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Economic implications
of changing food consumption patterns
Franco Sassi
OECD – Health Division
PREPARATORY TECHNICAL MEETING
FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy
13-15 November 2013
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
OF CHANGING FOOD
CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
Franco Sassi PhD
OECD – Health Division
Rome, 14th November 2013
UN High-level Meeting on NCDs
Leading Risk Factors for HealthAttributable Mortality, 2004
Source: WHO, 2009
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
2004 2015 2030
High income Higer-middle income
Lower-middle income Low income
Deaths from NCDsWorldwide, by Income Group
Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008
Obesity: a Global Epidemic
India
China
Russia
OECD
Brazil
S Africa
UK
Mexico
% of adult population
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
• In Brazil, obesity tripled in men and doubled in women in 30 years; in India, up to 40% are overweight in urban areas
• Diabetes in China is now as common as in the US
• Obesity accounts for less than 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China
The OECD/WHO CDP Model
Physical activityadequate physical act
insuff .physical act
Body mass
indexnormal weight
pre-obesity
obesity
Blood pressurenormal
hypertension
Cholesterol
normal
hypercholesterolemia
Glycaemianormal
diabetes
Cancers
Stroke
Ischemic heart
disease
Fatlow fat intake
medium fat intake
high fat intake
Fibreadequate fibre intake
low fibre intake
Socio-economic statusupper
lower
A Comprehensive & Affordable
Prevention Package
OECD Countries Emerging Economies
Mass media campaigns Mass media campaigns
Compulsory food labelling Compulsory food labelling
Industry self-regulation of food advertising to children
Government regulation of food advertising to children
Physician-dietician counselling Fiscal measures
School-based interventions
Canada Europe Brazil China
24.03 $/cap 22.45 $/cap 0.40 $/cap 0.20 $/cap
What Can Prevention Achieve?
Prevention Keeps HealthyYears of Life Free of NCDs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50
Mil
lio
n l
ife
yea
rs
Time (years)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50
Mil
lio
n l
ife
yea
rs
Time (years)
Europe China Brazil Canada
Cancers (lung, colorectal, breast) Cardiovascular diseases
An Affordable Prevention Package
0
1
2
3
4
5
India China Brazil South Africa RussianFederation
Mexico
US
$ p
er
he
ad
High blood pressure & cholesterol Unhealthy diet and physical inactivity
Alcohol use Tobacco use
4.5
1.2
0.4
Prevention is a Good InvestmentImpact on Health Expenditure
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
00 10 20 30 40 50
$ /
ca
pit
a
Time (years)
Europe
Canada
Brazil
China
% Decrease Required in Fat Consumption
COUNTRIES % decrease on average (2012-2021)
Argentina -0.9
Australia -1.4
Brazil -0.9
Canada -1.2
Chile -0.9
China -0.8
European Union -1.1
India -0.7
Japan -0.8
Korea -0.8
Mexico -1.4
New Zealand -1.4
Russian Federation -0.8
United States -1.4
Scenario 1 Results
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
12012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Atlantic beef world price %
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cheese world price% difference
-3
-2
-1
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Vegetable oil world price% difference
-3
-2
-1
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Coarse grains world price% difference
SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed
to meet WHO guidelines
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0EU NZL AUS USA BRA RUS ARG MEX CHN
Reductions to meet 10% calorie intake
Scenario2 Results
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 %
Consumption Production
Bovine consumption and production (kt)
USA
BRA
E27
CHN
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Pacific beef and veal price (USD/t)
baseline
scenario
Scenario2 Results
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Vegetable oil world price
baseline
scenario
Scenario2 Results
Key Policy Implications
• Obesity and NCDs are global economic issues
• Food and nutrition policies must be part of a comprehensive intersectoral prevention strategy
• Potential for major health, health expenditure and productivity gains
• Limited effects on world markets imply such changes should be economically sustainable over the medium and long term