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Dr. Pat Guinan presented "Historical & Recent Climate Trends in Missouri" during the 2011 Marketing Seminars held throughout Missouri. FCS Financial hosted all of the seminars.
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Historical and Recent Climate Trends in Missouri & Weather Resources
Pat Guinan Extension/State Climatologist
FCS Financial Seminars February 17-25, 2011
U.S. National Weather ServiceCooperative Weather Station Network
“The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”
28 Pioneer Stations (still active)
NWS Cooperative Network in Missouri
What have been the annual temperature trends for Missouri?
Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2010)
Long-term average: 54.6°F5 yr. running mean
Warm PeriodCool Period
1921 193119381946
1954
18951904
19171924 1979
What have been the seasonal temperature trends for Missouri?
Missouri Average Winter Temperature (Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2010*)
*The winter of 2010 is defined as Dec 2009 and Jan, Feb 2010
Long-term average: 32.4°F1931-32
1904-05 1917-18 1935-36Warm PeriodCool Period
1977-78 1978-79
’91-92 ’97-98’01-02
’99-00
2009-10 winter was coldest in 28 years and current 2010-11 winter is even colder!!
5 yr. running mean
Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2010)
Long-term average: 54.2°F
193819461977 1991
2007
1924 19471960
19831984
Warm PeriodCool Period
5 yr. running mean
Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)
2010 WAS HOTTEST SUMMER IN 30 YEARS FOR MISSOURI!!
Long-term average: 75.6°F
7th hottest1901
193419361954 1980
19151927 1950 1992 2004
Warm PeriodCool Period
2010 WAS ALSO AN UNCOMFORTABLE SUMMER…
Average Summer Dewpoint Temperature (°F) for Columbia, MO Jun-Jul-Aug 2010
20101993 1995
1976
19751967
Columbia, MO Average Summer Maximum Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)
Columbia, MO Average Summer Minimum Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)
6th warmest
Columbia, Missouri No. of Days When the Temperature Was ≥ 100°F
(1890-2010)
1901
1936
1954
1934
1980
More triple-digit heat in 1936 than in the past 23 years in Columbia!!
Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2010)
1931
1938
1963
19711998
1896 1951
1976
19931996
Warm PeriodCool Period
5 yr. running mean
Long-term average: 56.5°F
What about recent temperature trends for
Missouri?
Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average* (Jan 2004 – Jan 2011)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1st warmest January
4th warmest March Warming up
in 2010
5th coolest summer
Easter Freeze
Cool 2-yr period
What have been the annual precipitation trends for Missouri?
Missouri Annual Average Precipitation (1895-2010)
Long-term average: 41.12” 5 yr. running mean
Wet PeriodDry Period
1898 1927 1973 1993 2008
1901 1953
1963 1976 1980
#1
#8
1927-29 total: 148.68 in. (+25.32”)
2008-10 total: 153.30 in. (+29.94”)
What have been the seasonal precipitation trends for Missouri?
Missouri Average Winter Precipitation (Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2010*)
*The winter of 2010 is defined as Dec 2009 and Jan, Feb 2010Long-term average: 6.58”
1915-161936-37
1948-491949-50
1984-85
1919-201963-64 1969-70 1975-76
1962-63Wet PeriodDry Period
5 yr. running mean
Missouri Average Spring Precipitation (Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2010)
Long-term average: 12.12”
1898
Dry PeriodWet Period
19271945
19732008
19301932 1934 1936
1971
5 yr. running mean
Missouri Average Summer Precipitation (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)
Long-term average: 12.19”5 yr. running mean
1915 1928 1951 1981 1993
1901 1913
1936 19531983
Wet PeriodDry Period
Missouri Average Autumn Precipitation (Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2010)
1926
1941
198419861993
Long-term average: 10.23”
Wet PeriodDry Period
5 yr. running mean
18971904 195019531956
Have precipitation events become more frequent in
Missouri?
Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 0.01 in Missouri 1895-2009
19731951 199320081945
10 yr. running mean
19761953 19631936 1988
What are trends of heavy and extreme
precipitation events in Missouri?
Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 1 inch in Missouri 1895-2009
Data Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center
19272008
2009
19931973 1985
10 yr. running mean1895-1952: 17,331 events 1953-2009: 17,505 events
Average: 303 events
All-time 24-hour precipitation records (inches)
6.55” 7/7/1898
6.61” 9/2/1918
6.27” 11/24/1987
5.80” 7/29/1910
7.67” 7/25/2008
6.60” 1/2/18979.10”
7/3/1976
8.82” 9/12/1977
8.78” 8/16/1946
6.78” 7/4/1976
9.21” 3/19/2008
7.50” 12/20/1895
7.00” 12/16/1895
12.25” 7/10/1922
5.37” 8/12/1993
10.22” 7/10/1922
5.87” 4/21/1973
6.17” 9/14/1998
6.52” 11/16/1928
7.34” 6/20/1928
9.00” 6/29/1957
6.21” 10/18/1905
10.65” 4/11/1994
9.10” 10/3/1986 7.90”
7/26/1998
11.38” 9/23/2006
8.24” 3/19/2008
6.60” 9/13/1961
No. of Decade Records
1895-99 4 1900-09 1 1910-19 2 1920-29 4 1930-39 0 1940-49 1 1950-59 1 1960-69 1 1970-79 4 1980-89 2 1990-99 4 2000-09 4
Half have occurred since the 1970’s
18.18” 7/20/1965
St. Louis, Missouri Annual Precipitation (in.) (1837-2010) Unofficial: 1837-1869
Official: 1870-2010
10 yr. running mean1982 2008
18481858
1859
1871 Wet PeriodDry Period
193019401953 1976
Year
What about recent precipitation trends for
Missouri?
Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* (Jan 2004 – Jan 2011)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1st Wettest Year on Record
8th Wettest Year on Record
Total Precipitation Departure from Mean in inches Jan 2008 to Dec 2010
Highest above normal departures in the United States!!
Departure from Normal Precipitation (in) Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2010
Extreme wetness
to Extreme drought
Summary
•Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in 1998; 10 out of the past 13 years have been above normal. The 1930’s ranks as the warmest decade on record for Missouri.
•Seasonally, Missouri winters have experienced the greatest warming trend (15 out of the past 22 winters (~ 68%) have been above normal and 4 out of the 5 warmest winters on record have occurred since 1991).
Missouri Climate Trends
•Following winter, the biggest seasonal warming trend in Missouri has been during the spring period (Mar-Apr-May); there have been only two cooler than normal springs since 1998.
•The median last spring frost date in Missouri has occurred about 2-7 days earlier over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average.
SummaryMissouri Climate Trends
•Recent temperature trend signals during the summer and autumn have been weak. Missouri has not witnessed an exceptionally hot summer in 30 years.
•The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average.
•Beginning in the early 1980’s, and since 1895, an unprecedented wet period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 20 out of 30 years (~67%) have had above normal precipitation.
•Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably in winter where 20 out the past 29 winters recorded above normal precipitation (~69%).
SummaryMissouri Climate Trends
• 28 pioneer weather stations have been reporting daily precipitation for 115 years, or since 1895; half of these stations have broken all-time 24-hour precipitation records since 1973 (over the past 37 years).
•Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an above normal trend in heavy (≥ 1”) and extreme (≥ 3”) precipitation events compared to the long-term average.
•Since 1970, 68% of the years, or 27 out of 40 years, have experienced an above normal number of days with measurable precipitation events (≥ 0.01”) in Missouri compared to the long-term average.
www.climate.missouri.edu
Extension Commercial Agriculture Automated Weather Station Network
agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm
Real-time(Updates every 5 minutes)
One new station added in 2010 for a total of 30 in the network.
www.cocorahs.org
CoCoRaHS
Jan 2011 277/day Dec 2010 280/day Nov 2010 297/day Oct 2010 294/day Sep 2010 297/day Aug 2010 290/day
Missouri
www.cocorahs.org
September 2, 2010
MO-CR-406.30
6.936.608.007.93
7.96 10.217.598.226.99
2.01
4.526.00
5.854.58 2.01
1.290.14
0.84
0.75
December 31, 2010
CoCoRaHS Impacts and Application:
•Drought Assessment
•Preventive Planting policies•River Forecast Centers- model application
•Flash Flood Assessment
•Lagoon Management
The CoCoRaHS network has been operational in Missouri for almost 5 years and has been a valuable resource. Currently, nearly 300 observers report daily in Missouri and all 114 counties in the state have at least one observer. Outcomes associated with having a viable, online real-time network of precipitation observing in Missouri include:
Departure From Normal Temperature (°F) December 1, 2010 to February 12, 2011
Midwestern Regional Climate Center
Total Snowfall (inches) December 1, 2010 to February 14, 2011
5-15 in.
15-25 in.25-35 in.
35-45 in.
1) 54.9 1978 2) 46.2 1912 3) 44.0 1960 4) 43.0 2011*5) 40.8 1906 6) 40.4 1979 7) 38.1 1974 8) 38.1 1900 9) 36.6 1905 10) 35.0 1977
COLUMBIA, MO Snowfall (in.)
Years: 1890-2011
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Climate Prediction Center
6-10 day temperature outlook
Issued: Feb 13, 2011 Valid: Feb 19-23, 2011
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Climate Prediction Center
6-10 day precipitationoutlook
Issued: Feb 13, 2011 Valid: Feb 19-23, 2011
Moderate to Strong La Niña continues…
Typical Winter Weather Anomalies and Atmospheric Circulation During Moderate to Strong La Niña
Issued: Jan 20, 2011 Climate Prediction Center
Temperature Outlook for
Feb-Mar-Apr
Issued: Jan 20, 2011 Climate Prediction Center
Precipitation Outlook for
Feb-Mar-Apr
agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htm
agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htm
Weather Resources on the Internet
River Information Resources for Missouri