From Roller Coasters to Rocket Ships:Lessons from Past Successes in African

Agriculture

Steven Haggblade, Michigan State UniversityIFPRI Policy Seminar

June 24, 2010

Roller Coasters or Rocket Ships?

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1961

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Pro

duct

ion

('000

tons

)

IFPRI Review of Successes in African Agriculture

1. Methods2. Lessons: What has to happen?3. How?

1. Methods

• Inventory “successes”: expert survey

• Select informative cases: advisory panel

• Comparative case studies: case study teams

• Generalize: analytical teams plus stakeholder workshops

Case Studies Reviewed

• Maize: Kenya, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe

• Cotton: Mali

• Cassava: Nigeria, Ghana, Malawi, Zambia

• Horticultural exports: Kenya, Ivory Coast

• Dairy: Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda

• Conservation farming: Burkina, Zambia

• Improved fallows: Kenya, Zambia

Categorizing the Case Studies

Motors of change Case studies

Comprehensive public research, input and marketing package

Maize

Cotton

Dairy

Public R&D Cassava

Private-led marketing Export horticulture

Research and extension: private and public

Conservation farming

Improved fallows

Plan of Attack

1. Methods2. What has to happen?3. How?

2. What has to happen?

• Improved productivity

• Adequate incentives

The Dynamics of Agricultural Change

Decision-making Environment Actions Results(DE) (A) (R)

c

Incentives

Farm households

Income

SustainabilityEquity

Public, collective,

firm

Natural shocksNature, rest of world

Pests

Production Possibilities

The Dynamics of Agricultural Change

Decision-making Environment Actions Results(DE) (A) (R)

c

Incentives

Farm households

Income

SustainabilityEquity

Public, collective,

firm

Natural shocksNature, rest of world

Pests

Production Possibilities

Improved productivity: technology

Improved productivity: management

Cotton MaizeConventional plowing 820 1,350Conservation farming basins 1,280 3,000Sources of difference

higher input use 90 500early planting* 40 400water harvesting in basins* 330 750total difference 460 1,650

Yield (kg/ha)

Improved productivity: marketing0

10

00

20

00

30

00

40

00

00

0 K

wa

ch

a/t

on

ne

(re

al: c

pi-

20

05

=1

00

)

Year/Month

Wholesale grain Breakfast meal

Linear-trend Linear-trend

Price trends

05

00

10

00

15

00

20

00

25

00

00

0 K

wa

ch

a/t

on

ne

(re

al: c

pi-

20

05

=1

00

)

Year/Month

Vertical margin

Linear-trend

Wholesale-retail margins

The Dynamics of Agricultural Change

Decision-making Environment Actions Results(DE) (A) (R)

c

Incentives

Farm households

Income

SustainabilityEquity

Public, collective,

firm

Natural shocksNature, rest of world

Pests

Production Possibilities

The Dynamics of Agricultural Change

Decision-making Environment Actions Results(DE) (A) (R)

c

Incentives

Farm households

Income

SustainabilityEquity

Public, collective,

firm

Natural shocksNature, rest of world

Pests

Production Possibilities

Adequate incentives: Cassava Nigeria

Nigerian Cassava Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

pro

du

ctio

n (

mil

lio

n t

on

s)

Adequate incentives: growing markets

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99

Val

ue

of

exp

ort

s (U

S$

mill

ion

)

Other vegetables

Other proc. vegetables

Other fresh vegetables

Green beans

Other fruit

Other fresh tropical fruit

Mangoes

Pineapple juice (SS)

Pineapples, canned

Canned pineapples

Pineapple juice SS)

Green beans

Other fresh vegetables

The Dynamics of Agricultural Change

Decision-making Environment Actions Results(DE) (A) (R)

c

Incentives

Farm households

Income

SustainabilityEquity

Public, collective,

firm

Natural shocksNature, rest of world

Pests

Production Possibilities

Plan of Attack

1. Methods2. What has to happen?3. How?

3. How?

• Public goods plus private incentives

• Patience and perseverance

• Think regionally

Public vs private: many options are possible

Public Private Public and private

Public private

Technology

• Cassava

• Maize

• Cotton

• Conserv. farming

• Improved fallows

• Dairy

Marketing

• Horticulture

• Cassava

• Dairy • Maize

• Cotton

Key public goods

• Research– Open pollinating varieties– Vegetatively propagated crops– Orphan crops

• Disease control

• Infrastructure

• Policies

Key public goods

• Research– Open pollinating varieties– Vegetatively propagated crops– Orphan crops

• Disease control

• Infrastructure

• Policies

The Dynamics of Agricultural Change

Decision-making Environment Actions Results(DE) (A) (R)

c

Incentives

Farm households

Income

SustainabilityEquity

Public, collective,

firm

Natural shocksNature, rest of world

Pests

Production Possibilities

The Dynamics of Agricultural Change

Decision-making Environment Actions Results(DE) (A) (R)

c

Incentives

Farm households

Income

SustainabilityEquity

Public, collective,

firm

Natural shocksNature, rest of world

Pests

Production Possibilities

This disease killed 90% of Africa’s cattle.

Within a decade, this pest devastated food production across 20 countries in Africa.

3. How?

• Public goods plus private incentives

• Patience and perseverance

• Think regionally

Patience and perseverance

• Dairy: 80 years

• SR52: 28 years

• TMS cassava: 18 years + 7 years

Patience and perseverance

• Dairy: 80 years

• SR52: 28 years

• TMS cassava: 18 years + 7 years

SLOW MAGIC

Pests and diseases constantly mutate

Mutating pests and disease require sustained research

Cassava Production in Uganda (index 1981=100)

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.00

FAO

NARO

3. How?

• Public goods plus private incentives

• Patience and perseverance

• Think regionally

Think regionally: technology

• Cotton

• Maize

• Cassava

• Dairy

• Improved fallows

• Conservation farming

Think regionally: trade

Think regionally: trade

Conclusions

• Success is possible

• What has to happen?– Improved productivity– Adequate incentives

• How– Public goods plus private incentives– Patience and perseverance– Think regionally

Pop Quiz bonus points