© 2007 Verner Wheelock Associates Limited

The Great Weight Loss Scam

Verner Wheelock

Healthy Weight, Healthy Lives:

A Cross-Government Strategy for England (March 08)

“Britain is in the grip of an epidemic. Almost 2/3 of adults and 1/3 of children are either overweight or obese……These figures will rise to almost 9 in 10 adults and 2/3 of children by 2050.”

“We are facing a public health problem that the experts have told us is comparable with climate change in both its scale and complexity”

House of Commons Health Committee Report

May 2004“On some predictions, today’s generation of children will be the first for over a century for whom life expectancy falls”

“We estimate the economic costs of obesity at £3.3 – 3.7 billion per year and obesity plus overweight at £6.6 – 6.7 billion.”

House of Commons Committee of Public Accounts on Child Obesity

December 2006

“Obesity is a causal factor in a number of chronic diseases….. .….it reduces life expectancy by an average of 9 years”

Life Expectancy - UK

Causes of DeathEngland and Wales

Age-standardised mortality rates for selected broad disease groups, 1911-2003, England & Wales

CONFLICT

Obesity is increasing

Health is improving

Body Mass Index (BMI)

WEIGHT, kg

(HEIGHT, m)²

BMI is used as an index of obesity

Categories

Description BMIUnderweight < 18.5Normal 18.5 – 25Overweight 25 – 30Obese (Class I) 30 – 35Obese (Class II) >35

Examples of BMI

Height\Weight 5’0” 5’6” 6’0”

8st 22 18.1 15.2

10st 27.4 22.7 19.1

12st 32.9 27.2 22.9

14st 38.4 31.7 26.7

16st 43.9 36.3 30.5

BMI - England

Men Women1993 25.9 25.71994 26.0 25.81995 26.1 25.91996 26.3 261997 26.5 26.21998 26.5 26.41999 26.5 26.42000 26.8 26.62001 27.0 26.72002 26.9 26.72003 26.9 26.72004 27.1 26.82005 26.9 26.92006 27.2 26.82007 27.1 26.8Source:

Health Survey, England 2007

CDC Study USARelative Risks

All

BMI 25 – 59 yrs 60-69 yrs >70 yrs< 18.5 1.38 2.3 1.69

18.5 – 25 1.00 1.00 1.00

25 – 30 0.83 0.95 0.91

30 – 35 1.20 1.13 1.03

>35 1.83 1.63 1.17

CDC Study USARelative RisksNever Smoked

BMI 25 – 59 yrs 60-69 yrs >70 yrs< 18.5 1.25 2.97 1.50

18.5 – 25 1.00 1.00 1.00

25 – 30 0.66 0.81 0.90

30 – 35 0.77 1.21 1.13

>35 1.25 2.30 1.12

CDC Study, USAExcess Deaths

Description BMI NHANES 11971 – 75

NHANES 21976 – 1980

NHANES 31988 - 1994

Underweight < 18.5 41,930 19,618 38,456

Normal 18.5 – 25 0 0 0

Overweight 25 – 30 -14,354 -171,945 -99,979

Obese (Class I) 30 – 35 112,310 7840 -14865

Obese (Class II) >35 186,498 21,777 57,515

Relationship between BMI and excess deaths (1,000s)

BMI

Cause of death

Underweight

≤ 18.5

Normal

18.5 – 25

Overweight

25 – 30

Obese

≥ 30

Coronary heart disease +3 0 -12 +6

Other cardiovascular +8 0 -5 +36

Lung cancer 0 0 -10 -7

Cancer considered obesity related 0 0 -3 +20

All other cancers +3 0 +3 +2

Diabetes/Kidney disease 0 0 +15 +34

Chronic respiratory +16 0 -30 -6

Acute respiratory/infectious +8 0 -8 --3

Injury +2 0 -32 -13

Other causes +6 0 -52 13

Total +46 0 -137 +96

08/04/23

Actual Causes of Death in US, 2000

Canada 2009

BMI Relative Risk< 18.5 1.73

18.5 – 25 1.0025 – 30 0.8330 – 35 0.95

>35 1.36

FITNESS AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY

FITNESS LEVEL Men Women

All-cause mortality per 10,000 person years

1. (low) 64.0 39.5

2. 25.5 20.5

3. 27.1 12.2

4. 21.7 6.5

5.(high) 18.6 8.5

• 13,344 men and women aged about 40• 283 deaths over 8 years

AGE, FITNESS AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY

Age Unfit/unfit Unfit/fit Fit/fit

All-cause mortality per 10,000 man years

20-39 101.4 22.6 10.2

40-49 108.6 73.0 51.0

50-59 470.3 128.7 62.1

60+ 825.6 414.1 199.4

• 9777 men 223 deaths• 4.9 years between fitness examinations• 5.1 years follow-up

BMI, FITNESS AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY

BMI Fit Unfit

Mortality, relative rates

Normal (18.5-24.9) 1.2 4.9

Overweight (25.0-29.9) 1.2 2.7

Obese 1 (30.0-34.9) 1.6 2.5

Obese 2 (>35.0) 1.2 4.8

• 2603 adults in their 60s

BODY FAT AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY

BODY FAT Fit Unfit

Mortality, relative rates

LEAN <16.7% body fat 1.0 2.07

NORMAL 16.7-25.0% body fat 0.8 1.62

OBESE>25.0% body fat 0.92 1.90

• 21.925 men aged 30-83 years• 429 deaths

Quotations on Obesity and Mortality

"The idea has been greatly oversold that the risk of dying prematurely or of having a heart attack is directly related to relative body weight."— University of Minnesota Professor Emeritus Ancel Keys, W.O. Atwater Memorial Lecture, 1980

Quotations on Obesity and Mortality

"Neither coronary heart disease nor cancer, the two leading causes of death, was significantly associated with BMI."— Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 1990

Quotations on Obesity and Mortality

"The establishment clings to the belief that weight causes disease and death just as people once insisted that the world was flat."

— Dr. Susan Wooley, Professor Emerita, University of Cincinnati, 1998

Final Thoughts

• For most people weight is irrelevant to health• The key to good health is reasonable physical

fitness• It is time for a complete re-think on public

health policy

08/04/23