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Roland Fryer (Harvard University), winner of the Calvó-Armengol International Prize, delivered this lecture at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics on May 31, 2012 as part of the Prize activities. About the Calvó Prize: http://www.barcelonagse.eu/Calvo-Armengol-Prize.html
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Inequality in the 21st Century:The Declining Significance of Discrimination
Roland G. Fryer, Jr.Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics
Harvard UniversityEdLabsNBER
CONFIDENTIAL
Among cities that participate in NAEP, the magnitude of racial differences in educational achievement is startling.
Overview The Achievement Gap
Albuquerque
Atlanta
Austin
Baltimore
Boston
Charlotte
Chicago
Clevela
ndDall
as
Detroit
Distric
t of C
olumbia
Fresn
o
Hillsboro
ugh County
(FL)
Houston
Jeffers
on County (KY)
Los A
ngeles
Miami-D
ade
Milwau
kee
New Yo
rk City
Philadelp
hia
San Dieg
o0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent Proficient, 8th Grade Math, NAEP 2011
whiteblackHispanic
Albuquerque
Atlanta
Austin
Baltimore
Boston
Charlotte
Chicago
Clevela
ndDall
as
Detroit
Distric
t of C
olumbia
Fresn
o
Hillsboro
ugh County
(FL)
Houston
Jeffers
on County (KY)
Los A
ngeles
Miami-D
ade
Milwau
kee
New Yo
rk City
Philadelp
hia
San Dieg
o0
102030405060708090
100
Percent Proficient, 8th Grade Reading, NAEP 2011
whiteblackHispanic
CONFIDENTIAL 3
OverviewEducation and Later-Life Outcomes
Accounting for educational achievement drastically reduces racial and socioeconomic inequality across a wide range of important life outcomes.
Wages Unemployment Have Savings Less than 10K in savings
Negative Net Worth
Do not own home Any College Public Assistance-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
28%
190%
283%
250%
87%
234%
-27%
141%
0.6%
90% 87%76%
42%
114%
137%
33%
Black-White Differences in Economic Outcomes (NLSY79)Before and After Controlling for 8th Grade Test Scores
Raw B/W Gap After controlling for AFQT
CONFIDENTIAL 4
Teen Pregnancy Child out of wedlock0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%126%
20%
820%
514%
Social Outcomes
Raw B/W Gap After controlling for AFQT
SF-12 Mental and Physical Health Index0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.20 SD
0.059 SD
Health Outcomes
Raw B/W Gap After controlling for AFQT
Violent Crime Incarceration0%
20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%180%200%
68%
182%
25%38%
Crime Outcomes
Raw B/W Gap After controlling for AFQT
OverviewEducation and Later-Life Outcomes
CONFIDENTIAL 5
Nearly 30% of the population
0.8 s.d. behind their white peers in math
and reading
there is a 1.2%-2% growth premium for a 1
s.d. increase in academic achievement
Based upon Calculations from McKinsey (2009)
The racial achievement gap cost $310 -$525 billion in lost GDP in 2008
---------------------------------------------------------And $1.5 – $2.5 trillion
cumulatively from 1998-2008
What if we could have eliminated the racial achievement
gap by 1998?
is
and
OverviewEconomic Impacts
CONFIDENTIAL 6
South Korea
Finlan
d
Switz
erlan
dJap
an
Canad
a
Netherl
ands
New Ze
aland
Belgium
Australi
a
German
y
Estonia
Icelan
d
Denmark
Slove
nia
Norway
France
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Austria
Poland
Swed
en
Czech Rep
ublic
United Kingd
om
Hungary
Luxe
mbourg
United St
ates
Irelan
d
Portuga
lSp
ain Italy
Greece
Israe
l
Turke
yChile
Mexico
400
450
500
550
600
Mathematics Literacy Among 15-Year-Olds, 2009
Luxe
mbourg
Switz
erlan
d
Norway
United St
ates
Austria
Denmark
Icelan
d
Swed
en
United Kingd
om
Netherl
ands
Belgium
France
Canad
aJap
an
Irelan
dIta
lySp
ain
Australi
a
German
y
Finlan
d
South Korea
Portuga
l
New Ze
aland
Czech Rep
ublic
Hungary
Poland
Slova
k Rep
ublicChile
Mexico
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
Annual Expenditure Per Student, 2007
OECD Average
Source: OECD, Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), 2009
Source: Education at a Glance 2010: OECD Indicators
United States vs. OECD Countries
OECD Average
OverviewInternational Results
CONFIDENTIAL 7
On average, American students lag 0.75 s.d.
behind their top ranked international peers on the
PISA test
there is a 1.2%-2% growth premium for a 1 s.d. increase in academic
achievement
Based upon Calculations from McKinsey (2009)
The international achievement gap cost $1.3 -$2.3 trillion in lost GDP in 2008
What if we could have closed the
international achievement gap
By 1998?
OverviewEconomic Impacts
CONFIDENTIAL
• Test Score Gap Does Not Exist at 9 months old• The correlation between 9 month old scores and 12 year old scores is 0.3• Black kids lose ground starting at age 2
Basic Facts
CONFIDENTIAL
• Black kids enter kindergarten 0.64 SD (or 8 months) behind their white peers• The gap can be accounted for by 13 simple variables that proxy for Pre-K home environment• The gap grows 0.1 SD per year from Kindergarten through eighth grade• We don’t really know why
Basic Facts
9 months Pre-K Kindergarten 1st grade 3rd Grade 5th Grade 8th grade0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
The Evolution of the Racial Achievement Gap through 8th grade
Months behind in math Months behind in reading
CONFIDENTIAL
Possible Explanations
We tested dozens of hypotheses, including:
• Poor parenting• Racist Teachers• Summer Setback• Flawed Standardized Tests• School Quality
16%
75%
41% 45%
17%
49%
9%
48%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Spank child Give child a "time-out"
How parents respond to misbehavior, by race
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian
0.093 0.090.103 0.097
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Reading Reading, accounting for
parenting
Math Math, accounting for
parenting
Lost ground from Fall Kindergarten to Spring 1st grade, before and after accounting for parenting practices,
ECLSK
Lost Ground
CONFIDENTIAL
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
14:1
16:1
18:1
20:1
22:1
24:1 22.3 :1
20.4 :1
18.7 :1
17.9 :117.2 :1 17.3 :1
16.0 :1 15.6 :1
Student to Teacher Ratio
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
2006$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$5,243$6,049 $6,268
$7,347
$8,790 $8,949
$10,508$11,438
Total Expenditure Per Pupil (2008-09 $))$12,116
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20060%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
23.5% 27.5%49.6% 53.1% 56.8% 61.8%
Percentage of Teachers with a Master's Degree or Higher
1971 1975 1980 1984 1988 1990 1994 1996 1999 2004 2008175
200
225
250
275
300
325Reading and Math Achievement of 9, 13, and 17 year-olds,
1971-2008
9 year-olds13 year-olds17 year-olds
Conventional Wisdom Seems Ineffective
CONFIDENTIAL
Distributed a total of $10 million to kids in 5 cities.A. Input Experiments
• Dallas• Houston• Washington DC
B. Output Experiments• New York City• Chicago
• Teacher Incentives
Financial Incentives
CONFIDENTIAL
Financial Incentives
CONFIDENTIAL
Financial Incentives
CONFIDENTIAL
The Achievement Gap
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1 Past Interventions vs. the Racial Achievement Gap
Ann
ual T
reat
men
t Eff
ect
on S
tude
nt A
chie
vem
ent
(in S
D u
nits
)
CONFIDENTIAL
Results From High-Performing Charters
Harlem Children’s
Zone
CONFIDENTIAL
Results From Charter Schools
NYC Chart
ers ES
/MS/H
S (Hoxb
y and M
urarka
2009)
National
Sample
ES/M
S/HS (
CREDO 2010)
National
Sample
MS (Math
emati
ca 2010)
40 CMOs ES/M
S/HS (
Mathem
atica
2011)
Harlem
Children
's Zone E
S (Dobbie
and Fr
yer 2
011)
Harlem
Children
's Zone M
S (Dobbie
and Fr
yer 2
011)
Mass. C
harters
* MS (
Abdulkadiro
glu et
al. 2
011)
Mass. C
harters
* HS (
Abdulkadiro
glu et
al. 2
011)
SEED
Boarding S
chools M
S/HS (
Curto an
d Frye
r 2011)
KIPP Lynn M
S (Angri
st et
al. 2010)
All KIPP M
S (Math
emati
ca 2010)
Houston Public
Turn
around (F
ryer 2
011)-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Math
Reading
Notes: Solid bars represent experimental estimates. Striped bars represent quasi-experimental estimates. *Oversubscribed Schools only.
A. Broad Sur-veys
B. Studies of High-Performing Schools
CONFIDENTIAL
Finding the Vaccine
Class S
ize
Per Pupil E
xpen
diture
Teach
ers w
ith no ce
rtificati
on
Teach
ers w
ith M
A+Index
Teach
er Fe
edback
Data-D
riven
Instr
uction
Tutorin
g
Instructi
onal Tim
e
High-Ex
pectati
onsIndex
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
-0.41
0.01
-0.40-0.45
-0.31
0.79 0.75
0.93
0.800.70
0.59
Traditional vs. Non-Traditional School Inputs and School Effectiveness
Average Correlation with Reading and Math Effectiveness (in months of schooling)
Mon
ths o
f Sch
oolin
g
vs.
CONFIDENTIAL
The key goal is to translate charter schools’ successful policies into common principles and then transplant them into traditional public schools. To this end, EdLabs initiated a multi-year study of NYC charters that determined that the following five policies and practices have the greatest correlation with student achievement:
More Time in School• Extended day, week, and school years are all integral components of successful school
models. In the case of Harlem Children’s Zone’s Promise Academy, students have nearly doubled the amount of time on task compared to students in NYC public schools.
Small Group Tutoring• In top performing schools, classroom instruction is supplemented by individualized
tutoring, both after school and during the regular school day.
Human Capital Management • Successful charters reward teachers for performance and hold them accountable if
they are not adding value.
Data Driven Instruction and Student Performance Management• In the top charter schools, students are assessed frequently, and then, in small groups,
re-taught the skills they have not yet mastered.
Culture and Expectations• In successful schools, students buy into the school’s mission and into the importance of
their education in improving their lives.
An Experiment in Houston: The Five Tenets
CONFIDENTIAL
ImplementationIncreased Time in School
The school day was extended in Apollo schools during the 2010-11 school year: 7:45am – 4:15pm Monday through Thursday, and 7:45am – 3:15pm on Fridays. This was an average of an hour longer per school day.The school year was extended by five school days. Apollo students reported for school on August 16, 2010, while the rest of the district began on August 23, 2010.
Bottom line: The difference between instructional time in 2009-10 and 2010-11 amounts to approximately 30 school days – that’s 6 additional weeks of school for students.
Pre-Intervention
Unsuccessful NYC ChartersPost-Intervention
Successful NYC Charters0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
A: Instructional Hours per Year
CONFIDENTIAL
ImplementationHuman Capital
In addition to finding nine new principals, teacher turnover spiked to 53% in Apollo schools over the summer of 2010. Value-added data shows that teachers who returned as Apollo teachers had a much stronger history of increasing student achievement in every subject, relative to those who left.
Language Math Reading Science Social Studies
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
Teacher Value Added
LeftStayed
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Teacher Departure Rates
Apollo Schools
Comparison Schools
CONFIDENTIAL
ImplementationHigh Dosage Differentiation: Tutoring and Double-Dosing
•All sixth and ninth grade students received daily 2:1 tutoring in math
•Seventh, eighth, tenth, and eleventh graders received an extra reading or math course if they had tested behind grade level in the previous year
• All told, middle school students received approximately 215 hours of tutoring/double-dosing, and high school students received 189.
CONFIDENTIAL
ImplementationData-Driven Instruction
•In addition to required HISD assessments, Apollo schools administered two additional comprehensive benchmark assessments in four core subjects: math, reading, science, and social studies.
•After each assessment, teachers received student-level data and used this to have one-on-one goal-setting conversations with students.
CONFIDENTIAL
ImplementationCulture and Expectations
At the end of the 2009-10 school year, The New Teacher Project interviewed all teachers in what would become Apollo schools. Those who returned for the 2010-11 year showed a demonstrably stronger commitment to the Apollo 20 philosophy.
No Excu
ses
Alignmen
t with
Miss
ion
Studen
t Ach
ievem
ent
Commitmen
t to St
udents
Studen
t Motiva
tion0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Interview Responses
LeftStayed
CONFIDENTIAL
ImplementationCulture and Expectations
Reports from student focus groups provide a lens into the culture shift.
1. Pre-Treatment: There were lots of fights and “wilding out” all the time. Teachers didn’t give homework. People just showed up and basically went through the motions. Observers noted rowdy hallways, messing around, not taking school very seriously.
2. Treatment Fall: The extended school day was a big shift. Constant complaints of exhaustion. Everyone’s tired. The students are tired. The teachers are tired.
3. Treatment Spring: “The food in the cafeteria sucks.” “I had a hamburger that wasn’t any good.”• Student: “The apples taste like soap.”• Project Manager: “Next time I visit I’ll figure out why the apples
tasted like soap.”
From a teacher in Fall 2011: “The sixth graders from last year who are seventh graders now have started to shift the whole school culture. The climate is really changing – it’s calmer everywhere, and there are no more fights.”
CONFIDENTIAL
First-Year Results
In Math, we see positive and statistically significant results in both middle and high school. The gains in grades that received high-dosage tutoring were dramatic.
The reading results are mixed. While high schools performed extremely well, there is little evidence of success in middle school – indeed some estimates are negative.
6th 7th and 8th All Middle 9th 10th and 11th All High Pooled
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.484
0.125
0.237
0.726000000000002
0.165
0.363
0.277
0.113
-0.067-
0.00800000000000002
0.116
0.215 0.188
0.062
Apollo Treatment Effects
Math Reading
CONFIDENTIAL
Results In Context
Pooling all grades together, the results are strikingly similar to those achieved by the Harlem Children’s Zone Promise Academy Middle Skill and KIPP – two of the country’s most recognized charter operators.
Average NYC Charter Harlem Children's Zone (MS)
Average KIPP (MS) Apollo Year 10
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.09
0.229
0.260.277
0.04 0.047
0.09
0.062
Treatment Effects in Context
Math Reading
CONFIDENTIAL
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Initiative Cost/Student IRR
Apollo 20 $1,837 21.66 %
“No Excuses” Charter School $2,496 18.50 %
Early Childhood Education $8,879 7.6 %
Reduced Class Size $3,501 6.20 %
Using an estimate of the correlation between test scores and future earnings, we can calculate a rough rate of return for the first year of the Apollo experiment and compare it to other popular education interventions.
CONFIDENTIAL
The Path Forward
This year, we’re expanding the program to:
1. Eleven randomly selected elementary schools in Houston
2. Seven schools – in their own feeder pattern – in Denver.
The model is far from perfect, but it’s enough to get started.
We can save 10 million kids by 2020.
