EMERGING R

ISK

BY

SYED A

NSER HUSSAIN

,

MBA(HRM)

PRESTO

N UNIV

ERSITY

ISLM

ABAD CAMPU

S,

ISLA

MABAD, PAKIS

TAN

Flood risk grows to unacceptable levels in 3 of the 4 scenarios considered

From both climate change and socio-economic drivers

‘Intra-urban’ flood risk is confused in governance terms and a lot less quantifiable

Continuing with existing policies is not an option

A very serious threat and a challenge to government and society

KEY FINDINGS OF THE DRIVERS ANALYSIS

How important are managing climate change and Engineering ?

Combining the World Markets and Low emissions scenarios could reduce economic damages by 25%. Engineering only might cost 2X to get the same risk reduction. But we can’t do without it either, so: Integrated flood-risk management must lie at the core of our response.

KEY MESSAGES FROM THE RESPONSES ANALYSIS

Flood risk can be held at present day levels using a broad portfolio of responses

This could cost UK an extra £20bn to 80bn over the next 80 years. This means 2 to 4x the 2004 annual investment level

No emerging responses score well across all scenarios in terms of flood risk reduction and sustainability

Most concerns relate to the way that flood responses are implemented ; sustainability and governance are important

We should not eliminate responses but rather aim at producing balanced portfolios that deliver flood risk reduction and sustainability

The time horizon of responsesChoices for responses that have a long lead time:

To implement societal responses with a long lead time sooner

rather than later. This is a precautionary approach to the

increase

in flood risk, or

Rely increasingly on bigger structural flood defences later, with

potential cost and sustainability consequences.

Adaptable, reversible and irreversible responses

Choices for managing uncertainty in future flood risk: To favour reversible options; and To favour responses that have high adaptive capacity and allow incremental enhancements; or To face irreversible adverse consequences for flood management.

Summing up, building a portfolio of responses

“How we use land, balancing the wider economic, environmental and social needs against creating a legacy of flood risk.How we manage the balance between state and market forces in decisions on land use.Whether to implement societal responses with a longer lead time; or rely increasingly on bigger structural flood defences with potential economic, social and environmental costs.How much emphasis to place on measures that are reversible and those that are highly adaptive.”

Final messages Flood risk is set to increase under all scenarios, through climate, economic and governance drivers We can make it easier or harder for ourselves by our actions on global emissions and national governance. There are potentially affordable and sustainable portfolios of responses, with which we can pull back risk to present day levels We will still need to double or quadruple the current annual spend on FRM We need to plan now for future risks, and develop our policies, science and skills.

PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS

Costeffectiveness

Robustness

Environmentalquality

Precaution

society

environment

economy

Socialjustice

Flood Risk

DEFINING THE METRICSCost effectiveness• The cost effectiveness of implementing the response option

Social justice• The impact of action on different types of household

Environmental quality• The impact on biodiversity and the area and quality of habitats

Robustness• The ability of the response actions to cope with uncertainty

relating to socio-economic factors and climate change

Precaution• This metric relates to the ability to cope with extreme events

and operational uncertainty in implementing the responses

SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS SCORING

neutral

++

- -

0

Environmental Quality

Social Justice

Robustness

Precaution

Flood risk

Cost Effectiveness

SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS – A TYPICAL EXAMPLE

Pre-event Measures

World Markets

Global Sustainability

National Enterprise

Local Stewardship

Flood Risk

Cost Effectiveness

Environmental Quality

Social Justice

Precaution

Robustness

++

0

--

• Flood preparedness planning

• Communication and education

• Flood-risk mapping

• Flood plans

• Flood log books

• There are 12 failures under World Markets and 13 under National Enterprise

• The responses themselves do not necessarily lead to social injustice, it is the way that they are potentially applied

• This raises questions in relation to how the responses are delivered together with compensation and relocation

CLOSING MESSAGES ON SUSTAINABILITY

• No emerging responses score well across all scenarios in terms of flood risk reduction and sustainability

• A portfolio of measures is required to deliver effective flood risk management that is sustainable

• Most concerns relate to the way that flood responses are implemented rather than the responses themselves that’s why governance is so important In developing policy and projects, we should not

eliminate any responses a priori but produce balanced

portfolios of structural and non-structural responses

that deliver flood risk reduction and sustainability

Background

New and Emerging Risks at Work – Occupational Safety and Health (OSH)

Consortium composed of 18 European agencies:Germany: BAUA and DGUVFinland: Institute of Occupational HealthSchweden: Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research, FAS

Goals: Enhancing quality and cooperation in the OSH research; synergistic effects and improved flow of information

Joint call in 2009

Start of the project: may 2010

Subsidy amount : 300.000 € in Germany, ….in Sweden; … in Finland

Why focus on leaders' behaviours? Why focus on leaders' behaviours?

Psychological disorders as reasons for sick leave have dramatically increased in the last years

Due to changing nature of work: Increasing importance of psychosocial risk factors

Leaders impact health and well-being of employees in many ways:

task assignment (complexity, autonomy, time pressure)

feedback

social support

participation in decision making

Research on Leadership and Health – in a Research on Leadership and Health – in a nutshellnutshell

The supervisor-subordinate relationship has been reported as one of the most common sources of stress in organizations

LMX, and Transformational leadership as concepts are currently dominating the field of research, but there are also potential negative consequences!

Leaders behaviours can be either a direct predictor for employees health and well-being, or plays a moderating role between stressors, and strain

1. Description of the samples in every country2. Reliability and validity of the scales used3. Differences in perceived leadership between

countries4. Differences in occupational well-being between

countries5. Relationships between leadership and well-

being indicators6. Conclusions

Outline

1. Leadership climate: leaders provide clarity in goals, supply information and feedback, carry out changes at work successfully, promote employee participation and control

2. Transformational leadership: leaders act as role models, provide attractive vision of future, encourage independent thought, pay attention to individual development

3. Authentic leadership: leaders genuinely desire to understand their own leadership to serve others more effectively

4. Fair leadership: leaders treat their subordinates fairly and equally

5. Health-promoting leadership: leaders support employees’ autonomy and participation and take active role in solving conflicts

6. Abusive leadership: leaders show hostile verbal and nonverbal behaviors, excluding physical contact

Leadership Scales

• The samples differ between the countries which limits conclusions.• Leadership is generally perceived as most positively in Sweden

and most negatively in Germany; Finland falls in between.• Occupational well-being is lowest among the German employees,

although the Finnish employees have highest turnover intentions.• Health-promoting leadership shows highest correlations with well-

being indicators in every country (r = |.26-.48|), and leadership climate is the second one (r = |.20-.40|).

Conclusions

CYBER TERRORISM AND ITS THREATS

WHAT IS CYBER TERRORISM An attack that undermines the confidentiality or availability of a computer, information resident on it. Some offences under Computer Misuse and Cybercrime Act 2003: Unauthorized access to data Access with intent to commit offences Unauthorized access to and interception of computer service Damaging or denying access to computer systemThe Intelligence Bureau(IB) has warned regarding the cyber threat •Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam warned in a 2005 lecture regarding the cyber terrorism•Cyber crime experts say this is a dangerous scenario.

POSSIBILITIES OF CYBER TERRORISM

• The cyber terrorism is likely to be fought in three stages.

First the enemy would bring down the control systems of defense .

Secondly, they would look to attack financial services .

Finally, nuclear Power plant nerve center

ESTIMATED ENEMY COUNTRIES

Two countries are estimated in cyber attack towards Pakistan. Namely USA, India and Israel.

USA and India are trying to destabilize our economy.

CHILD PORNOGRAPHY

Internet

Internet provides less risk of being identified. Highly organized, global subculture. Many of them are in countries where child pornography is not a priority for law enforcement. What is child pornography? Definition of child.

LACKING OF CYBER SECURITY It is estimated that 5 thousand of corporate networks have

no protection from cracking. In Home the internet facilities still suffers security. Which

causes cyber hacking of the banking of that house Pakistan becoming the developed nation the number of

transactions has made to digital via Internet has increased . The work of almost all branches of the country like economy, energy, transport and communications, banking uses computer networks.

But still we don’t have cyber security.. The breakage of these networks may paralyze the whole

country. Pakistan being IT emerging power is in need of cyber

security

WAY OF SECURITY

• cyber crime police stations must be established soon.

• The recruitment of professionals is must. • The latest updating of security software's must

be done in companies, schools, colleges and other sectors.

• The pirated soft wares must be put to an end.• The Google maps showing the higher security

parts of the nation must be disabled.• The unauthorized GSM Sims must be

deactivated by the mobile companies .• The mobiles with out IP address must be

banned.• The selling of smarter mobiles must be only to

certified people cause the interaction between those mobile cant be tracked.

•  The recording between blackberry mobiles must be established.

• The education of the security system must be made from school level to colleges.

• The banning of the sites regarding manufacture of bombs and hacking and other offensive sites must be done.

• The nation is vulnerable to new forms of terrorism ranging from cyber attacks to attacks on military bases abroad to ballistic missile attacks on U.S. cities.

• “Wars in the 21st century will increasingly require all elements of national power – not just the military. They will require that economic, diplomatic, financial, law enforcement and intelligence capabilities work together.”

REAL WORLD EXAMPLE – AUSTRALIA 2000REAL WORLD EXAMPLE – AUSTRALIA 2000

Maroochy Shire Waste Water Plant – Sunshine Coast

Insider

46 intrusions over 2 month period

Release of sewage into parks, rivers

Environmental damage

Cost of Capability

Availability of Capability

1955 1960 1970 1975 1985

Invasion

Precision

Guided

Munitions

ComputerStrategicNuclear

Weapons

Cruise Missile

Cost & Means of AttackCost & Means of Attack

1945 Today

MissilesICBM & SLBM

BIO-TERRORISM

Bioterrorism is one form of terrorism. Terrorism is defined as the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government or civilian population in the furtherance of political or social objectives.

Terrorists use weapons of mass destruction. These are destructive devices which include bombs, missiles, poison chemicals, disease organisms, radiation or radioactivity at levels dangerous to human life.

Biologic agents are likely to be used by terrorists as weapons because:

They are capable of damaging populations, economies, and food supplies

Certain agents are inexpensive to make They can be directed at a small group of people or an entire population

They can be used to attack people, economies and food supplies

They cause fear, panic and social disruption

CHARACTERISTICS OF BIOLOGICAL AGENTS THAT COULD BE USED AS BIOTERRORIST AGENTS

• They have a wide range of effects• They are obtained from nature• They are easily made by relatively

unsophisticated methods• They are invisible to the senses• Their effects may be delayed• They can produce mass casualties

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN A BIOLOGICAL ATTACK AND A NATURAL OCCURENCE

• A biological terrorist attack may mimic a large scale naturally occurring disease outbreak. There are differences. A biological attack:

• Results from a deliberate act• Will be treated as a crime scene• May not be immediately recognized

BIOLOGICAL ATTACK VS. NATURAL OCCURRENCE

May be preceded by verbal or written threats from a terrorist group

May find abandoned spray devices may be found

Claims by a terrorist group to have released a biologic agent

May result in contamination of critical facilities

May expand rapidly from different source cases

Will cause widespread public panic

ROUTES OF ENTRY INTO THE HUMAN BODY

Ingestion

Dermal penetration

Inhalation

AEROSOL INHALATION

The use of aerosols is an efficient way to affect the maximum number of people with a single attack.

BIOWEAPONS RECENT HISTORY

Bio weapons have a long history. Recent uses include:

U.S, Canada, Great Britain, Japan, and the U.S.S.R experiment with anthrax during World War II (W.W.II)

In 1991, Iraq threatens use of bio weapons against U. S. troops in Persian Gulf war

Post W.W.II , NATO and the Warsaw Pact nations had bio weapons programs

• In 1969, U. S. unilateral decision to destroy bio weapons• In 1972, Bio weapons Convention created in which U. S.

and U. S. S. R. were signatories • Possible/probable active offensive bioweapons programs

in N. Korea, Iran, China, Egypt, Algeria, India, Pakistan, Syria, Israel

• In 1986, Bhagwan cult poisons Oregon salad bars with salmonella-715 people sick

• In 1995, Aryan Nation orders plague bacteria from supply house in Maryland and Minnesota Patriots Council members convicted for planning ricin use in assassination attempt.

BIOLOGICAL AGENTS

• There are several types of agents. They are classified as:

• Bacteria• Rickettsia• Viruses• Biotoxins

BACTERIA

• Single celled organisms capable of causing disease. These agents, grown on culture to produce large quantities, can be modified or “weaponized” for greater destruction

• Produces inflammation in tissues and/or toxins

EXAMPLES

• ANTHRAX• SMALL POX• PLAGUE• TYPHOID• CHOLERA• TULAREMIA

RICKETTSIA

• Vector borne (ticks, lice, mosquitos) parasitic form of bacteria

• Diseases are difficult to treat

• Variants exist worldwide

EXAMPLES• TYPHUS• ROCKY MT.

SPOTTED FEVER• Q FEVER• INDIA TICK

FEVER• MEDITERANEAN

TICK FEVER

VIRUSES

• Smaller than bacteria

• RNA or DNA in a protein coat

• Use living cells to reproduce

• Not affected by antibiotics

EXAMPLES• EBOLA• LASSA FEVER• INFLUENZA• VIRAL HEPATITIS• VIRAL

HEMORRHAGIC FEVERS

BIOTOXINS

• Are poisonous by-products of bacteria, fungi, marine animals or plants

• Do not replicate in the host

• Are not communicable

• Highly toxic when delivered as an aerosol

EXAMPLES

• BOTULINUM• STAPHLOCCOCA

L ENTEROTOXIN B

• RICIN

BIOLOGICAL AGENTS MOST LIKELY TO BE USED IN A TERRORIST ATTACK

• Bacteria - anthrax, plague, tularemia

• Virus - small pox, viral hemorrhagic fever

• Biotoxin - botulism

ANTHRAX

• Infectious agent: Bacillus anthraces – gram +, spore forming bacteria

• May enter the body from skin (coetaneous), digestive system or by inhalation (most likely route to be used by terrorists)

ANTHRAX• Symptoms: itching, lesions, fever,

fatigue, non-productive cough, respiratory failure and hemodynamic collapse

• Transmission: none person to person except with cutaneous

• Incubation period: 1 to 6 days• Mortality: 5 to 20% percutaneous, 80 to

90% inhalation• Treatment: antibiotics• Prevention: vaccine

PLAGUE

In nature, fleas living on rodents spread infection to humans. As a bioterrorist weapon – inhalation of aerosol leads to pneumonia, sepsis and infections of bodily organs

Infectious agent: Yersinia pestis – a gram neg., non-motile bacillus

May be bubonic ( infection of lymph nodes) or pneumonic (infection of lungs)or septicemic

Symptoms: cough with bloody sputum, fever, chill, shortness of breath

PLAGUE

• Transmission: may occur person to person by respiratory droplet inhalation

• Incubation period: 2 to 3 days• Mortality: 50 to 60%• Treatment: antibiotics• Prevention: vaccine ineffective

against aerosol exposure

TULAREMIA

• A zootomic, bacterial infection caused by Francisella tularensis, a gram negative coccobacillus

• In nature, bacteria is commonly found in ticks living on rabbits and transmitted by handling the animal or by tick bite. Inhalation of aerosol leads to pneumonia and sepsis

TULAREMIA

Symptoms: sudden and influenza-like with fever, chills, headache and nausea

Transmission: not usually person to person

Incubation period:3 to 5 days(range 1 to 14)

Mortality: low unless untreated

Treatment: antibiotics if early, vaccine available

Prevention: in nature, avoid tick bites and using gloves when handling infected animals

BOTULISM• Infectious agent: Clostridium botulinum – a

spore forming, anaerobic bacillus

• In nature, may be food borne, wound, or intestinal. As a bioterrorist weapon, ingestion or inhalation leads to production of the neurotoxin and resulting flaccid paralysis

• Symptom: fatigue, weakness, blurred vision, difficulty in swallowing and speaking, descending muscle paralysis and respiratory failure

• Transmission: none person to person

• Incubation period: 12 to 72 hours

• Mortality: most lethal compound per weight

• Treatment: antitoxins, respiratory support

• Prevention: vaccine available for types A and B

SMALL POX

Infectious agent: Variola virus - Orthopox virus

Declared eradicated in 1980, but stockpiles may exist

Not naturally acquired. It can be disseminated as and inhaled as an aerosol

Symptoms: Fever, muscular rigidity, headaches, and vomiting. Severe cases experience prostration and hemorrhage into skin and mucous membranes

SMALL POX

Rash appears after about three weeks; progresses from macules (initial skin lesions) to papules to pustular vesicles, to scabs

Transmission: may occur person to person by respiratory droplets or skin inoculation. Highly contagious when rash appears

Incubation period: 10 to 12 daysMortality: less than 1% in the minor form and

20 to50 % in the major formTreatment: supportivePrevention: vaccine

VIRAL HEMORRHAGIC FEVERS

These are highly infectious viral illnesses caused by the Filoviruses (Ebola and Marburg), Arenaviruses (Lassa fever), Bunyaviruses (Congo hemorragic fever and Hantaviral disease), and Flaviviruses

Symptoms: vary from one type to the next. They include: sudden onset of fever, muscle aches, headache, followed by vomiting, diarrhea, and rash and internal bleeding

Complications: In severe forms, multiorgan failure occurs, primarily due to hemorrhagic and pulmonary complications

VIRAL HEMORRAGIC FEVERS

Mode of transmission: handling infected wild animals, but may be used as an aerosol bioterrorist weapon

Incubation period: 2 to 21 daysReservoir: gorillas and chimpanzees Transmission: some may be spread person to

person by contact with body secretionsMortality: Ebola rates have reached 90% but

varyTreatment: supportivePrevention: Avoid contact with infected

monkeys or other animal hosts

THANK YOU