NEW GREAT GAME

Regional Balance of

Power? Yussupova DurdonaInternational Relations ProgramInternational University of Japan

“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; Who rules the World Island commands the world.”

Sir Harold Mackinder“The Geographical Pivot of History”

Geography gives rise to unequal opportunities,

which in turn leads to unequal growth, which ultimately leads to war.

The New Great Game -----

game where Central Asia and the Caucasus are the subjects of “chessboard” (pawns) between great powers like the USA, Russia and China for regional and global dominance

Here the important target for the confrontation of major powers is oil and gas

The increasing role of Central Asia

Possession of huge hydrocarbon resources; The geographic position in the intersection of

Eurasian transport corridors and presence of a wide transport and communication network. Through Iran - to Persian Gulf, through Afghanistan and Pakistan — to Indian Ocean, through China — to Asian-Pacific region.

The importance of geographical position of Central Asia in the center of the Eurasia for security and stability of the entire continent;

The influence of each state of Central Asia on the balance of power in Eurasia

After 11/9 Central Asia became the target for international forces, especially USA in the “war on terror”.

Interests of PowersRussia: consolidated the region as a historical sphere of influence, both political and economic

China: oil diplomacy - decrease the dependence on Persian Gulf which is under the influence of the USA, mixture of “win-win” rhetoric on trade, sizeable handouts, close attention to power politics and a refusal to choose between Russia and the US

USA: to prevent Russian control of the region1. democratization process of the region2. Central Asia as the new source of hydrocarbon

resources: alternatives to Russian energy resources from which Europe is highly dependent

3. 11/9 – war on terrorism: military bases in Manas(since Dec, 2001) and Karshi-Khanabad (2001-2005)

Hydrocarbon fuels of Central Asia

HAS HAS NOT

TurkmenistanKazakhstanUzbekistan

KyrgyzstanTajikistan

Water in Central Asia

HAS HAS NOT

KyrgyzstanTajikistan

 

TurkmenistanKazakhstanUzbekistan

Struggle for water• Rogun Dam in Tajikistan – it would be the

highest per capita for generating electricity, and the world's tallest dam with a height of 335 metres. The hydroelectric power plant - total capacity of 3,600 MW (expected)

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan opposed to build dam: high consumption of water(!) and environmental threats

• Kambarata Dam in Kyrgyzstan - It will be one of the largest dams in the world at the time of its completion, standing approximately 275 metres high. The hydroelectric power plant - will generate 2,000 MW.

Kazakhstan – emerging Petro-State?

• Kazakhstan is among the 15 nations of the world having the largest hydrocarbon reserves.

• On-shore established resources of oil and gas condensate are 29bln tons

• By 2010, led to the discovery of more than 200 hydrocarbon accumulations (including over 100 oil fields and about 70 oil-and-gas fields).

• In 2000 Kashagan field was discovered as largest discovery in past 30 years, in 2012 began its production

Pipeline politics of oil• Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) – from Tengiz to

Novorossiysk, a Russian port on the Black Sea, 2001

• Atyrau-Samara pipeline – connects to Russian pipeline system

• Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) – from Azerbaijan to Turkish port of Ceyhan, 2005. (For Kz the utility of this route remains limited. So, there is initiative to build another pipeline, but Russia totally has blocked this project: Law of Sea or Lake?)

• Kazakh-China pipeline – will extend from Atyrau (Kashagan) to western China at Alashankou (Xinjiang), one of the longest pipelines in the world – 2228 km, project was completed in 2006

• Turkmenistan’s deposits as 4th largest (after Russia, Iran and Qatar) and Yolotan field as 2nd largest in the world.

• Europe is heavily dependent on Russia (Germany supplies 37%, Bulgaria-92%, Greece-90%, Czech-75%, Austria-51%, Hungary-65%, Baltic States-100% of gas from Russia).

80% of European supply flows through Ukraine. In 2006, 2009 Russia shut off gas to Ukraine during winter.

So, Europeans and the US want to develop routes outside Russian control ---- to bring CA gas to

Europe

Geopolitics of Gas

Gas pipeline projects: myth?

• Nabucco – potential key project, “southern corridor strategy” from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to Austria and Germany, very long (3300km) and expensive (€7,9bln)

The project has long been delayed, bogged down in disagreements between Turkey and Europe over terms and by maneuvers from Russia, which is pressing for a competing pipeline, South Stream.

• TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) – project promoted by ADB, very expensive, 1735 km in length. It would deliver about 33 bln m3 of gas to South Asia each year.

Problem – Afghanistan! (735 km must cross through Afghan territory)“Peace pipeline” between India and Pakistan?