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Integrated Technical Analysis by Ian Copsey FX-Strategy.com Jun-2013
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Integrated Technical Integrated Technical AnalysisAnalysis
A guide to strengthening A guide to strengthening technical signalstechnical signals
Chartpoint Issue #1Chartpoint Issue #1
February 2002February 2002 It would appear therefore, that a base is forming It would appear therefore, that a base is forming
in the weekly chart around the inner support line. in the weekly chart around the inner support line. Note also that the upper resistance band rests Note also that the upper resistance band rests around the strategic 0.5700 pivot area. Looking around the strategic 0.5700 pivot area. Looking further out, after achieving the 0.5700 pivot, the further out, after achieving the 0.5700 pivot, the daily cyclic picture suggests a low in September. daily cyclic picture suggests a low in September. From here the move up through the 0.5700 area From here the move up through the 0.5700 area should commence with the next target around should commence with the next target around 0.6550 looking possible by the end of 2003 at the 0.6550 looking possible by the end of 2003 at the latest. It may be reached even earlier with a latest. It may be reached even earlier with a breach of 0.6550 implying immediately higher breach of 0.6550 implying immediately higher prices.prices.
FX-Strategy UpdateFX-Strategy Update
1818thth June 2003 June 2003 Away from our usual analysis we note that Away from our usual analysis we note that
the Aussie Dollar is also reaching crucial the Aussie Dollar is also reaching crucial resistance at 0.6725-45 which we feel is a resistance at 0.6725-45 which we feel is a level that should hold for 12-18 months. level that should hold for 12-18 months.
The risk to this scenario will be a direct The risk to this scenario will be a direct move higher that quickly clears the 0.6745-move higher that quickly clears the 0.6745-0.6850 area in which case follow-through 0.6850 area in which case follow-through higher would be implied. Next resistance is higher would be implied. Next resistance is around the 0.7100 - 0.7250 area.around the 0.7100 - 0.7250 area.
Market FactorsMarket Factors
PricePrice– TrendingTrending– Non-trendingNon-trending– DirectionDirection
MomentumMomentum– StrongStrong– WeakWeak
TimeTime– CyclesCycles
Price ForecastingPrice Forecasting
Support and ResistanceSupport and Resistance TrendTrend Retracement TargetsRetracement Targets Projection TargetsProjection Targets Timing Trend ReversalsTiming Trend Reversals
Technical ToolsTechnical Tools
Elliott WaveElliott Wave -- StructureStructure CyclesCycles -- TimingTiming IndicatorsIndicators -- TrendTrend
-- MomentumMomentum
(Consolidation)(Consolidation)
Elliott WaveElliott Wave
StructureStructure TrendsTrends
– Impulsive, numbered wavesImpulsive, numbered waves– Corrective, lettered wavesCorrective, lettered waves
Fibonacci & wave relationshipsFibonacci & wave relationships Elliott GuidelinesElliott Guidelines
Impulsive WavesImpulsive Waves
StandardStandard ExtendedExtended
1
2
3
4
5
(1)
(2)
1
2
3
4
(3) (3) 55
(4)
(5)
Impulsive WavesImpulsive Waves
Corrective WavesCorrective Waves
Zig-ZagZig-Zag Double ZigZag Double ZigZag Triple Three Triple Three
(A)
(B)
(C)
(A)
(B)
(C)
(X)
(A)
(B)
(C)
Corrective WavesCorrective Waves
FibonacciFibonacci
Fibonacci SequenceFibonacci Sequence0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 1440, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 Fibonacci RatiosFibonacci Ratios144144 = 1.618= 1.618 8989 = 1.618 = 1.618 5555 = 1.618 = 1.618
8989 5555 3434
8989 = 0.618= 0.618 5555 = 0.6180 = 0.6180 3434 = = 0.6180.618
144144 8989 5555
Also:Also:0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764, 1.00, 1.382, 1.618, 2.6180.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764, 1.00, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618
Fibonacci and Elliott Fibonacci and Elliott WaveWaveWave 2 = Wave 1 x 0.236, 0.382, Wave 2 = Wave 1 x 0.236, 0.382, 0.50, 0.6180.50, 0.618 or 0.764 or 0.764
Wave 3 = Wave 1 x Wave 3 = Wave 1 x 1.618, 2.6181.618, 2.618 or 4.236 or 4.236
Wave 4 = Wave 3 x 0.236 or Wave 4 = Wave 3 x 0.236 or 0.3820.382
Wave 5 = (Wave 1 -> Wave 3) x 0.236, 0.382, Wave 5 = (Wave 1 -> Wave 3) x 0.236, 0.382, 0.6180.618, , 0.7640.764
Wave B = Wave A x 0.236, 0.382, Wave B = Wave A x 0.236, 0.382, 0.50, 0.6180.50, 0.618, 0.764, 0.764
Wave C = Wave A x 0.618, 0.764, Wave C = Wave A x 0.618, 0.764, 1.001.00, 1.382, , 1.382, 1.618, 1.618, 2.6182.618
Elliott’s RulesElliott’s Rules
Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1of wave 1
Wave 3 is never the shortest of the Wave 3 is never the shortest of the impulsive wavesimpulsive waves
The extremes of wave 1 and Wave 4 The extremes of wave 1 and Wave 4 will never overlap in a 5 wave structurewill never overlap in a 5 wave structure
Elliott’s GuidelinesElliott’s Guidelines
AlternationAlternation– If Wave 2 is simple, wave 4 is likely to be If Wave 2 is simple, wave 4 is likely to be
complexcomplex
Wave 4 and Wave BWave 4 and Wave B– The extremes of Wave 4 and Wave B are likely to The extremes of Wave 4 and Wave B are likely to
provide support/resistance on a retestprovide support/resistance on a retest
Correction after Wave 5Correction after Wave 5– Following an extended wave 5 the first correction will Following an extended wave 5 the first correction will
normally move to the extreme of the wave (ii) of normally move to the extreme of the wave (ii) of Wave 5Wave 5
Applying FibonacciApplying Fibonacci
Support & Resistance ~ Support & Resistance ~ TrendsTrends
Support & ResistanceSupport & Resistance
Support & ResistanceSupport & Resistance
Time CyclesTime Cycles
Time CyclesTime Cycles
SynchronizationSynchronization HarmonizationHarmonization ProportionalityProportionality SummationSummation
Time CyclesTime Cycles
Applying CyclesApplying Cycles
February 2002February 2002 It would appear therefore, that a base is forming It would appear therefore, that a base is forming
in the weekly chart around the inner support line. in the weekly chart around the inner support line. Note also that the upper resistance band rests Note also that the upper resistance band rests around the strategic 0.5700 pivot area. Looking around the strategic 0.5700 pivot area. Looking further out, after achieving the 0.5700 pivot, the further out, after achieving the 0.5700 pivot, the daily cyclic picture suggests a low in daily cyclic picture suggests a low in SeptemberSeptember. . From here the move up through the From here the move up through the 0.57000.5700 area area should commence with the next target around should commence with the next target around 0.65500.6550 looking possible by the end of 2003 at the looking possible by the end of 2003 at the latest. It may be reached even earlier with a latest. It may be reached even earlier with a breach of 0.6550 implying immediately higher breach of 0.6550 implying immediately higher prices. prices.
Applying CyclesApplying Cycles
Technical IndicatorsTechnical Indicators
TrendingTrending– ADXADX– Moving AveragesMoving Averages
ConsolidationConsolidation– RSIRSI– StochasticsStochastics
Support & ResistanceSupport & Resistance– Bollinger BandsBollinger Bands– MCT Adaptive Moving Average BandsMCT Adaptive Moving Average Bands
Technical IndicatorsTechnical Indicators
Technical IndicatorsTechnical Indicators
IntegrationIntegration
IntegrationIntegration
Aussie DollarAussie Dollar
1818thth June 2003 June 2003 Away from our usual analysis we note that Away from our usual analysis we note that
the Aussie Dollar is also reaching crucial the Aussie Dollar is also reaching crucial resistance at 0.6725-45 which we feel is a resistance at 0.6725-45 which we feel is a level that should hold for 12-18 months. level that should hold for 12-18 months.
The risk to this scenario will be a direct The risk to this scenario will be a direct move higher that quickly clears the 0.6745-move higher that quickly clears the 0.6745-0.6850 area in which case follow-through 0.6850 area in which case follow-through higher would be implied. Next resistance is higher would be implied. Next resistance is around the 0.7100 - 0.7250 area.around the 0.7100 - 0.7250 area.
Aussie DollarAussie Dollar
Aussie DollarAussie Dollar
Dollar-YenDollar-Yen
Dollar-YenDollar-Yen
Euro - DollarEuro - Dollar
Euro - DollarEuro - Dollar
Dollar - SwissDollar - Swiss
Dollar - SwissDollar - Swiss
CableCable
CableCable
Daily AnalysisDaily Analysis
http://www.fx-strategy.com/reports/commentarhttp://www.fx-strategy.com/reports/commentary.htmly.html
Updates once each dayUpdates once each day Covers 4 majorsCovers 4 majors
– USDJPYUSDJPY– USDCHFUSDCHF– EURUSDEURUSD– GBPUSD GBPUSD