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AMajorSourceofEconomicLossBenchmarkingtheEconomicCostsofOOSC(Thomas andBurnett2015)

Requiredadditionalspendingonprimaryeducationas%ofGDP

EconomiccostofOOSCasa%ofGDP(micromethod)

PoliticalHealthandSocialEconomic

AcasestudyofColombia

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Povertyheadcount

ratio

CrimeRates

Estimate based on Zulaga(2010)

Estimate based on Soares(2004)

11% reduction in the poverty

headcount ratio

FertilityRate

Estimatebasedon

UNMillen.Project(2005)

2.5%reductioninthefertility

rate

InfantMortalityRate

EstimatebasedonUNICEF(1999)

27%reductionintheinfantmortalityrate

25% reduction in crime rates

(thefts and assaults)

Source:ThomasandBurnett(2015)

Political&long-term costs

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§ Individualswhohavecompletedprimaryeducationare1.5timesmorelikelytovote (UNESCO2005).

§ Primaryeducationhaspositiveeffectsonpost-conflictreconstruction andpeace-building.

§ Recent researchestablishes thelinkbetweeneducation andreducedvulnerability toclimateshocks.


Photocredit:WorldBankPhotoCollection

RootCausesofOut-of-SchoolChildren(OOSC)

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Root causes of OOSC

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Particularlyforchildren inremote,rural,andhard-to-reachareas.

1

Lackoftailorededucation

opportunities Fordrop-outs,girls,ethnic andlinguisticminorities, andchildrenwithdisabilities. 2

Householdeconomicbarriers

Schoolfees,“hiddencosts”ofeducation,andopportunitycosts.3

Insufficientandinflexiblesupply

InnovativeSolutionsandFinancingMechanisms

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CenterforEducationInnovations

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InnovativesolutionstotherootcausesofOOSC

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1)Insufficientandinflexiblesupply

§ Mobileeducationdelivery

§ Technology-driveneducation

§ Alternativebasiceducation

2)Lackoftailorededucationopportunities

3)Householdeconomicbarriers

§ Non-formal,second-chanceeducationfocusedonskills

§ Acceleratedlearningprograms

§ Girls’empowermentcurricula

§ Curriculaadaptedtoruralcontexts

§ Mother-tongueeducation

§ Adaptededucation(disability)

§ Output-basedfinancing

§ Conditionalmicro-loans

§ Conditionalcashcredits

§ Childmarriageprevention

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Mobileeducation

Technology-driven

Alternative

Can’tWaittoLearn

MobileGerKindergartens

MOVINGschools

AlternativeProvisionofBasicEducation

Shidhulai SwanirvarSangstha floatingschools

MigrantWorkersLearningCenters

§ Mobileeducationdelivery

§ Technology-driveneducation

§ Alternative basiceducation

RootCause1:InsufficientandInflexibleSupply

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Non-formal

Acceleratedlearning

Disabilities

PrathamOpenSchool

DoosraDashak

KrousarThmey

FACESalamProjectforStreetChildren

Community-basedAcceleratedLearningSchools

RootCause2:Lackoftailorededucationopportunities

§ Non-formal,second-chanceeducationfocusedonskills

§ Acceleratedlearningprograms

§ Girls’empowermentcurricula

§ Curriculaadaptedtoruralcontexts

§ Mother-tongueeducation

§ Adaptededucationforchildrenlivingwithdisabilities

PAJE-Nieta;MaliOut-of-SchoolYouthProject

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Output-basedaid

Conditionalmicroloans

Cordaid

OBAEducationProgram

Cordaid

YCAB’sHopeprogram

§ Output-based financing

§ Conditionalmicro-loans

§ Conditional cashtransfers

§ Childmarriageactions

RootCause3:Householdeconomicbarriers

Whatdosuccessfulinnovationshaveincommon?

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Tailoredtolocalcontext

Stronglinkswithlocalcommunities

Planforscaleatinception

Diversifiedsourcesoffunding

Leveragetechnology,butonlyasneeded

Diverseandmulti-stakeholderpartnerships

Visionary, passionateleaders

Localrelevance Sustainability&scalability Collaboration&leadership

InnovativeFinanceMechanisms

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Innovative financingcanbeusedtoaddress theOOSCchallengeby:Improvingaccess

DebtinstrumentsLoanbuy-downs,educationbonds,

DCDBs,diasporabonds

Toenablegovernmentstoborrowcapitaltoprovideaccess tophysicalschools

Instrumentstoincreaserevenue

Remittancefunds,Corporatelevies,DIBSsandSIBs

TospendongettinghardtoreachOOSCintoschoole.g.hardshipallowances forteachers,alternativeeducationprovision

Instrumentsthattiefundingtoaccess&learningtargetsResults-basedfinancing,DIBs

InstrumentsthatcatalyzeschoolfinancemarketDebt,equity,patientcapital

ToencourageserviceproviderstoenrollOOSCandsupportthemtoachieveacademicoutputs

Governm

ents

ServiceProviders

Instrumentsthatreducehouseholdcosts

Scholarships,conditionaltransfersHouse-

holds

Tosupportlow-costnonstateschoolsinareaswherepublicdelivery isweakormissing

SocialimpactinvestmentsImpact investing

TosupportsocialentrepreneursdevelopinginnovativesolutionsforreachingOOSC(e.g.technology,alternativeeducation,etc.)

Toreducedirectandindirecthouseholdcostsofeducationforhouseholds

PolicyChangesandStrategies

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PolicyChangesandStrategies:System-wideReforms

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Keyreformstoreducethehouseholdcostsofeducation:

§ Theabolitionofschoolfees§ Increasedenrolment ratesinEasternandSouthernAfrica(WorldBank,2009),

andtoalesser extent inWest andCentralAfrica(UNICEFandUIS,2014).

§ Cashtransferprograms§ Increasedenrollment andattendance inschool,aswellasreductions inchild

labor,inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,andEasternandSouthernAfrica.§ E.g.BasicEducationAssistanceModel,Zimbabwe

§ Schoolfeedingprograms§ Consistent andpositive effectsonchildren’senrolment andattendance in

India(Jomaa etal.,2011)

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OOSCProfile

TargetedReform(s) Example/Impact

Ethnicminorities

Mother-tongueeducation

- Romania’sLawofEducation(2011)- prescribesfreepublicschoolingforethnicminoritiesintheirmother-tongue.

- Ghana’snon-formaleducationprogram“SchoolforLife”featuresclassesinmothertonguelanguagesforchildrenindisadvantagedcommunities.Ithashelpedover120,000childrentodate,with82%ofthemmakingthetransitiontoformaleducation.(UNICEF andUIS,2015)

Girls Child-friendlyandgender-sensitiveteachinginschools

Legal protection

- In-servicetrainingonchild-friendlyandgender-sensitiveteachinginGhanaprovedtobeeffectiveinimprovinggirls’enrolmentandretentioninschools(UNICEFandUIS,2012)

- Lawsandmeasurestorestrictchildmarriage

Workingchildren

Non-formalandtransitionaleducation

- “BasicEducationforHardTo-ReachUrbanWorkingChildren”projectinBangladeshprovideslifeskills-based,non-formalbasiceducation forworkingchildrenaged10-14years.(UNICEFandUIS,2015)

PolicyChangesandStrategies:TargetedReforms

Source:UNICEFandUIS(2015),FixingtheBrokenPromiseofEducationforAll:FindingsfromtheGlobalInitiativeonOut-of-SchoolChildren

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OOSCProfile

TargetedReform(s) Example/Impact

Childrenwithdisabilities

Legislativereform;teachertraining

- Serbia’sLawontheFoundationsof Education(2009)-prescribesthatschoolenrolmentpoliciesmustbeunconditional andinclusiveandabolishestheneedforanassessmentonthechild’scapacity/skillsasapre-conditionforenrolment.

- In-serviceprofessionaltrainingonteachingchildrenwithdisabilities.(UNICEFandUIS,2015)

Childreninconflict

Improvedaccesstoeducation throughtemporary learningspaces,andconstructionandrehabilitationofschools.

- TheBackonTrackProgram (UNICEF,GovernmentoftheNetherlands,andtheEuropeanCommission)- restoredaccesstoschoolfor6millionchildrenin40conflict-affectedcountriesandterritoriesbetween2006and2010.(BackofTrack andUNICEF,2011)

PolicyChangesandStrategies:TargetedReforms


ResourceNeeds

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Linearcostmodels Supply-sidecostmodels

Needs ofmarginalized

youthOurmodel

§ Lastdecade,linearcostmodelsestimatedglobalannualfundinggapsrangingfrom$6.5billion(Brunsetal.2003)to$17billion(Delamonica etal.2001).

§ Glewwe etal.(2006):Supply-sidefocusedmodelsonlycapturepartoftheOOSCchallenge.

§ EPDCandUNESCO(2009)accountfortheneedsofmarginalizedchildrenandestimateanannualfundinggapof$24.1billion(USconstant2007dollars)forprimaryandlowersecondaryschoolinalllow-incomecountries.

§ ThomasandBurnett(2015):focusontheneedsofmarginalizedyouth.

§ Annual costofenrollingout-of-schoolchildren=[PublicExpansioncost]+[HouseholdExpansioncost]+[TargetedInterventionscost]

ResourceneedsfortheeliminationofOOSCEvolutionofCostingModels…

Application:EstimatedtotalcostofenrollingOOSCinDRC

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▪ Theestimated totalcostofachievingUPEis$82perOOSCperyear,comparedto$47perchildperyearcurrentlyspent.

▪ $111million isequivalenttoone-quarterofDRC’stotaleducation budgetin2011.

▪ AfterthebulkofOOSCpassthroughbasiceducation, theannualperpupilcostwouldfall,becausecapitalexpansion spendingwouldnolongerberequired.

40%

47%

13%PublicExpansion

HouseholdExpansionTargetedInterventions

ExpenseType Cost(m) Currentsource

Expansion $44.5 Public

Expansion $51.4 HouseholdTargetedInterventions $14.7 n/a

TOTAL $110.6Source:ThomasandBurnett(2015)

LessonsLearnedforIndia

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Profilesofout-of-schoolchildren(OOSC)inIndia

§ ScheduledCastes(SCs)

§ ScheduledTribes(STs)

§ Muslims

§ OtherBackwardClasses(OBCs)

§ Low-income

§ Girls

§ Rural

InIndia,OOSCaremostlikelytobe:


Source:UNICEFandUIS(2014),GlobalInitiativeonOut-of-SchoolChildren:AsituationalstudyofIndia

CharacteristicsofOOSCinIndia

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Unlikelytoenter48%


Leftschool14%

BreakdownofOOSCinIndia(2014)

§ InIndia,almost halfofOOSCareunlikelytoeverenterschool.

Source:SRIIMRB2014

KeystatisticsonOOSCinIndiaPercentagedistributionofallchildrenandout-of-schoolchildrenbysocialgroups

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§ ChildrenofMuslim,SC,andSTcommunitiesmakeupmostoftheOOSCpopulationinIndia,accounting for67%,although theyonlymakeup40%ofthechildpopulation (UNICEFandUIS,2014).

§ WhiletheproportionofOBCsamongOOSCsishigh,itislowerthantheproportionofOBCsinIndia’schildpopulation.

6-10 years 11-13years

Allchildren Out-of-schoolchildren

Allchildren Out-of-schoolchildren

ST 12 17 11 19

SC 19 29 20 25

OBC 32 24 31 24

Others 24 9 25 10

Muslims 13 21 13 22

All 100 100 100 100


KeystatisticsonOOSCinIndiaProportionsofOOSC(6-13years)bygenderandage

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§ Genderdisparities amongOOSCareevidentacrossallages,particularly inthe11-13yearsagegroup.


KeystatisticsonOOSCinIndiaProportionsofout-of-schoolchildren(6-10years)bygenderandsocialgroups

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§ Inallsocialcategories,ahigherproportionofgirlsareoutofschoolthanboys.


Country DirectGDPLossfromforegoneprimaryeducation(%)

Probability-weightedlossfromforegonesecondaryeducation(%)

EconomiccostofOOSCas%ofGDP/Incomegap(microeconomicestimation)

Economiccost ofOOSCas%ofGDP/Incomegap(macroeconomicestimation)

GDPgrowth(annual%)

India1 0.11 0.05 0.16 0.91 7.57

India2 0.32 0.16 0.48 2.78 7.57

LossEstimatesofOOSCinIndia(Thomas andBurnett2015)

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India1:SRIIMRB2014India2:U-DISE2014

KeystatisticsonOOSCinIndia

BarrierstoEducationinIndia

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Demand-sidebarriers:§ Socio-cultural factors:

§ Femalerolesandresponsibilities§ Childmarriage

§ Economicfactors:§ Costsofschooling beyondfees

(examination fees,booksandstationery,uniformetc.)

§ Opportunitycostofchild labor§ Ruralpovertyandmigration§ Urbanpoverty,livelihood

uncertainty,andenvironmentrisks

Supply-sidebarriers:§ Poorlyfunctioning schoolsand

infrastructuraldeficiencies§ Discrimination andexclusionat

schools(primarilytowardsMuslims,SCs,STs,andOBCs)

§ Lackofresourcesandfacilities forchildrenwithdisabilities andchildrenaffectedbycivilstrife

§ Inadequate teachingmethods andcurriculum,andnon- mother-tonguelanguageofinstruction

§ Limited financing


ThedataprobleminIndia

ReasonswhyOOSCestimatesdiffer

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Definitions usedbydifferentsources

§ Relevantagegroup§ Gradesincluded§ Type ofschools§ Definition ofattendance

State leveldifferences § Minimum ageofadmission§ Beginning ofschoolyear§ Yearsinprimaryandupper primary education§ Rules ofmaintaining enrolment register

Datacollection andestimation process

§ Timingofthesurvey§ Purposeofthesurvey§ Respondent bias§ Capability ofdatacollectors§ Sampledesign§ Populationprojections

Source:UNICEFandUIS(2016),EstimatingtheNumberofOut-of-SchoolChildren:MethodologicalProblemsandAlternativeApproaches– Indiacasestudy

KeyAreasofReform

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§ System-widereform

§ Reducethehouseholdcostsofeducationthroughtheabolition ofschoolfeesandotherexpenses (e.g.uniforms,textbooks), feedingprograms,andconditional cashtransfers.

§ Targetgovernmentfundingtothespecificproblemse.g.federalchallengefunds

§ CollaboratewithNGOsandnon-stateproviders§ PrathamOpenSchools§ EducateGirlsandRajasthanDIB§ IndianSchoolFinanceCompanyfornon-state schools

§ ImprovedatacollectiononOOSC§ Needformoreresearchonchildrenat-riskofdroppingout,

harmonizationofdefinitions andmethodologies, andtheprovisionofsupporttostakeholders ontheuseofeducation data.


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§ Targetedreforms

§ Teachertrainingtoreducegenderdiscriminationandexclusionofchildrenwithdisabilitiesandminorityethnicandreligiousgroups§ Gender-sensitive teaching§ Teaching childrenwithdisabilities§ Mother-tongue instruction§ Inclusivecurriculaandeffortstoimproveschoolclimate

§ Promotionofalternative,flexibleeducationoptionsforworkingchildren§ Non-formaleducation§ Transitional education

KeyAreasofReform


SomeIdeastokeepinMind

1. Needawholesystemapproach:publicandnon-statesector2. Specificproblemsneedspecificsolutionstargetedatroot

causes– nosimpleoverallsolution3. Costsarehigherthansimplyaveragingcurrentperstudent

costs– differentcoststoovercomedifferentcauses4. Scopeformoreoutput-basedfinancing5. Needtofixthedataissues6. Andthisisjustthebeginning– evenamongenrolled

students,only71%attendschoolenoughtolearn(ASER,2014)

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ThankYou

Contact:[email protected]

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