All Change: The May Years

Malcolm Gillies AUA Managing Change in Higher Education

City University London 1 July 2016

“I am . . . at the service of ordinary working people.” (30 June 2016)

What a difference a week makes . . .

“The will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered. . . . I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.” (David Cameron, 24 June 2016)

“You’re not laughing now.” (Nigel Farage, 28 June 2016)

“’I’m seven, or seven and a half out of 10’, on EU” (Jeremy Corbyn, reported on 11 June 2016)

“If you are out, you are out.” (Jean-Claude Juncker, 27 June 2016)

“You MUST have SPECIFIC from Boris OTHERWISE you cannot guarantee your support.” (Sarah Vine to Michael Gove, 29 June 2016)

The biggest effect on HE: the economy

“Tax rises and spending cuts”; “undoubtedly we shall be poorer”; we must “live within our means” (George Osborne, 28 June 2016)

“An economic post-traumatic stress disorder” (Mark Carney, 30 June 2016)

“Lower growth . . . higher inflation . . . higher unemployment . . . lower [base] rate . . . lower pound” (Mark Carney, 30 June 2016)

For universities: funding reductions, loan system and admission caps, reduced EU (increased non-EU?) students, lower total research funding?

A leap into the void?

A fractured nation: on 23 June who voted to leave?

Lord Ashcroft’s survey of 12,369 people: Age: 65+, 60% leave; 18-25, 27% Ethnicity: white, 53%; Asian, 33%, black, 27% Religion: “Christian”, 58%, “Muslim”, 30% Social group: AB 43%, C2DE 64% Identity*: “English”, 79%; “British”, 40% Education: Univ. degree, 43%, higher degree, 36%,

in full-time education, 19% (Source: www.lordashcroft.com, 24 June 2016)

Exit fears in E27 countries: who is next?

Italy 42% The Netherlands 41% Sweden 40% Denmark 39% . . . . . . Spain 21% Bulgaria 18% Romania 15% (Source: ORB International, poll of 13 EU countries, 7 January 2016;

comparable UK figure was 54%; “don’t knows” redistributed.)

What was the Brexit referendum really about?

A mass protest against elites, immigration and austerity?

A massive extension of Occupy, now here to stay, but not sure what is next on the agenda?

A spanner in the cogs of global capitalism?

A further evidence of the urgent need to rebalance labour and capital in the economy?

(F)UK HE outside the EU: the basics

• Cameron’s “deal” (Feb. 2016)

• Bologna and EHEA

• UK universitys fears about a “Leave” win

• Effects on research

• Trading models and the four freedoms

Cameron’s “deal”: British reform demands to EU (2 February 2016)

• Economic governance

• Competitiveness

• Immigration

• Sovereignty (financial, legal, geographic, rights)

“The UK could get the benefits of the single market but not the ‘burdens’ of bailing out the eurozone” (George Osborne, Berlin, 3 November 2015)

“Ever closer union is not right for us any longer” (Osborne, 3 Nov 2015)

“Bologna Zone” of Higher Education (2016)

UK university fears about a “Leave” win

• Weaker collaborations in education and research

• More dramatic effect upon research (Horizon 2020) than on (higher) education, but education changes more costly

• Fewer students from EU studying in UK, probably on less favourable funding arrangements

• Backward tendency towards Anglosphere collaborations

• Tighter immigration effects , particularly for London institutions

• Loss of vital EU (cultural, linguistic) skills

• Loss of “soft power” diplomacy

• Loss of ground to the open, liberal agenda.

Five university reasons to remain

1. EU is a major supporter of UK research

2. EU supports UK universities in growing businesses/jobs

3. Talented EU students and staff bring benefits to UK teaching and research, and the UK economy

4. EU provides “life-changing opportunities for British students and staff”

5. EU funds and supports most talented researchers.

(Source: blog.universitiesuk.ac.uk/2015/10/12)

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/en/horizon-2020-statistics (2015)

Horizon 2020 Associate Nations grants

Switzerland 2% Norway 1.3%

Israel 1.2% Turkey 0.6% Serbia 0.3% Iceland 0.2%

Also small grants below 0.2% each to Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Albania, Faroe Islands

(Source: https://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/sites/horizon2020/files/hori zon_2020_first_results.pdf; percentages are of share in signed grant agreements)

Summary: Higher education and research

• Not a reform issue, but much affected by it.

• Solidly pro-EU, on all scores, telling a success story of closer collaboration and integration.

• Fearing loss of EU income (for research excellence, student fees) would not be compensated for

• Fearing a less liberal environment both in UK and in the rest of Europe

• Organizing “to ensure staff and students do vote in referendum”

Note EU countries were more mixed on BREXIT effects in HE. Some saw more research funding or student opportunity if UK left EU. Others feared UK benefits in growing services integration, incl. in education.

Trading Models for a post-EU UK? Where would UK universities fit in?

• EEA : Norway • Bilateral agreements: Switzerland • Customs union: Turkey • Free trade association : NAFTA • Traditional Most Favoured Nation status • Start own FTA: “Anglosphere” Questions: How long will it take to adopt and effect

a new model? Will universities or research be affected if UK seeks

to restrict any of the four fundamental EU freedoms, particularly of people?

The four EU freedoms

Goods

Capital

People/Labour

Services

Education in the EU: what the Treaty says

“The Union shall contribute to the development of quality education by encouraging cooperation between Member States and, if necessary, by supporting and supplementing their action, while fully respecting the responsibility of the Member States for the content of teaching and the organisation of education systems and their cultural and linguistic diversity.”

(Source: Article 165 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European

Union (Consolidated Version, 9 May 2008))

Post-EU: Priorities guiding HE change

1. Rethink stakeholders; think students.

2. Rethink vision; think people not things or concepts.

3. Rethink mission; think communities.

4. Rethink core purposes; think education.

5. Rethink values; think tolerance and service.

6. Rethink future; think alumni.

7. Rethink funding; think affordability.

8. “These times call for principles, purposes, and clarity: in short, for leadership.” (Nicola Sturgeon, BBC News, 27 June 2016)

Parting thoughts 1

1. UK desperately needs a formal, consolidated, written constitution. Is it too late even to try?

2. (F)UK: As Scotland tries to leave the UK, should London also attempt to leave? If so, how?

LONDRA BALLERÀ DA SOLA?

Anche nella capitale ci si chiede se valga la pena restare nel Regno Unito. I londinesi si sentono la locomotiva di un paese che non li capisce, anzi prova a contenerne il successo. Una proposta per una città-Stato all’interno di una federazione di Gran Bretagna.

(Source: Malcolm Gillies, Limes, 15 October 2014)

Parting Thoughts 2

3. Are UK universities united or divided? Just like the country, the “haves” and “have nots”?

4. How do universities lead, and not just mimic, the geo-socio-political changes now happening without and within?

All Change: The May Years malcolm.gillies@pobox.com