Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis of Third Grade Reading Proficiency in

Mississippi

Serita Theresa Wheeler

Mississippi State University

Introduction• Third grade is the year students begin to use reading for more

complex learning, or the year when children shift from learning to read to reading to learn.

• Third grade reading proficiency is the most predictive indicator of academic and career success.

• Failure to achieve third grade reading proficiency is a significant predictor of dropping out and delayed high school completion as well as criminogenic behavior.

Reading ProficiencyReading Proficiently is defined by the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) as:

“[Representing] solid academic performance for each grade assessed. Students reaching this level have demonstrated competency over challenging subject matter, including subject-matter knowledge, application of such knowledge to real world situations, and analytical skills appropriate to the subject matter.”

-National Assessment Governing Board, 1995

Currently proficiency measures vary by state. No state’s proficiency level reaches NAEP’s proficiency level (238). Massachusetts has the highest and closest to NAEP standard (232), while Mississippi has the least rigorous literacy standard (163).

National Reading Proficiency

• Nationally, only 33% of fourth grade students read proficiently, when assessed in 2009 (The Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2010).

• For low income students the outcomes are even worse, with racial and ethnic disparities amplifying the effects. Almost all low-income Black, Hispanic, and Native American students (89%,

87%, and 85%) and An overwhelming majority of low-income White and Asian students (76% and

70%) score at the below-proficient reading achievement level (Hernandez, 2012).

Third Grade Literacy PoliciesThird Grade Literacy Policies focus on 3 objectives:

• Early identification of reading deficiencies 36 states and the District of Columbia have policies in place to assess reading

proficiency identify students with reading deficiencies

• Intervention as close to the point of need and identification as possible 33 States and the District of Columbia require interventions to address

reading deficiencies.

• Retention 16 states and the District of Columbia require retention of third graders

unable to achieve grade-level proficiency, three of these permit retention based on the recommendation of a teacher, parent, or superintendent.

*Parents of students in 24 states and the District of Columbia will be notified of students’ reading need, interventions to address the need, and the possibility of retention

Mississippi’s Literacy Promotion Act• Currently, 49.1% of students read below the proficient achievement level with

17.1% reading at the minimal level and 31.6% reading at the basic level (Mississippi Department of Education, 2015).

• In 2013 Mississippi Senate Bill 2347 was signed into law.

• If a K - 3 student has been identified with a substantial deficit in reading, the teacher will immediately, and with each quarterly progress report, notify parents or legal guardians of the following in writing:

• Determination of a substantial deficit in reading

• Description of student services and supports presently provided

• Description of proposed supplemental instruction and support to remediate the student’s deficit areas

• Strategies for parents to use to help students at home

• Notification that student will not be promoted to 4th grade if reading deficiency can not be remediated by the end of 3rd grade

Third Grade Reading Gate• District must provide “intensive reading instruction” as well as

implement an intervention in students that substantial reading deficiencies (S.2347, 2013).

• Districts will also be required to notify parents of students’ reading progress and retain students failing to read at grade level by third grade (S. 2347, 2013).

• In February 2015, the senate postponed implementation of the retention policy over concerns that both funding and resources are not sufficient for the pending accountability regime (Pender, 2015)

Poverty in Mississippi

• Poverty, student outcomes, and race cannot be evaluated separately.

• Mississippi has the highest child poverty rate in the United States and ranks 49th in child well-being

• 35% of Children in Mississippi live in poverty; and 28% of all children in Mississippi live in high-poverty areas, both risk factors for low reading achievement (Hernandez, 2012; McGraw, 2013; Mississippi KIDS COUNT, 2015).

• Poverty in Mississippi is geographically distributed.

• In Mississippi, the poorest districts also have the highest concentration of African American students. For instance, Jefferson County School District is over 90% African American and

is located in the second least developed county in the United States (Porter & Purser, 2008).

Geographic Distribution of Poor and African American Students

Geographies of Opportunity and Exclusion• Tate (2008)

• Uses GIS to show how developers in St. Louis and Dallas systematically isolate non-white students from benefits of telecommunications and biotechnology industries.

• Lichter and Parisi (2008)

• Rural African Americans are more isolated and African Americans living in Metro areas. 75 percent of low-income rural African Americans live in high poverty areas, segregated from affluent communities and even poor whites.

Public Education in Mississippi• In Mississippi, Public Education is not the great equalizer. (It also no

longer the great equalizer in the rest of America).

• Public Education serves as a means to reinforce inequality. This, like others is a national trend that is amplified in Mississippi because this

state has the greatest proportion of African Americans. 50% of African Americans live in the south where state legislatures have been

hostile toward public education since desegregation.

• The majority of Mississippi voters are content with the underfunding of Mississippi Public Education“Simply creating a complicated program of many moving parts does nothing to show the taxpayer or voter that in fact “full funding” is necessary for adequate education.”

-Clarion Ledger Editorial January 2015

Public Education in Mississippi• After desegregation white enrollment declined, particularly in areas

where there were more African Americans. Currently African Americans are 38% of the population, but are about half of

the students enrolled in public school are African American

• This lead to a disinvestment in public education. (This disinvestment has occurred nationally, but its origins are in the South)

• MAEP was established to equalize budgets. It has only been fully funded twice.

• Recently Mississippi made the deepest cuts to education funding of all states.

Public Education in Mississippi• After desegregation white enrollment declined, particularly in areas

where there were more African Americans. Current African Americans are 38% of the population, but are about half of

the students enrolled in public school are African American

• This lead to a disinvestment in public education. (This disinvestment has occurred nationally, but its origins are in the South)

• MAEP was established to equalize budgets. It has only been fully funded twice.

• Recently Mississippi made the deepest cuts to education funding of all states.

Walter Siller’s Legacy“The only thing for the state to do is to go out of the public education business.”

-Walter Sillers – Speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives, 1954

Picture from Porter, Howell, and Hempel, 2014

Purpose and Research Question• The purpose of this study was to

assess the spatial patterns of 3rd grade literacy among Mississippi Public School Students.

• Are students’ reading proficiencies significantly clustered?

Findings

Reading Proficiently

• Districts with the highest percentage of African American and/or poor students had the fewest students reading at the Proficient or Advanced achievement level.

• Findings support previous research and theories of Geographies of Opportunity and Geographies of Exclusion.

• The Mississippi Delta remains an excluded, geographically isolated region.

Local Revenue, Politics, and Student Outcomes• Districts within strong local

economies are least vulnerable to state and federal policies.

• Wealthier districts fare better than poorer districts when states cut funding for education.

• In Mississippi, the least vulnerable districts tend to have the fewest black students.

• Low performing students reside in districts most vulnerable to punitive accountability regimes and budgetary shortfalls.

Moran’s IThe Moran’s I statistic tests against the null hypothesis of random dispersion. A positive Moran’s I statistic indicates spatial/geographical clustering. For students scoring below proficient, Moran’s I is positive (.184855, p<.001); therefore we must reject the null hypothesis of random dispersion.

Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA)There are 10 High-High Clusters of low (Basic and Minimal) reading achievement. These are in the Mississippi Delta. The 14 Low-Low Clusters of proficiency areas are concentrated in Northeast Mississippi and the Mississippi Gulf Coast where no African American enrollment exceeds 30%.

There are 10 outliers and they are all segregation related. For instance Yazoo County School District is 52% black and has twice the local revenue than Yazoo City School District which is 99% black and has twice as many students.

Conclusion• The purpose of this project was to examine the spatial patterns of

student reading proficiency.

• Research Question: Was there significant clustering of low reading proficiency?

• Hypothesis: Students’ reading proficiency is randomly dispersed.

• Result: For students scoring below the proficient achievement level (basic or minimal), Moran’s I is positive (.184855, p<.001); therefore we must reject the null hypothesis of random dispersion.

• Limitations: The Moran’s I statistic is positive and significant, but low. We know there are both racial and gender disparities in reading proficiency. Disaggregated data would provide more explanatory power. The data for this particular cohort, however, was not disaggregated.

Directions for Future Research• This research was an exploratory research endeavor. This findings will

be used to guide future research.

• This project also contributes to research using Geographic Information Science to enhance analysis of student outcomes.

• Because of the relationship between residential segregation and the quality of education GIS will become a valuable means to assess disparities in education.

ReferencesBurd-Sharps, S., Lewis, K., & Martins, E. B. (2009). A Portrait of Mississippi: Mississippi Human

Development Report 2009. Brooklyn: American Human Development Project.

Hernandez, D. J. (2012). Double Jeopardy: How Third-Grade Reading Skills and Poverty Influence High School Graduation. Baltimore, MD.

Lichter, D. T., & Parisi, D. (2008). Concentrated Rural Poverty and the Geography of Exclusion The Carsey Institute Reports on Rural America. Durham, NH: Carsey Institute.

McGraw, J. (2013). Mississippi’s child poverty rate is twice as high as Lithuania’s. Why are we OK with that? The Hechinger Report. New York: Columbia University.

Mississippi KIDS COUNT. (2015). Mississippi Kids Count: 2015 Fact Book. Mississippi State: Mississippi State University, Social Science Research Center.

Moffitt, T. E., & Caspi, A. (2001). Childhood predictors differentiate life-course persistent and adolescence-limited antisocial pathways among males and females. Development and Psychopathology, 13(02), 355-375. doi: doi:null

National Assessment Governing Board. (1995). Developing Student Performance Levels for the ational Assessment of Educational Progress.

Paulson, A. (2009). Student 'Proficiency': What is Your State's Definition? Christian Science Monitor.

ReferencesPender, G. (2015). House Puts Halt to Third Grade Reading Gate. Clarion Ledger. Retrieved from

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/politicalledger/2015/02/10/house-reading-amendment/23196221/

Porter, J. R., & Purser, C. W. (2008). Measuring relative sub-national human development: An application of the United Nation’s Human Development Index using geographic information systems. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 33, 253-269.

Rose, S., & Schimke, K. (2012). Third Grade Literacy Policies: Identificaiton, Intervention, Retention. Denver, CO.

Squires, G. D., & Kubrin, C. E. (2005). Privileged Places: Race, Uneven Development and Geography of Opportunity in Urban America. Urban Studies, 47-68.

Tate, W. F. (2008). "Geography of Opportunity": Poverty Place, and Educational Outcomes. Educational Researcher, 37(7), 397-411.

The Annie E. Casey Foundation. (2010). Early Warning! Why Reading by the End of third Grade Matters. In L. Feister (Ed.). Baltimore, MD.

The Annie E. Casey Foundation. (2013). Kids Count Data Book: State Trends in Child Well-Being. Baltimore.

Workman, E. (2014). Third-grade Reading Policies Reading/Literacy: Preschool to Third Grade. Denver, CO: Education Commission of the States.