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Stephen Abram
Gale Cengage Learning
Education Institute
Sept. 17, 2012
2012 Technology ForecastDriving Forces for Change
Library Megatrends
Digitization’s real impact – non-fiction
Format
Print, ePUB, PDF, Kindle, etc. etc.
CD, DVD, USB, etc. etc.
Streaming
Licenses, Open Access, Creative Commons, etc. etc.
eBooks
eJournals
eContent
Copyright Issues (NatGeo, Tasini, TPP, SOPA, etc. etc.)
Author Lawsuits
Citation fragmentation
Content Fragmentation
Challenging the concept of the ‘book’
• Text
• Links and extension experiences
• Graphics & Charts
• Working Formulae
• Interactive Pictures
• Interactive Maps
• Video
• Audio
• Music – book scores
• Gamification
• Deep Data Mining
• Assessments
• Etc. etc.
Beyond Text
ILS
CMS
Cloud(s)
Device dependencies
Formats (e.g. Kindle)
Amazon
Apple
ADVICE . . .
Walled Gardens
Next Generation Textbooks
eLearning – object componentization
Learning Management Systems
Cohort Learning Environments
Presentation Systems
Virtual Conference Environments
Personal Learning Environments
Collaboration Software and environments
MOOCs
Freelearning
Learning Object Diversification
Teens / Post-Millennials
Millennials
Other demographics
Markets driven by the walled gardens (devices, search engines, software, retailers, schools)
Business versus Consumer
The Device Divide
Mobility
End User Fragmentation
Display versus List
• Consumer Search
• Specialized Search
• Professional Search
• Semantic, Sentiment, Suggestion Search etc.
• Mobile search
• Social search
• Visual Search
• Augmented Reality
• SEO
• SMO
• Content Spam
• Geo-location
Search Fragmentation
The Contradiction: device dependency and divorce
• Feature Phones
• Smartphones
• Tablets
• Laptops
• Desktops
• Gaming stations
• Television
• E-Readers
• Internet of Things
• Browsers
Technology Fragmentation
The polarization of professional discussion
Black and White
Dogmatic vs. Professional positions on: eBooks, access, copyright, etc.
Black & White
Recognize key shifts
Public Libraries
Academic Research Libraries
Community College Libraries
School Libraries
Specialized Libraries
Consortia
Trends Differ by Library Sector
Recommendations (LibraryThing for Libraries, BiblioCommons, BookPsychic (Portland PL)
eBook issues
Community Glue
Economic Impact
Patron-driven acquisitions
Experience Portals
Programs
Partnerships
Education and Learning
Literacy of all kinds
Public Libraries
eLearning
Repositories
Content Archipelagos
LibGuides
Patron-driven acquisitions
Information Fluency
Demarcation between Undergrad, Grad and Faculty/Staff strategies
Copyright compliance
E-Coursepacks and e-Reserves
Strategic budgeting
Partnerships
Academic Research Libraries
Information Literacy
Distance education and eLearning
Textbooks, Reserves, Coursepacks, e-all
MOOCs
Mobility
Collections for new degrees and certifications
Community College and Undergrad
Common Core
21st Century Learning
Future of the textbook
Scaffolded Information Literacy / Fluency
Filters
Staff and Faculty relationships
Classroom pages
School Libraries
Intranets
MS SharePoint
Relationship building
Embedded Librarianship
Social and Professional Positioning, Reputation and Awareness
Specialized Libraries
DPLA (US based, global impact)
Library Renewal
Europeana
EveryLibrary (US Advocacy PAC)
OCLC Linked Data
3M e-books
Califa / Douglas County initiatives
Cloud initiatives
Consortia
Where are the real opportunities?
What strategic pilots and interventions are needed?
So what are the impacts of the key trends?
QR Codes versus Near Field Communication (NFC)
eLearning and Personal Learning Environments (PLEs)
Mobility – concept of place
HTML, HTML5, Apps, etc.
Smartphones, Tablets, Laptops, Desktops
Internet of Things, Intelligent Appliances
Retro-conversions: CD, DVD, Espresso Book Machines, 3D Printing
E-Readers versus Tablet reading
Augmented Reality
Gamification versus Gaming
Payments: Square, NFC, MTML5, Apps
It’s a long list . . .
Post processing tools and literacy
LibGuides and Webliography
Information Portals . . . Knowledge Portals . . . Experience Portals . . .
Smart Rooms . . . Smart Houses . . . Smart Classrooms
Open Access – free, fee, models and accessibility . . . Archipelagos
Mobile versus Landline . . . Decline of the shared phone
Television versus DVD versus Streaming
eBooks evolution – Fiction and Non-Fiction
Collaboration versus Social Sites and software
Consumer versus Professional Search . . . The divorce
Library Collaboration and Cooperation – The Cloud
A longer List . . .
End user diversification – tech Luddites versus zealots
Device literacy . . . Information Literacy . . . Information Fluency . . . Actual work
Globalization of copyright and information / intellectual tools
Geo-tagging and geo-location
Contextual advertising in books and places heretofore unconsidered
Advanced behavioural analytics and impact and satisfaction measures
3D Printing as a service
A long list …
Publishing Industry Changes• Liquid books
• Multimedia embedding
• The beyond text hybrid ‘book’ aimed at learning, work, or entertainment
• Long period of format fragmentation
• Walled gardens and exclusives in some sectors – more retail stressors
• Bestselling ‘Author’ power plays
• eTextbooks and the role of digitally wrapped 20th century solutions
• Rights wars among big players – Apple, Amazon, B&N, and publishers who didn’t exist as publishers in 1999
• Large library acquisition consortia & alliances
• Giant lawsuits
• TPP, ACTA, WIPO, etc.
• Movement to less ownership and more usage based models
• Print on Demand (EBM Kodak announcement)
A longer List . . .
At least in the near future:
• True deep federated search retrieval versus decent source discovery
• Deep Holographs and Holodecks
• Machine language translation
• Android-like Robots
• Self driving cars
• Google glasses
• Death of libraries or the decline of librarians
Not ready for primetime
Grocery Stores
Grocery Stores
Grocery Stores
Cookbooks, Chefs . . .
Cookbooks, Chefs . . .
Meals
What is a meal in library end-user or research, and learning terms?
Let’s think
Think: Are you thinking food, courses, days, weekly plan, or nutrition overall?
Library Space
Community expectations
First Impressions
Cleanliness
Retail models
Displays (return carts, colour blocking, …)
Signage
Smart Rooms
Experience Commons
Community Commons
Boundaries
Parking lots and the skirts as public programming space
Street fairs
Partnerships
Gardens
Library Space Concerns
The new bibliography and
collection development
KNOWLEDGE PORTALS
KNOWLEDGE,LEARNING,
INFORMATION &RESEARCHCOMMONS
What are the real issues?Craft versus Industrial Strength
Pilot, Project, Initiative versus Portfolio Strategy
Hand knitted prototypes versus Production
e.g. Information Literacy initiatives
Discovery versus Search versus Deep Search
eLearning units
Strategic Analytics
Value measures
Behaviours
Be More Open to the Users’ Path
What Would You Attempt If You Knew You Would Not Fail?
My Humble Recommendations Focus on the user, I mean really
Pilot and experiment with mobile social cohorts
Classes (mobile training or extended learning)
Reading cohorts and book clubs (LibraryPsychic and BiblioCommons)
Patron-driven acquisition strategies
Fundraising innovation
Meetings and conferences - webinars
My Humble RecommendationsActively lobby and educate to ensure that the emerging mobile ecosystem supports the values and principles of librarianship for balance in the rights of end users for use, access, learning and research.
Support vendors and laws to be as agnostic as possible by ensuring that, as far as possible your services and content offerings support the widest range of devices, formats, browsers, and platforms.
eLearning
Mobile
Distant
Tools
Get to where the user is.
My Humble Recommendations
Design for frictionless access using such opportunities as geo-IP and mobile ready websites
Test everything in all browsers – mobile or not – all devices.
Invest in usability research aimed at the user experience and test and learn from it and share your learning.
Don’t prioritize the librarian experience first
Watch key developments in major publishing spaces – retail, kiddy lit, textbooks, e-learning, fiction, etc. Sport the differences and opportunities
My Personal Hobby Horses
This is an evolution not a revolution
The REAL revolution was the Internet and the Web.
The hybrid ecology is winning in the near term for operating systems and content formats.
This is good since competition drives innovation and we’re in a Renaissance not an end game right now.
Engage in critical thinking not raw criticism. Be constructive.
Critical thinking is not part of dogma, technolust, or religious fervor or fan boy behavior.
My Personal Hobby Horses This is an evolution not a revolution
Perfectionism will not move us forward at this juncture.
Really understand the digital divide and remove your economic and social class blinkers
Get real about teens and Boomers
Get over library obsession with statistics and comprehensiveness.
Get excellent at real measurements, sampling and understanding impact and satisfaction. (Analytics, Foresee, Pew)
My Personal Hobby Horses
This is an evolution not a revolution We need to revisit the concept of preservation, archives, repositories, and conservation from an access and linked data view. Check out new publishing models like Flipboard. Watch for emerging book enhancements and other features that will challenge library metadata, selection policies, and collection development.
The power of libraries
SmellyYellowLiquid
OrSex
Appeal?
Consider the Whole Experience
Until the lion learns to write her own story, the story will always be from the perspective o the hunter not the hunted.
Stephen Abram, MLS, FSLAVP strategic partnerships and markets
Cengage Learning (Gale)Cel: 416-669-4855
[email protected]’s Lighthouse Blog
http://stephenslighthouse.comFacebook, Pinterest: Stephen Abram
LinkedIn / Plaxo: Stephen AbramTwitter: @sabram
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