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Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement: Leading
Narratives of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and
International Community. Investigation of
Dialogue among Parties.
Master Thesis
Student: Gunay Ismayilova
Academic Advisor: Dr. Elnur Soltanov
Baku, Azerbaijan
Spring Term
2012
The Research Questions:
I. What are the leading narratives of key parties about Turkish-Armenian Normalization?
II. How do narratives of key parties change within a set timeframe?
III. Is there any visible pattern and dialogue across the parties in the set time frame?
Theoretical Framework:
Conflict Resolution
Conflict Escalation and De-escalation
Model
Positions, Interests,
Needs
Multi-issue Bargaining
Model
+
??
+
s.c. “Armenian Genocide” -
1915
Armenia within USSR - 1920-1990
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict-
1991
Turkey close borders with
Armenia-1993
1st attempts of Turkey
and Armenia to reconcile -
2001
“Football Diplomacy”
2008
Signing Protocols-
2009
Process in deadlock
2010 - current
Periods of hostility Detente
What is “Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement”?
“The attempts of governments of the Republic of Turkey and theRepublic of Armenia to reconcile and build diplomatic relations, after thelong history of hostilities, started from ethnic tensions in 1915-1923 in theOttoman Empire and followed by closing borders and termination of alldiplomatic relations in 1993, as a result of Nagorno-Karabakh War. “
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict:
20% of occupied territories of Azerbaijan Republic
Military situation and closed borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan
600,000 IDPs and 250,000 refugees left without permanent accommodation
Why This is Important to Analyze?
Impact on Geopolitics of the Region:
Azerbaijan – Turkey alliance
Russia – Armenia alliance
Iran – Armenia alliance
Georgia’s position, as country’s, whose transit role can be shirked or partially lost
Why This is Important to Analyze?
Why This is Important to Analyze?
The Fate of Energy and Transportation Paths
Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan
Baku – Tbilisi – Kars
South Caucasus Gas Pipeline
Future energy and transportation projects
What Has been Said by Now?“Maybe soccer diplomacy could break the ice between Armenia and Turkey in the same way ping-
pong diplomacy launched relations between the United States and Communist China”
US-based Radio Liberty
" Baku made it amply clear before the protocols were signed that the opening of this border would represent a strategic blow to its efforts to put pressure on Armenia over Karabakh. Thus, Turkey’s diplomatic game plan was spoiled even before the
start of the normalization process in Zurich.
Semih Idiz, “ Insight Turkey” Journal
“My prediction is that if the Turkish-Armenian border is opened, the Azerbaijanipeople will find themselves in a hopeless, desperate situation, and will lose
faith in Turkey.” Elkhan Mehtiyev, Peace and Conflict Resolution Center, Baku,
Azerbaijan
By spring 2010, mistrust of Turkey grew significantly even among those political circles in Armenia that were originally very pro-rapprochement and argued in favor of it in discussions with nationalists and Diaspora actors. Armenian society’s perspective on relations with Turkey is again moving closer to that of the Diaspora.
Sergey Minasyan, Political Studies Department, Caucasus Institute, Yerevan
What Does This Research Paper Add into Discussion?
1
•Finds dominating narrative for each key-player
2
•Analyzes how key narratives change over time and for what reason (defining turning points)
3
•Looks for a dialogue among parties
Methodology
Main Parameters
Analyzed Parties Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, International community (the US, Europe)
Time frame August 2008 – August 2010 (25 months)
Type of Analysis Content Analysis
Unit of Analysis articles from online newspapers
States Chosen Sources # of articles
Armenia www.newsarmenia.ru 197
Azerbaijan www.trend.az 117
Turkey www.hurriyetdailynews.com
101
International
www.newyorktimes.com 14
Methodology:
Shall Rapprochement happen?
Scale
yes 1conditional yes 2conditional no 3
no 4
Scale:
Results
1. Finding Dominating Narrative for Each Key-Player
Overall Attitudes of Each Party:
YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NOARM AZE TR INT
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
77%
23%
41%
60%75%
25%
83%
17%
Shall Turkey and Armenia Reconcile?
Positions, Interests, and Needs:
• Security• Territorial Integrity• Survival
Armenia
•Economics•Politics•Ideology
NONE
•Politics•Energy Projects•Trade•Culture•Ideology
Armenia will reconcile with Turkey w/0 any preconditions. Turkey should first ratify Protocols
Azerbaijan & Turkey are allies. TurkeyShould consider NK conflict before ratifying protocols and opening borders
Azerbaijan Turkey
Turkey is for “Zero-Problems” Thus, Turkey wants to reconcile &open borders, but since Azerbaijan iscrucial for Turkey,Armenia shouldresolve NK conflictfirst.
2.Analysis of How Key Narratives Change Over Time and for What Reason
Intensity indicators:
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ARMAZELinear (AZE)TRINT
INTENCITY Signing Protocols
Int. support arti-cles
Domestic Protests
Signing ProtocolsAgreeing on RoadmapSep 6thMatch in Yerevan
Aug-0
8
Sep-
08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr-0
9
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug-0
9
Sep-
09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr-1
0
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-1
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
ARMAZETRINT
OPINIONS AGAINSTDomestic Protests
Protests from Diaspora and
Dashnaks party
Comparison of Opinions:
Armenian Parliament takes the issue from agenda
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
ARMAZETRINT
OPINIONS FORSigning Protocols
Int. support RoadmapSigning Protocols
A6 a6 b6 B6 A5 a5 b5 B5 A4 a4 b4 B4 A3 a3 b3 B3 A2 a2 b2 B2 A1 a1 S b1 B1 0a 0b
A5 B5 A4 a4 b4 B4 A3 a3 S b3 B3 A2 a2 b2 B2 A1 a1 b1 B1 0a 0b
Multi Issue Bargaining Model before and after Azerbaijan’s Intervention:
E
Turkey Armenia
1. A1 – B1 = Security concerns
2. A2 – B2 = Cultural Exchange
3. A3-B3 = Possibility for Armenians to visit Van City in Eastern Turkey
Turkey Armenia
5. A4 – B4 = Open Borders6. A5- B5 = Armenian Genocide7. A6 – B6 = Resolution of NK
conflict8. S = Bargaining Space
E
Analysis of a Dialogue Among Parties
Correlation analysis for finding dialogue among parties:
ARM AZE TR
ARM - no no
AZE no - no
TR no no -
Aug-0
8
Sep-0
8
Oct-0
8
Nov-0
8
Dec-0
8
Jan-
09
Feb-0
9
Mar
-09
Apr-0
9
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug-0
9
Sep-0
9
Oct-0
9
Nov-0
9
Dec-0
9
Jan-
10
Feb-1
0
Mar
-10
Apr-1
0
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-1
00
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
ARMAZETR
Average Indicator
Further Predictions
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Positions of Key Players in Future:
ARMAZETRINT
"The question of Turkey's opening borders with Armenia is closed and there will be no more return to this topic again“
Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan Republic
Limitations of current research
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Turkey, (February).• Ismailzade, F. (2005.). Turkey-azerbaijan: the honeymoon is over, 1-11.• Mikhelidze, N. (2010). The Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement at the Deadlock. Europe, (March).• Seyma Akkoyunlu. (2008).Politics.• Pinar Ipek (2009). Azerbaijan ’ s Foreign policy and Challenges for Energy Security. Middle East Journal,
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