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Checking In or Checking Out? Parties, Issues, and Campaigns
in European Elections
Jae‐Jae Spoon Department of Political Science
University of North Texas
Center for European Studies, UNC‐Chapel Hill, Sept. 20, 2013
European Parliament Overview
EPP‐36%
PES‐25%
ALDE‐11%
ECR‐7%
NGL‐4%EFD‐4%
NI‐4%
G‐EFA‐8% 766 Seats
Voting in European Elections
Less is at stake (Reif and Schmitt 1980, 1984)
• Turnout is lower
• Smaller parties do better
• Government parties do worse, especially at the midterm of the election cycle
Vote Choice in EP Elections
• Vote for same party (Partisan)
• Vote for a different party (Switcher)
• Don’t vote (Abstainer)
What determines vote choice in EP elections?
What is the role of– Parties?– Ideology?– Government satisfaction?– Media?
Figure 1. Motivating the European Voter
Hypotheses I
H1: The closer voters are to the position of their national party on the left‐right dimension, the less likely they are to switch or abstain in EP elections. (Sincere‐Domestic)
H2: The greater the dissatisfaction with government performance, the more likely voters are to switch or abstain in EP elections. (Protest‐Domestic)
H3: The larger the distance between voters and the position of their national party on the European integration dimension, the more likely they are to switch or abstain in EP elections. (Sincere‐EU)
Hypotheses II
H4: The greater the dissatisfaction with the EU, the more likely voters are to switch or abstain in EP elections. (Protest‐EU)
H5: The more politicized the issue of European integration, the greater the impact of the distance between voters and parties on the EU dimension on the likelihood of switching or abstaining in EP elections. (Sincere‐Politicization)
H6: The more politicized the issue of European integration, the greater the impact of dissatisfaction with the EU on the likelihood of switching or abstaining in EP elections. (Protest‐Politicization)
Data and Methods
• 2009 European Election Study• 2009 Media Study
DV: Partisan, Switcher, AbstainerIV‐Individual: Distance between voter’s position and party
on left‐right and EU dimensions, government approval, EU satisfaction, partisanship, political awareness, education, gender, age (controls)
IV‐Context: Party size, polarization of EU integration, campaign tone, midterm election, new democracy, compulsory voting (controls)
Multi‐level model with random effects
Table 2. Predicted Probabilities of Direct Effects of Motivations
Sincere
Sincere
Sincere
Sincere
Protest
Protest
Protest
Protest
Figure 2. Marginal Effect of EU Distance across EU Politicization
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5 1 1.5 2
d(Abstaining)/d(EU Distance)
EU Party Polarization
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
‐0.15 ‐0.05 0.05 0.15
d(Abstaining)/d(EU Distance)
EU Tone
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.5 1 1.5 2
d(Switching)/d(EU Distance)
EU Party Polarization
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
‐0.15 ‐0.05 0.05 0.15
d(Switching)/d(EU Distance)
EU Tone
‐0.5
‐0.4
‐0.3
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.5 1 1.5 2
EU Party Polarization
d(Abstaining)/d(EUSatisfaction)
‐0.4
‐0.3
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
‐0.1 ‐0.05 0 0.05
EU Tone
d(Abstaining/d(EU Satisfaction)
Figure 3. Marginal Effect of EU Satisfaction across EU Politicization
Summary of Findings
• Both sincere and protest motivations drive changes in vote choice between first‐ and second‐order elections.
• Motivations are mediated by context‐level factors.
• Parties are crucial in shaping choices in EU elections.
What Can We Expect in the 2014 Elections?
• Europe matters
• Politicization of Europe
• Increased turnout
• Support for Euroskeptic parties