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Identifying and Preparing for Technological DevelopmentsBrian Kelly, Innovation Advocate, Cetis

• A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference

What approaches does our enthusiastic librarian take in identifying technology trends?

Identifying and Preparing for

Technological Developments

Brian KellyInnovation Advocate

Cetis

University of Bolton

Bolton, UK

Contact DetailsEmail: ukwebfocus@gmail.com

Twitter: @briankelly

Cetis Web site: http://www.cetis.ac.uk/

Blog: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/

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Slides and further information available at

https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/jibs-2015/

A presentation for the JIBS 2015 event on “Technology will not defeat us: offering a good service in difficult times”, Birmingham on 26 February 2015

Event hashtag: #jibs15

Contents

Introduction

• About me

Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Identifying Developments

• The NMC Horizon Report for Libraries & the Delphi process:

What are the major technology trends?

Beyond the technology trends – the drivers accelerating

technology adoption

Beyond the technology trends & drivers – the challenges

impeding technology adoption

• Carrying out your own technology predictions

Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Institutional Planning

• Preparing for the implications

• Conclusions

3

Intr

od

ucti

on

About Me

Brian Kelly

• Innovative Advocate at Cetis since Oct 2013

• Was UK Web Focus at UKOLN from 1996-2013

• Interests in promoting use of innovative technologies

and practices in higher education

• Independent consultant after 28 February (TBC)!

In 2014:

• Delivered “planning for the future” half-day workshops at

international library conferences in Pretoria & Bath

• Invited expert, NMC Horizon Report, Academic Libraries

In 2013:

• Presented paper on “Reflecting on Yesterday,

Understanding Today, Planning for Tomorrow”

paper at Umbrella 20134

Intr

od

ucti

on

Predicting the Future: The Risks

Risks in attempting to predict the future:

• We get it wrong

– the future didn’t materialise

• We get it wrong

– we were too cautious

• Futorologists have biases

5

Pre

dic

tio

ns

Looking at the Futurologists

• Gartner report

6

Gartner

Beware vested

interests which

may be

threatened by

implications of

predictions

7

Gartner May Be Too

Scared To Say It, But the

PC Is Dead,

Mark Hachman,

Readwrite Web, 5 April

2013

We commission

reports from

experts in the field

8PDF

We commission

reports from

experts in the field

9

… is an information professional who has specialized

in the fields of electronic information provision for over

20 years.

In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for

digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of

the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding

and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library

metadata.

A Collaborative Approach

We could use Twitter

10

Tweet your ideas

with event hashtag

I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future! #jibs15 58

Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off

from visiting when it’s raining! #jibs15 22

and implications

for libraries

We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to

the library #jibs15 41

Discuss alternative

implications …

So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library

building? #jibs15 48

10

& issues such as legal

implications, business

models, …

What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use?

Importing banned book? … #jibs15 #wtf 27

Feel free to add

implications for users

…

Open collaborative approaches can help minimise biases, provide fresh

insights, … (but Twitter probably isn’t the best tool for this!)

THE Article

Article which summarised the

“6 key trends accelerating

technology adoption in

higher education in 2015”

published in Times Higher

Education on 23 Feb 2014

Based on the NMC Horizon

Report: 2015 Higher

Education Edition

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About the NMC Horizon Library Study

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NMC Horizon Report, 2014:

Library edition:

• Published in Aug 2014

• Based on ideas from panel

of experts

• Ideas refined using Delphi

process

• Report available under

Creative Commons licence

Your interests:

• What are the technology trends? What are the implications for me?

• What is the ‘Delphi process’? Can I use it?

NMC Panel

Panel composed of 47

library and technology

experts from 16

countries on five

continents (including 3

from UK)

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Short-Term Technology Trends

What technology trends did the NMC Horizon panel identify?

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Seven key categories were identified:

Tech

no

log

y T

ren

ds

Short-Term Technology Trends

Two areas of importance in the short-term (<1 year to adoption) were identified and prioritised:

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“electronic publishing is redefining the tools between print and digital,

still image and video, passive and interactive”

Report gives examples of innovative uses e.g. ANU Press, established

in 2003 to explore & enable new modes of scholarly publishing.

“the way we think about software itself is changing, and whole industries

are adjusting to a new world in which sophisticated but simple tools

routinely sell for 99 cents or are completely free”

Tech

no

log

y T

ren

ds

What’s Missing?

Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!):

• What significant technology trends do you feel will

have an impact in the short term (< 1 year)

• Tweet (or shout) your ideas!

• Session chair will record ideas

This is an example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group

of experts

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Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important:

• Area 1

• Area 2

This is an example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be

refined and prioritised

Tech

no

log

y T

ren

ds

hashtag: #jibs15fut

Medium-Term Drivers

What trends driving technology adoption in the medium

term (3-5 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel identify?

17

Trends are sorted into three movement-related

categories: (1) fast-moving trends that will realize their

impact in the next 1-2 years and two categories of

slower-moving trends that will realize their impact within

(2) 3-5 or (3) 5+ years.

After summarising technologies important in short-term,

lets look at medium-term drivers of technology adoption

Tech

no

log

y D

rivers

Medium-Term Drivers

Two drivers of technology adoption in medium term (3-5 years to adoption) were identified and prioritised:

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“Once limited to print-based journals and monographic series, scholarly

communications now reside in networked environments and can be

accessed through an expansive array of publishing platforms”.

“Academic & research libraries are gradually embracing the movement

toward openness as the Internet has opened the floodgates of

information and scientific knowledge”.

Tech

no

log

y D

rivers

What’s Missing?

Let’s use the Delphi process:

• What significant drivers of technology adoption

do you feel will have an impact in the medium term

(3-5 years)

• Tweet (or shout) your ideas!

• Session chair will record ideas

This is a further example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a

group of experts

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Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important:

• Area 1

• Area 2

This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can

be refined based on your experiences

Tech

no

log

y D

rivers

hashtag: # jibs15fut

The Challenges

What challenges impeding technology adoption in academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon panel identify?

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These were classed as:

• Solvable Challenges: those that we

understand and know how to solve

• Difficult Challenges: Those that

we understand but for which

solutions are elusive

• Wicked Challenges: Those that are

complex to even define, much less

address

Th

e C

hallen

ges

The Challenges

Two difficult challenges were identified:

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“It is important for these new digital data sets to be preserved alongside

the research derived from them for future use and in longitudinal

studies, but this presents a perpetual challenge for library acquisition

and archiving practices as formats continue to evolve”.

“.. advents in Internet technology are fostering changes in patron

behavior, challenging libraries to either participate in the online

knowledge exchange or risk becoming obsolete over time. ”.

Th

e C

hallen

ges

What’s Missing?

Let’s use the Delphi process:

• What:

Solvable Difficult Wicked

challenges are missing?

• Tweet (or shout) your ideas!

• Session chair will record ideas

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Choose one idea per category:

• Solvable

• Difficult

• Wicked

This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can

be prioritised based on your personal/institutional context

Th

e C

hallen

ges

hashtag: # jibs15fut

Review

NMC Horizon report:

• Provides insights into technological trends,

driver & barriers for library

• Open methodology which caters for experts

highlighting their own particular interests

But:

• It may not be applicable to your specific

context

• It doesn’t address “What do I need to do

next?”

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Revie

w

The Full NMC Horizon Report

NMC Horizon report

for Libraries 2014:

• 50 pages

• 18 topics

6 key trends

6 significant

challenges

6 important

technologies

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2

1

3

Tools for Futurists

Some tools which can help you to predict the future:

• Quick surveys

• Observing recent developments

Not covered in talk (ideas for reinterpreting the present

and providing fresh insights):

• The History Of The Web Backwards, UK Web

Focus blog, 19 Nov 2007

• Reversible, Reverse History and Side-by-Side

Storytelling, OUseful blog, 22 March 2010

25

To

ols

The Future Is Already Here!

Hands up if you have:

Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed

Options: Yes, No or I’m indecisive!

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“20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010

Informal survey

(Twitter & blog post),

March 2012

“The future is already

here - it's just not very

evenly distributed”

What are the implications

of this new ‘platform’?

To

ols

What Did You Notice Recently?

“What did you notice for the first time today (recently)?”

• Can be important for trend spotting

• May signify that something is becoming mainstream

that you hadn’t appreciated before (WiFi on bus, …)

27

Amazon locker (Feb 2013)

Video on underground

(Dec 2008)

To

ols

Thanks to

Tony Hirst

Next steps

Action Brief Statement

Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Next Steps

Having identified future developments of relevance to

the organisation, you will now need to convince senior

management of the potential.

From the Hyperlinked Library MOOC

Planning template from assignment 2:

Action Brief Statement:

Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________

which will ________ because _______.

28Acknowledgements to Michael Stephens and Kyle Jones

This tool was used in a number of Planning for Future workshops

(with voting and prizes)

Pla

nn

ing

Risks

The Need to Explicitly Address Risks

From “Risks and Opportunities Framework for

Exploiting the Social Web” by Kelly & Oppenheim:

• Summarise risks

• Summary risks of not adopting

technology

• Summarise strategies for minimising

(or accepting) risks

• Evidence base

• Document biases and prejudices

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Can you innovate without taking risks?

Pla

nn

ing

Do it For Yourself

Do it for yourself!

• Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop

available under a Creative Commons licence

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Workshop held at SAOIM 2014 (South Africa) & ELAG 2014 (Bath) conferences. See:

• http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

• http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/elag-2014-preparing-for-the-future-workshop/

As described

Institutional planning

Pla

nn

ing

Warning From The Past

Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web

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In 1993 Gopher was the safe bet for an important technological innovation

The Serenity Prayer

• The Serenity Prayer

32Serenity Prayer

Scenario Planning for Addressing the

Unexpected

33

Commercialisation

Devolved ownership

The niche librarian

Everyone’s an IT expert

Possible scenarios

for libraries and the

Cloud

Steady as she goes

Outline challenges and opportunities for libraries

based on an expanded version of these scenarios)

Everyone’s a librarian

Pla

nn

ing

Conclusions

We have:

• Seen examples of technology trends, drivers &

challenges as agreed by NMC Library panel

• Learnt about the NMC’s Delphi processes

• Contributed our perspectives

• Voted on the ideas provided

• Heard about follow-up approaches

Next steps:

• Read the NMC Horizon Report and use it to

inform planning processes

• Implement an institutional event to help prepare

your organisation for the future (run it annually?)

• Invite an independent consult to facilitate 34

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Continue the Discussion

Give your thoughts on a blog post about this session: https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/2015/02/25/

Questions?

Any questions, comments, …?

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This presentation, “Identifying and Preparing for Technological

Developments”, by Brian Kelly, Cetis is licensed under the Creative

Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Licence

Note the licence covers most of the text in this presentation. Quotations

may have other licence conditions.

Images may also have other licence conditions. Where possible links are

provided to the source of images so that licence conditions can be found.

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Slides and further information available at:

https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/jibs-2015/

Accompanying blog post at:

https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/2015/02/25/identifying-

and-preparing-for-technological-developments/

Licence and Additional Resources