Second Global Conference on Food Security, Agriculture and Climate Change, Hanoi 2012

Accelerating adaptation: today's priorities for a 2030 world

Andy Jarvis Theme leader, Adaptation to progressive climate change

Urgency and magnitude

Historical impacts on food security

% Yield impact for wheat

Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Our ability to grow food in 2050

In order to meet global demands,

we will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Seguridad alimentario en riesgo

Transformation in agriculture

Incremental adaptation

• Farmers are adapting all the time • But the questions remains if it is at a

rate that is fast enough • And if the incremental adjustments are

in the right direction to enable the systematic adjustment

• An example of how we can speeden up incremental adaptation

Farms of the future The Concept

Three ongoing pilots

Yamba analogue map + Study Tour Itinerary + Activities - Zoom

-Weather sttin visit - Bean trial visit - Tree nursery visit

Lushoto CCAFS site

Farms of the future Journey to Yamba’s plausible futures

Tanzania

Morogoro

Mwitikilwa

Njombe

Nyombo

Mbinga

Farms of the future Taking the analogue concept to the field

Lushoto Mbuzii Yamba

Morogoro

Mwitikilwa

Nyombo

Njombe

Mbinga

Kinole

FOTF in Tanzania

Analogue study Tour Villages visited Starting

point

Sepukila Village: -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and water conservation technique -Coffee nursery -Stoves Masasi Village: -Water source -Fish pond -Biogas Mtama Village: - Bee keeping

-Market value chain social enterprise visit - Input supply Stockists

-Weather station visit - Bean trial visit - Tree nursery visit

Farms of the future Journey to Yamba’s plausible futures

Run Analogues Protocol – Beora (Nepal) Farms of the future Journey Beora’s plausible futures

Analogue 1st Exchange visit - Nepal Chitwan - Beohra

Blog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/

Scope of the system under examination

Participatory process to chose socially and culturally appropriate exchange locations and perform system analysis

Source: Ariella Helfgott

1

4 2

3

Key environmental challenges and vulnerabilities

Local values and visions and aspirations for the future

Farms of the future Enabling farmers adaptation learning across analogue sites in Nepal

Systems adaptation • Supports incremental adaptation • But also ensures that the direction

farmers take is along the correct trajectory

• Involves design of suitable policies • Incentivizing the changes that are

needed • And in some cases, overcoming

technological constraints • E.g. breeding for a 2030 world

Why do we need breeding? • For starters, we have novel climates

Crops biologically at tipping points

•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C

•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree

Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS

Bean The most important food legume in tropical Latin America

and East and southern Africa

Area harvested

Current bean suitability

Changes in Beans Suitability

• Average global area of suitability for growing beans may be reduced by 6.6% by 2020 • But wide range of change in suitability from -87% to +66% across regions.

Which climatic constraint affects the most beans?

Major climate constraints: heat stress drought stress

• Adaptation to drought stress – Fitting the right root system to each production environment:

Deeper root system – Root whorls – basal root Improved genotypes with vigorous root systems – Stomatal control – Improved photosynthate remobilization under stress

• Adaptation to heat stress – Tepary bean “Sonora 32” (P. acutifolius) = more tolerant of

high temperature at germination

Potential breeding strategies

Tepary bean

Impacts on staples in SSA

• Cassava consistently outperforms other staples in terms of changes in suitability

Cassava gaining while other fail

The Rambo root!

Outperforming others

The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean

Cassava’s role as a substitution crop

• Cassava as a fallback crop under an uncertain climate (risk management)

• Cassava as the substitution crop for other staples more sensitive to heat and drought

• What are the socio-cultural constraints to a shift in staple, and how can this shift be most effectively made?

Transformational change

• Different livelihood systems for rural communities

• Different structural make-up of the agricultural and food system at national and regional scales

• Crucial to plan for transformational change, and not wait until it happens

• One example where it is needed….

Suitability in Cauca

• Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050

• The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities.

MECETA

The need to prioritise

• Impact studies need to shift from scare stories into understanding the entry points for adaptation interventions

• We need to move beyond shopping lists of adaptation options to investment portfolios, with robust numbers on costs, benefits and identification of constraints

Adaptation entry points in maize-bean systems

A MAC style prioritisation framework for CSA?

Time

Upt

ake

of s

usta

inab

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gric

ultu

ral p

ract

ices

Innovation / Identification of practices

Pre-investment (eg, development funds, climate finance)

Implementation at scale / Establishment of institutions

Demonstration of agro-economic and sustainability potential

Policy shifts and large-scale changes in practices, livelihoods and environmental impacts

Demonstration of financial / commercial viability and sustainability outcomes

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