Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education (full course slides)

Course Introduction:Disruptive Innovation in Higher

EducationDr. Andrew Sears

President, City Vision Universitywww.cityvision.edu

[email protected]

http://www.cityvision.edu/

mailto:[email protected]

3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education

“Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics.”- Peter Drucker, 1997

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” - Amara’s Law (Roy Amara)

“In 15 years from now half of US universities may be in bankruptcy.”- Clayton Christensen, 2013

Image Source: Wikimedia

Who This Course is ForFaculty, staff, students and administration at

educational institutions wanting to understand and adapt to the changes to their industry

Innovators with an interest in educationAnyone that wants to know how to prepare for the

economy of the future

What: Course ObjectivesUnderstand the latest concepts driving change in higher

educationDevelop strategy for higher education using key concepts

of disruptive innovation and other topicsUse the material from this course to become a change

agent to bring innovation to their institutionUse the material from this course in a "flipped classroom"

discussion among students or leaders at your institution

What: Course Outline1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional

Higher Education3. Economics of Traditional Online Education4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher

Education6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty7. Lean Startup for Education8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis9. College Access & the Race between Technology and

Education10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation

How to Use this CourseIndividually

◦Download to mobile through Udemy or iTunesU or use YouTube Playlist

◦Listen while exercising or commuting◦Go deep with supplemental videos and bibliography

Flipped Classroom Discussion Groups◦Listen to talks in advance◦For your students◦For leaders and change agents at your institutions◦Invite me to Skype in for discussion

Give feedback in discussion forum◦Two way Diffusion of Innovation: Bibliography suggestions, new

initiatives

How: Media Formats & LinksUdemy

◦https://goo.gl/ixlBwn iTunes University

◦https://goo.gl/9pGDAt YouTube (videos only)

◦https://goo.gl/B8kkD2 Slideshare (slides & video only)

https://goo.gl/ixlBwn

https://goo.gl/ixlBwn

https://goo.gl/9pGDAt

https://goo.gl/9pGDAt

https://goo.gl/B8kkD2

https://goo.gl/B8kkD2

“Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.”

- H.G. Wells

Image from Wikipedia

Disruptive Innovation TheoryApplied to Higher Education

Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University

[email protected]



Key Concepts of Disruptive InnovationDisruptive Innovation

◦Definition: process by which a product or service takes root initially in simple applications at the bottom of a market and then relentlessly moves up market, eventually displacing established competitors.

◦Often combines off-the-shelf components in new, simpler ways◦Tend to be produced by new entrants

Sustaining innovations tend to be dominated by incumbents

Low-end disruption serves current market with a good enough product

New-market disruption expands market with better price & access

Source: Christensen, Clayton. (n.d.). Disruptive Innovation. Retrieved from http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/

Cell Phones in 1983

Smartphones: Disruptive Technology

Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Free Press. p. 289

“People with a smartphone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago.”

PCs

Mobile

Disruptive Innovation Theory

Mainframes

10 xMore Users

1/10th

Cost

Traditional

Higher Educatio

n

Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education

Disruptive Innovation Education for Emerging Markets

TraditionalOnline Education

10 xMore Students

1/10th

Cost

For Profit Higher

Education

Community College

Traditional Higher Ed in Emerging Markets

Global CoursewareTech Platforms



Online education is here

Current Stage of Online Education

LMS Stage Courseware Platform Stage


Adoption Lifecycle of Online Education


Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees

USAverage

GlobalAverage

TopIncomeQuartile

3rd IncomeQuartile

1st & 2nd IncomeQuartile

1: TraditionalHigher Education

2: TraditionalOnline Education

3: Courseware Platforms& Emerging Markets

Mac

iPod

iPhone

Innovation Extensions in Higher Education

Environmentally Adaptive“The Is” or Likely Future

Internally Driven“The Ought” or Preferred Future

Past Future

Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf

My Primary Expertise

Your Understanding

Dialogue

A Framework for Discussion“The Is vs. The Ought”

Understanding What’s Driving Change

in Traditional Higher EducationDr. Andrew Sears


[email protected]






Mac

iPod

iPhone


Increasing Cost of Higher Education Historically

Future Forecast for Private Education Demonstrate Unsustainability

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

7.2% AnnualTuition Increase

5% AnnualTuition Increase

2% CPI/Inflation

Inflation Adjusted Tuition = $145,200/year

Inflation Adjusted Tuition = $68,829/year

7.2% annual tuition increase is CCCU average since 2001

Tuiti

on

The Blame Game It’s the Faculty’s

Fault!It’s the

Administration's Fault!

Wait. It’s thestudents’ fault!

The Answer is… Yes

Baumol’s Cost Disease: Increasing Cost of High Skilled Labor

Source: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA.

Baumol’s Cost Disease in Concert Symphonies

Source: Webb, D. (2014, November 3). Baumol’s Cost Disease Is Killing Me! Retrieved from http://www.clydefitchreport.com/2014/11/cost-disease-opera-labor-arts-inflation/

What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 1

Increased Productivity in Other Sectors

Increased Cost of High Skilled

Labor = Increased Costs

of Faculty & Senior

Administration

Increased• standardized tests• large lectures• teaching assistants• administrative staff• adjuncts• underpaid faculty

Symptoms to CopeUnderlying Cause 1Baumol’s Cost DiseaseEconomics of Superstars

Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University

There was a 60 times increase in productivity from 1500-2000.Higher Education has not seen this much productivity increase.

What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 2

Increased College Attainment of the Rich & Wealth

Concentration More Colleges Competing for Students in the Top Income

Quartile (who pay full tuition)

Increased• resort-like campus• building costs• student services

Decreasing Gov’t Funding of Higher Education

Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University

Creates Prisoners Dilemma / arms race ofincreasing expenses to attract full-pay students.

Market Changes & Porter’s Five Forces Model

Competitive Rivalry

Threat of New Entry

Buyer PowerThreat of Substitutes

Supplier Power

Decreased by:• Faculty overcapacity • “Uberization” of adjuncts• Unbundling components• Commoditized content & OERIncreased for:• Faculty superstars

Increased Alternatives to Campus Education:• Online, blended & CBE degrees• Non-degree programs• Employer analytics

• Overcapacity• Consolidation

Dramatically Increased by:• National competition online• Global competition• For-profit & mega-universities

Increased by:• Standardization• Unbundling degrees

Sustaining Innovation Recommendations1. Out-market using analytics:

◦“Moneyball” model (Race with the Machine by developing tech marketing core competency)

◦Models: Arizona State, Liberty, George Fox2. Enhance value using innovation, technology &

blended learning3. Cut costs 4. Provide a more granular approach to balanced P&L by

division5. Move “up market” into graduate education 6. Expand other revenue streams

◦ Health care, grow endowment, etc.

Market Dynamics of Traditional Online Education


[email protected]



Economics of Online Education1. Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online

students) is likely between $500-3,000/year

2. Online education opens up competition independent of geography

3. Online education is a platform business where you pay “rent” to be visible (20-30% of revenue)

4. Dominant characteristic of online education is consolidation13% of students are online only9% are in for-profit institutions

Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke UniversityAmbient Insight

• Higher education overall: about 222 schools make up one-third of enrollment.• Top 20 largest online schools account for one-third of online market.

Source: Online Higher Education Market Update - Eduventures. (n.d.). Retrieved March 16, 2015, from http://www.eduventures.com/insights/online-higher-education-market-update/

Online Education = ConsolidationOnline likely to sustain 1/10 of current schools

Understanding the For-Profit Education Business Model

Sources: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf and http://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/for_profit_report/PartII/GrandCanyon.pdf

Marketing 3389 35%

Profit 1848 19%

Instruction 217722%

Other 2295.1776649

7462 24%

For-Profit Expenses (Grand Canyon)

Private Nonprofit: 32%

Comparing Business Models

Source: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf

For-Profit Private Nonprofit

Public

Revenue/Student

$11,130 $37,869 $18,922

Instruction 26% budget 33% budget 28% budget

Research 0% budget 12.5% budget 14% budget

Recommendations for Online Education1. Invest in marketing

◦ Facilities expense is replaced by marketing expense (rent paid to tech ecosystems to be visible = 20-30% revenue)

2. Create an independent skunkworks division◦ “New wine in new wineskins”◦ Conduct “lean startup” experiments to determine where to focus

3. Scale to reduce costs◦ Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online students)

is likely between $500-3,000/year

Disruptive Innovation in Education for Emerging Markets and Courseware

PlatformsDr. Andrew Sears


[email protected]






Mac

iPod

iPhone


Global Opportunity

100 MillionStudentsin 2000

263 MillionStudentsin 2025(84% of growth in the developing world)

Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf

137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025

New Map of the World

Bottom of Pyramid (BoP) Innovation Principles Price Performance Innovation: Hybrids Scale of Operations Sustainable Development: Eco-Friendly Identifying Functionality Process Innovation Deskilling Of Work Education Of Customers Designing for Hostile Infrastructure Interfaces Distribution: Accessing the Customer BOP markets essentially allow us to challenge the conventional wisdom in

delivery of products and services

Potential Scenario: 2035-2050Global Scenario

◦ 10 times growth in tertiary education globally◦ 90% of degrees are in non-western countries◦ Majority of the world receives degrees/credentials that are nearly free

US Scenario◦ Loss of government subsidies in public higher education means many state

schools are likely to compete in a non-subsidized competitive market◦ Private schools experience dramatic increase in market share relative to public

higher education◦ Private higher education experiences major consolidation◦ Private schools lose some market share to free services provided on tech

platforms (like LinkedIn, Google, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft)◦ 70% of Americans receive a degree with growth primarily coming from low-cost

providersSources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke UniversityAmbient Insight

Future of Higher Education 2035Tier 1: The Elite

◦ Serve top 5-10% students, tuition >$100k/year (in 2015 dollars) ◦ Analogy: New York Times, Economist, Organic Farming, Luxury Watches

Tier 2: High Quality, Moderate Cost◦ 50% in bankruptcy or merged, tuition $50-100k/year, high touch◦ Analogy: Physical Retail, Cable TV, Phone Companies

Tier 3: Good Enough Quality, Low Cost◦ 100k+ students or niche, tuition $100-$5,000/year◦ Analogy: Huffington Post, Netflix, Skype, niche ecommerce

Tier 4: Courseware Ecosystem Small Businesses◦ Sell apps, courses, educational content, books, certificates, student services,

videos, etc.◦ Analogy: eBay/Amazon merchants, bloggers, self-publishers, app developers

Tier 5: Courseware platforms◦ 100’s of millions or billions of students, LinkedIn/Lynda.com

Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University

How to Survive the Coming Storm:Lessons from Industry Case Studies

1. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and scale.

◦ Retail & ecommerce, Farming

2. Offer both/and products to compete.◦ Cable TV’s Video on Demand vs. Netflix

3. Be more like innovators while retaining your strengths.

◦ Journalism & News: New York Times4. Invest in digital growth not physical growth.

◦ Blockbuster vs. Netflix

Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University

Recommendations for Emerging Markets1. Create an emerging markets skunkworks division within

your online skunkworks division◦ i.e. College for America, City Vision University, Low-Cost Vocational

Qualification Providers2. Start with a price that emerging market customers can

afford, then design around that. Price near marginal cost.

3. Use automation, unbundling and scale from emerging markets to reduce cost in traditional online education.

4. Design for mobile first for content delivery.5. Disrupt yourself, at lowest levels, but use marketing and

pricing mechanisms to limit cannibalization of your higher priced products.

6. Use lean startup methods with technology as core competency.

City Vision Growth Vision & Decreasing Costs

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

250 750 2,000

4,000

8,000

16,000

32,000

$3,000

$2,000 $1,750

$1,500

$1,000

Stu

dent

s

Mar

gina

l Cos

t Per

Stu

dent

Students

Marginal Cost Per Student

Pricing would be above marginal cost.

Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education


[email protected]



Modular vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time


Modular Arch

itectu

re

Interd

epen

dent

Archite

cture

Unbundling in the Computer Industry

Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove

Other Examples• Netflix vs. Cable TV• iTunes vs. Albums• Online news vs. Newspapers

Components Packaged in a Traditional Degree

Items in italics are added by Andrew Sears. Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdfand http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/

(Affective)

(Cognitive)

(Psychomotor)

(Metacognition)

Darker blue represents componentsthat are the easiest to automate/disrupt.

http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-

http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/

University

Virtually Integrated UniversityKnowledge Acquisition

Access toOpportunity

Metacognition& Skills

TransformativeExperience

Paradigm 2. The Unbundled University

University

Unbundled UniversityKnowledge Acquisition



TransformativeExperience Univ.

Boot Camps& Accelerators

OpenEducatio

n

Vocational & Trade Schools

IndustryCertificatio

ns

Boot Camps &

AcceleratorsStaffing

Agencies

MOOCs& Apps

Univ.

Univ.

Gap Year Service Learning Study Abroad

Univ.Paid

Courseware

CBE/Prior

LearningCommunity College

Internships& Externships

AlternativeCredentials

ReligiousService

University

Employer

Networks

Alternative Ed

Providers

IndependentProjects

University Unbundled Competitors to Universities

Unbundling typically shifts producer surplus (university profits)to consumer surplus (student benefits)

Rebundling Examples: Western Governors University

Western Governors’ Rebundled ProgramKnowledge Acquisition




Course Mentors (SME)

Credit by Exam & Prior Learning

Degree

PaidCourseware

Credit by Exam orCompetency Evaluation

Documented Competencies

IndustryCertifications

No Offering

Student Mentors Evaluators Program

Faculty Practicum

Rebundling Example: LinkedIn

LinkedIn Rebundled ProgramKnowledge Acquisition




Job Placement Service & Coaching

Lynda.com

Competency

ProfileEmployer Analytics

Third Party

Badging

IndustryCertification

s

Employment Social

NetworkTesting

Services

Universities

No Offering

Rebundling Example: Code Academies

Code Academies’ Rebundled ProgramKnowledge Acquisition




Mentored Project-Based Learning

Most Current, Highest Demand Contentfrom Top Practitioners

Relationships to

EmployerEmploymentGuarantees

Brand for Recruiting

Raw Brainpower

No Offering

Rebundling Examples: Vocational Qualifications

Vocational Qualifications Rebundled Program (EQF, RQF, etc.)

Knowledge Acquisition



TransformativeExperience No Offering

Level 3

Level4

Top-up Bachelor’s

Degree

Level8

Level5

Level 7

Master’s

Prior Learning Assessment

Doctorate

Vocational Learning Centers

Internships& Externships

Employer

Networks

IndustryCertificatio

ns

On-the-jobTraining

BecomingCommoditized• Freshman• Sophomore• High School

Core Competency• Grad School

• Senior

• Junior

Stra

tegy

: Mig

rate

Up

Race with the machine not against the machine

StrategyAccelerated educationwith automation

StrategyDouble Down

Unbundle/Outsource Lower Tiers of Bloom’s Taxonomy

Blo

om’s

Tax

onom

y Le

vel

Low LevelBloom’s

HighLevelBloom’s

Subjectivity of AssessmentObjectiveAssessments

SubjectiveAssessments

Most Subject toCommoditization& Automation

Most Dependent on People

Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty


[email protected]



Market and Technology Drivers for Porter’s Five Forces Model for Universities

Competitive Rivalry

Threat of New Entry


Supplier Power

Decreased by:• Faculty overcapacity • “Uberization” of Adjuncts• Unbundling components• Commoditized content & OERIncreased for:• Faculty superstars

Increased Alternatives to Campus Education:• Online, blended & CBE degrees• Non-degree programs• Employer analytics

• Overcapacity• Consolidation

Dramatically Increased by:• National competition online• Global competition• For profit & mega-universities

Increased by:• Standardization• Unbundling degrees

Market and Technology Drivers for Porter’s Five Forces Model for Universities

Competitive Rivalry

Threat of New Entry

StudentsThreat of Substitutes

FacultyTechnology

Technology

OuchOuch

Unbundling and Deskilling Faculty:Western Governors’ Model





Credit by Exam & Prior Learning

Degree

PaidCourseware

Credit by Exam orCompetency Evaluation

CBE IndustryCertifications

Student MentorsEvaluators Program

Faculty (ID)Requires critical new skills in tech & instructional design. More scalable than departmentchair structure.

Deskilled positionwith relational core competency

Core competencyof faculty becomesstandardized, commoditized &requires new skillsin online teaching

Lecture & much of content development is outsourcedas course content market becomes like book market

University of Phoenix Employs 29 Instructors to1 Course Designer(1)

Sources: About Western Governors University | WGU Faculty. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2016, from http://www.wgu.edu/about_WGU/wgu_faculty(1) American Higher Education in Crisis?: What Everyone Needs to Know®. (2014) (1 edition). Oxford ; New York: Oxford University Press.

Course Mentors (SME)

Porter’s Five Forces Model for Faculty

Competitive Rivalry

Threat of New Entry


Supplier Power

• Commoditized Content • OER & MOOCs• Paid Courseware• Student Mentors• Instructional Designers

• Overcapacity• Decreasing WagesIncreasing Unemployment

Dramatically Increased by:• Distance independence of online faculty• Global market for faculty• Pre-packaged course publishers• Glut of graduate education in some fields

DramaticallyIncreased by:• Standardization• Unbundling faculty• Online content

Decreased by:• Open content• Better research tools• Increased access to published research

Improving Faculty Productivity through Automation

Automation and Hollowing Out of the Middle:In the Future Faculty Will Either be a Superstar or a Factory Worker

Source: Financial Times Graphic. Smith, Y. (2015, December 10). Demise of the US Middle Class Now Official. Retrieved from http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/12/demise-of-the-us-middle-class-now-official.html

Case Study Examples

Journalism jobs are down 42% from their peak

Sources (listed above or Newsonomics: The halving of America’s daily newsrooms. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.niemanlab.org/2015/07/newsonomics-the-halving-of-americas-daily-newsrooms/

1. How to justly serve faculty facing declining economic prospects? 2. Will much of faculty research go the way of investigative journalism?

Equipping Faculty Entrepreneurs

Retraining for a Reimagined Role of FacultyCase Studies:

◦ Farming, manufacturing, music industry, journalism, TEDFind Research Funding or Find your “TED Talk”

◦ Start with your “Idea Worth Spreading”Growth of Faculty Entrepreneurs will follow growth of

entrepreneurship in other sectorsFaculty need to establish a platform across multi-format and multi-

channel revenue sources◦ Spread ideas horizontally across different media and markets◦ Teaching, consulting, writing, blogging, podcasts, YouTube, etc. ◦ University is one of many channels

Information-Based Business ModelsCost Minimization/ Benefit Acquisition Public Domain Intrafirm Barter/Sharing

Rights-based exclusion (make money by exercising exclusive rights—licensing or blocking competition)

Romantic Maximizers (authors, composers; sell to publishers; sometimes sell to Mickeys).

Faculty: Commercial Publishing. Self-publishing.

Mickey (Disney reuses inventory for derivative works; buy outputs of Romantic Maximizers).

Faculty course development. Paid MOOCs.

RCA (small number of companies hold blocking patents; they create patent pools to build valuable goods).

Faculty: Patents.

Nonexclusion Market (make money from information production but not by exercising the exclusive rights)

Scholarly Lawyers (write articles to get clients; other examples include bands that give music out for free as advertisements for touring and charge money for performance; software developers who develop software and make money from customizing it to a particular client, on-site management, advice and training, not from licensing).

Faculty Self-Publishing for their Personal Consulting Business

Know-How (firms that have cheaper or better production processes because of their research, lower their costs or improve the quality of other goods or services; lawyer offices that build on existing forms).

Faculty University Community; Contracting for Consulting Firms

Learning Networks (share information with similar organizations—make money from early access to information. For example, newspapers join together to create a wire service; firms where engineers and scientists from different firms attend professional societies to diffuse knowledge).

Research Consortiums. Academic Societies.

Nonexclusion- Nonmarket

Joe Einstein (give away information for free in return for status, benefits to reputation, value of the innovation to themselves; wide range of motivations. Includes members of amateur choirs who perform for free, academics who write articles for fame, people who write opeds, contribute to mailing lists; many free software developers and free software generally for most uses) Faculty Academic Publishing. Blogging. Free self-publishing. Podcasts. Open Education & Content. YouTube. Free MOOCs.

Los Alamos (share in-house information, rely on in-house inputs to produce valuable public goods used to secure additional government funding and status).

University Research Labs. Nonprofit or Corporate Research Labs.

Limited sharing networks (release paper to small number of colleagues to get comments so you can improve it before publication. Make use of time delay to gain relative advantage later on using Joe Einstein strategy. Share one’s information on formal condition of reciprocity: like “copyleft” conditions on derivative works for distribution)

Informal Peer Review Networks

Benkler, Y. (2007). The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom. Yale University Press. pp 43

http://www.benkler.org/Benkler_Wealth_Of_Networks.pdf

Tech as a Core Competency of FacultyJust as in other professions in the future, faculty without

tech as a core competency will not be competitive◦Instructional design◦Online research and content curation◦Online publishing: Blogging, podcasting, YouTube, social media,

etc. ◦If you are faculty under age of 55, this will be essential

Strongest demand will be for faculty that cross extreme technology fluency with their field◦i.e. Bioinformatics, Big Data/Analytics + Your Field

ConclusionRole of the university is to enable the faculty’s success in

a market where the university will only be one revenue channel for most faculty

Labor laws will need to adjust for blurring line between contractor and full-time employee

Some faculty will need to be retrained for other employment

Millennials are more likely to adjust to a faculty/entrepreneur market as 60% of millennials consider themselves entrepreneurs

The Power of Millennial Entrepreneurship. (n.d.). Retrieved January 12, 2016, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/britt-hysen/the-power-of-millennial-e_b_5801322.html

Lean Startupfor Education


[email protected]



Backwards (Waterfall) Program DesignAudience is Traditional Students

Outcomes for Well-Defined Fields

Assessments Based on Known Outcomes

Instruction with Known Content Available

FeedbackIterationIs Years

Best Development MethodologyChanges Based on Environment

Development Methodology

We know what customers want

We know how to deliver it

Waterfall √ √Agile √ ?Lean Startup ? ?

Problem Solution

Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/

Waterfall vs. Agile vs. Lean Design


(Backwards Design/Traditional Assessment Plans)

Lean Startup Process

Build

MeasureLearnProduct(start with minimum viable product)

Data

PivotMaximizeLoopIteration Speed

Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.

How Do You Reach 6 Billion People without Access to Higher Education? Design for 4 Interrelated Uncertainties

ChangingStudents

ChangingGoals

AffordableContent

Availability

Costs

Different students based on differentgoals, content and costs.$1,000 degree vs. $10k degree

What goals are realistic given the students, costs and content?

Different costs, goals and studentswill present different content options +content & platforms are rapidly changing.

Different content availability,goals and students will allowradically different costs.

Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis for Higher Education


[email protected]



Demographic Shifts in the US: The End of the Good Times

Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.

Change High School Graduate by State


Demographic Shifts: Race/Ethnicity


Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg

Global Education Statistics


Changing global postsecondary/

tertiary student demographics

>75%from low or mid-income countries

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

28M

177M

>250M

Enrolled tertiary students

Increasingratio of woman to men

in higher education

Source: UNESCO via http://www.slideshare.net/BlackboardInc/todays-students-need-more-than-an-lms

Source: Malik, K. (2013). Human development report 2013. The rise of the South: Human progress in a diverse world. The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World (March 15, 2013). UNDP-HDRO Human Development Reports. Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf

Global Projection on Tertiary Education(baseline and optimistic)

Global Projection on Tertiary Education(four scenerios)

Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf

Growth of Private Education GloballyPrivate education globally has a growing market share for

decades: now at 30% of global marketRegions with highest private education

◦>70% private: Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Korea◦About 20-30%: South Asia, Latin America, Africa◦<15% private: China, Southeast Asia, New Zealand

Source: Private Higher Education: A Global Revolution. (2005). Rotterdam: Sense Publishers.

Source: "U.S. Federal Spending-Share of Mandatory vs. Discretionary Spending" by Farcaster - Time series chart created from CBO data plus author computations. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Spending-Share_of_Mandatory_vs._Discretionary_Spending.png#/media/File:U.S._Federal_Spending-Share_of_Mandatory_vs._Discretionary_Spending.png

Expenditures in the United States federal budget. (2016, January 25). In Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Expenditures_in_the_United_States_federal_budget&oldid=701618119

Summary of Key TrendsTraditional Higher Education

NontraditionalStudents

Emerging Markets

Private Education

Technology

College Access, the Opportunity Divide & the

Race between Technology and EducationDr. Andrew Sears


[email protected]



Three Waves of History

Agricultura

lIndustri

alInformati

onPrimary/Secondary School Higher Education

Decline of Farm Jobs

Source: ong depression – azizonomics. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://azizonomics.com/tag/long-depression/

20th Century Challenge: High School Graduation

Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.

Source: (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014)

47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated away over the next decade or two (Frey & Osborne, 2013)

Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2014). Percent of Employment in Manufacturing in the United States (DISCONTINUED). Retrieved November 21, 2014, from https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USAPEFANA/

21st Century Challenge: College Graduation

Figure 10. Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort

Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.

“Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.”

- H.G. Wells

Image from Wikipedia

Who is Winning the Race Between Education & Technology?

1915-1980 1980-2005-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

Growth Supply of Degrees Jobs Lost Now Requiring DegreesEducation > Tech Job Loss

Annu

al G

row

th

EducationWinning

TechnologyWinning

Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.

Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.

Changing our Educational Trajectory

Source: Lumina Foundation Vision

2025 2050 2075 20930%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Straight Line Projection Growth Degree Attainment (USA)

Access is Dominant Narrative for 21st Century

Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment

The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. (2015, January). Indicators of Higher Education Equity in the United States 45 Year Trend Report. http://www.pellinstitute.org/

College Access Focus: the Bottom Half

37 pt. growth

3 pt. growth

6 pt. growth

19 pt. growth

Traditional College Focus

Disruptive InnovationOpportunity

2025 2050 2075 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile

Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile

(Disruptive InnovationOpportunity)


2025 2050 2075 21000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Difference in Projected Educational Attainment

Straight Line Projection

No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles


College Entrance, Completion & Persistence by Income Quartile

Source: Percentage of Students Entering and Completing College, and College Persistence, by Income Quartile | Russell Sage Foundation. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://www.russellsage.org/research/chartbook/percentage-students-entering-and-completing-college-and-college-persistence-incom

The Problem with Credentialism and Educational Inflation

The 25th percentile for male college graduates has been about $4,000 to $5,000 more than the median male high school graduate in recent years, whereas among women, the gap has recently been around $2,000.

Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credentialism_and_educational_inflation and College May Not Pay Off for Everyone Liberty Street Economics. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/09/college-may-not-pay-off-for-everyone.html#.VqfMe9Q4G72

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credentialism_and_educational_inflation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credentialism_and_educational_inflation

Debt: Distribution of Total Student Debt by Level of Household Net Worth

Source: Three Signs That Young Americans Are Getting a Raw Deal | BillMoyers.com. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://billmoyers.com/2015/02/24/three-signs-young-americans-getting-raw-deal/

Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree

Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (n.d.). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018 | Center on Education and the Workforce. Retrieved April 21, 2014, from http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018

The Opportunity Divide:Mismatch of Jobs & Education

Jobs in 2018

People in 2012

Difference

Less than High School 10% 12.42% -2.4%

High School Degree 28% 30.72% -2.7%

Some College 12% 16.97% -5.0%Associate’s

Degree 17% 9.45% 7.6%Bachelor’s

Degree 23% 19.49% 3.5%Graduate Degree 10% 10.95% -0.9%Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (n.d.). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018 | Center on

Education and the Workforce. Retrieved April 21, 2014, from http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018


Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees

USAverage

GlobalAverage

TopIncomeQuartile

3rd IncomeQuartile

1st & 2nd IncomeQuartile

Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation


[email protected]



3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education

“Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics.”- Peter Drucker, 1997

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” - Amara’s Law (Roy Amara)

“In 15 years from now half of US universities may be in bankruptcy.”- Clayton Christensen, 2013


What Change Agents & Innovators Should Avoid



We are here

Proven Data Theoretical Projection

What Skeptics of Disruptive Innovation Should Avoid

Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation

ChangeAgent

ChangeAgency

YourInstitution

Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.

Sequence of Change Agent Roles1. To help clients see a need for change2. To establish an information exchange relationship3. To diagnose problems4. To create an intent to change in the client5. To translate intentions into action6. To stabilize adoption and prevent discontinuance7. To achieve a terminal relationship with clients

Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.

Determinants of Success of Change Agents1. The extent of the change agent’s effort in contacting

clients2. A client orientation rather than a change agency

orientation3. The degree to which the diffusion program is

compatible with clients’ needs4. The change agent’s empathy with clients5. His or her homophily with clients6. Credibility in the clients’ eyes7. The extent to which he or she works through opinion

leaders8. Increasing clients’ ability to evaluate innovationsSource: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.

Environmentally Adaptive“The Is” or Likely Future

Internally Driven“The Ought” or Preferred Future

Past Future


My Primary Expertise(change agency)

Your Understanding(change agent)

Dialogue

A Framework for Discussion“The Is vs. The Ought”

Constraints on InnovationDebt/Lack of capitalCurrent cost structureCommitment to facultyPhysical plant/sunk costPolitical realitiesLack of core competency in innovationMissional constraintsOutdated underlying worldview/myths

Mechanisms of Diffusion of InnovationOnline Courses (this course)Conferences, workshops, webinarsFormal education: degrees, courses, lecturesMedia: books, videos, websites, magazines, software,

open resourcesEmployment: Staff trainingNetworks: Professional networks & associations, networks

of peersPrograms, products and their replicationPersonal: Consulting, word of mouthPublications: Open source software/open contentWho are the leaders in innovation?

Methods

Market

Disruptive Innovation will Change Methods & Market

Mission

Mission Does Not Change! (unless your mission is defined by methods & and market)

How do you define your mission?

“We are the best plowmen in farming”Source: File:Winslow Homer - The Plowman (1878).jpg - Wikimedia Commons. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Winslow_Homer_-_The_Plowman_(1878).jpg

1. BOP Strategies2. Unbundling3. Cradle to grave education ecosystem4. Education on demand (Race with the machine)

1. Economics of Online Education2. Mega-Universities3. Cultural & Demographic Shifts4. Increasing Costs

Sustainability Challenges toHigher Education in the USA

(paradigms)


Environmental (adaptive)vs. Internally-Driven (interpretive) Strategy

Using this Course for Discussion Groups

1. Identify those with the power to bring change2. Have them review this course and other helpful material3. Organize a discussion group on implications for your

institution4. Develop a strategy to move toward change5. Develop experiments to move toward change

As educators the primary thing we can do is to educate those who have the power to bring change.

Case Study Lessons for Faculty and Higher Education

InstitutionsDr. Andrew Sears


[email protected]



Effect of the Long Tail: 80/20 Rule Becomes the 60/40 Rule

80% of profit comes from 20% of products

60% of profit comes from 40% of products

Effects of the Long Tail & Higher EducationLong Tail Increases Diversity of Content

◦ Blockbuster Video: 80% of rentals are recent “blockbusters,” only carries 75 documentaries

◦ Netflix: 30% of rentals are “blockbusters” and carries 1,180 documentaries◦ Amazon: carries 17,061 documentaries (of a possible 40,000)

Long Tail of Search Terms (TechMission Websites)◦ Top 500 search terms provide 19.5% of visitors◦ 604,916 search terms provide 80.5% of visitors

Long Tail’s Implications for Diversity and College Access◦ Non-Western culture voices are almost entirely on the long tail.◦ The Internet extends the long tail. It decreases the proportion controlled by big

media and traditional universities from 80% to around 60% which gives more room for non-Western voices.

◦ Open strategy maximizes visibility of non-Western voices.

The Chris Anderson Paradox

Content Is King Content Is CommoditizedBest in the World OriginalContent Is King

Second BestContent Is Commoditized

Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No Middle

Wor

ld’s

Bes

tLo

ng T

ail

Journalism Video Publishing Ideas Courses Credentialing

DisruptiveCompetencyBased Education

Traditional Degree

Publishing as a Case Study

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Modeling the Rise of Indie Authorship

1. Trade Books in Print

2. Trade eBooks 3. Indie eBooks

Mar

ket S

hare

Mark Coker. (2014, March 5). Smashwords: 10 Reasons Indie Authors Will Capture 50% of the Ebook Market by 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2016, from http://blog.smashwords.com/2014/03/sizing-self-publishing-market-10.html

Trade isWorld’s Best

Indie isLong Tail

Publishing as a Case Study: Best vs. Long Tail

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0.00% 0.08% 0.40% 2.00% 3.00% 4.50%8.00%

11.25%15.00%

19.25%24.00%

29.25%35.00%

Modeling the Rise of Indie Authorship

1. Trade Books in Print

2. Trade eBooks 3. Indie eBooks

4. Total Indie Market Share

5. Total Trade Market Share

Mar

ket S

hare

Mark Coker. (2014, March 5). Smashwords: 10 Reasons Indie Authors Will Capture 50% of the Ebook Market by 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2016, from http://blog.smashwords.com/2014/03/sizing-self-publishing-market-10.html

Trade isWorld’s Best

Indie isLong Tail

As More Students Go Online Will Traditional Higher Education Follow Market Share Trajectory of Publishing?

Chart from: Allen, I. E., & Seaman, J. (2014). Grade change: Tracking online education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Ouahog Research Group. Retrieved from www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/gradechange.pdf

Journalism & Newspapers as a Case Study

Sources: Mark Perry. (2012, September 6). CARPE DIEM: Free-fall: Adjusted for Inflation, Print Newspaper Advertising Will be Lower This Year Than in 1950. Retrieved from http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html Newsonomics: The halving of America’s daily newsrooms. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.niemanlab.org/2015/07/newsonomics-the-halving-of-americas-daily-newsrooms/

Journalism Jobs down 42% from their peak

Sources (listed above or

Factors that Affect Susceptibility to DisruptionIs there a technology core that could rapidly innovate?

◦Yes. Online/digital educationHow much is the industry regulated?

◦Moderately: Higher education vs. energy or pharmaceuticals (most regulated)

Are there new industries requiring incumbent’s core competencies?◦i.e. Landline phone companies becoming mobile operators◦i.e. Cable television becoming broadband Internet providers

Is there very high investment cost to enter market?◦i.e. Energy and pharmaceuticals

Are there only a few competitors?◦i.e. Television Networks

Sources: Rob Perrons. (2013, September). Why the energy technology revolution hasn’t happened: Robert Perrons at TEDxQUT. Presented at the TEDx Talks, Queensland University of Technology. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=FeG0-goXmjA

Corporate Strategy Principles from Case StudiesBest in the world content corporate strategy

◦Increase scale and market power through consolidation◦Develop tech capacity, hybrid solutions and value innovation

strategies◦Cut costs to prepare for declining market share◦Invest in digital growth and diversify into other growth markets◦Use regulation to limit competition or to provide increased

subsidyLong tail corporate strategy

◦Core competency is technology◦Dramatically reduce per-unit cost through crowdsourcing◦Work to commoditize long tail content so you capture value as

aggregator◦Self-regulate to avoid regulation◦Leverage strength of long tail in cost, diversity and globalization

Personal Strategy Principles from Case StudiesBest in the world content personal strategy

◦Find your “idea worth sharing” niche where you can be best in the world

◦Use multi-channel marketing to develop your brand: books, online, articles, speaking, presentations, blog, podcasts, videos, university affiliation, etc.

Long tail personal strategy◦Develop efficiency for volume production to make a living in a low

per-unit cost market◦Increase revenue by moving upscale by increasing quality◦Increase revenue by using multi-channel marketing◦Recognize that employers receive 100 times as many resumes, so

get your name out there 100 times a much

Unbundling, Innovation and the Changing Landscape of Accreditation

and RegulationDr. Andrew Sears


[email protected]



Regulation & the Changing Role of Workers & Consumers

Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meeker

Regulation & the Changing Role of Workers & Consumers

KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meeker

From Faculty Centric to Student CentricUnbundling and Sharing Economy (Uber) Helps Students but Hurts Faculty

Regulators

InnovatorsIncumbents

Students

Faculty

Unbundling typically shifts producer surplus (university profits & faculty salaries)to consumer surplus (lower tuition and increased student benefits)

Porter’s Five Forces Model, Accreditation & Regulation

Competitive Rivalry

Threat of New Entry


Supplier Power

(faculty)Faculty Power Increased by• Faculty-driven accreditation requirements (ratios, PhDs)

Faculty Power Decreased by:• Lax laws for contractors• Requirements for financial solvency

Regulation for Efficient Market:• Credit portability• Course-based accreditation (ACE)Protective Strategy:• Exclusivity of regional accreditation

Protective Strategy:• Increased regulation (of for profit schools)• Increased accreditation requirements• State authorization requirements

Regulation for Efficient Market:• College Scorecard• RoI/Cost/Performance PressuresProtective Strategy:• Information Asymmetry• Differentiation & Increased Tuition

Protective Strategy:• Government bailout

Lean Startup, Innovation & the Problem with the Current Assessment Model for Accreditation


(Backwards Design/Traditional Assessment Plans)

Blue Ocean Strategy, Value Innovation and the Problem with Current Accreditation Metrics

Modular vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time


Modular Arch

itectu

re

Interd

epen

dent

Archite

cture

Output vs. input

RecommendationsSupport more modular accreditation (course level and unit

level)◦ACE Credit Recommendation

For Profit Higher Education

Current Stage of Online Education

1st Wave For Profit 2nd Wave (Courseware Tech Ecosystems)


Adoption Lifecycle of Online Education

3. Growth of For-Profits

Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).

Growth of For-Profit Education


For-Profits Dominate Age 22 and above


For-Profits Dominate Black & Latino Students


For-Profits Serve Disproportionately Female Students


Average Revenue per Student


Average Spending Per Student


For-Profits Get Disproportionally High Federal Aid


For-Profits Have Highest Load Debt Per Student


Instructional Spending by Type


University of Phoenix (2010)Enrollment = 600,000

University of Phoenix (2015)Enrollment = 215,000

Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education


Environmental (adaptive)vs. Internally-Driven (interpretive) Strategy

Disruptive Innovation & the Is-Ought Distinction

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, The courage to change the things I can, And the wisdom to know the difference.

Just because something is happening does not mean it should happen.

A Best Guess on WisdomThings I cannot change Massive consolidation in higher

education

Western education eclipsed by “the rest”

Future dominance of technology in education

Baumol’s cost disease

Changing roles of faculty

Future growth of traditional Western Christian higher education

Thing I can change Pursue strategies to achieve scale

Develop business models for BoP

Embrace tech as core competency

Cut cost, automate and unbundle for efficiency

Retrain faculty for economic future

Invest in new growth markets

Three Visions for Future Growth of HE1. Government

◦ Universal Community College, Nationalized Higher Education: Obamacare for Higher Education

◦ Government mega-universities: 1 million+ students◦ Challenge: increases secularizing influence of government

education2. Global Educational Conglomerate

◦ 50% of “degrees” globally by 2050 may come from 3-4 tech companies offering free education with a small payment for the credential

◦ Challenge: Likely to follow same secularizing tendency as media conglomerates

3. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education◦ Innovators learn to build modularly on 1 & 2 to expand

Christian market share in post-secondary educationSource: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University

1800 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025 -

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1,800,000,000

2,000,000,000

Christian Membership by Region

West SouthStatus of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf

1900 1970 2000 2007 20250%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

21%

59%

86%91%

99%

79%

41%

14%9%

1%

Growth of Christianity by Region

Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf

Christian Mega-universities & Growth

Liberty U43%

Grand Canyon U39%

All of CCCU19%

Estimated Growth Since 2005Total Growth: 175,808 students

Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.

Methods

Market

Disruptive Innovation will Change Methods & Market

Mission

Mission Does Not Change! (unless your includes methods and market)

Essential Elements of Christian Education1. Christian worldview2. Christian community3. Christian content4. Christian care for stakeholders

Process for Modular Christian Education

Theology & Christian Worldview

Audience, Pedagogy & Goals

Christian Community, Transformative Experience & Metacognitive Education

ChristianCourses

Theology Courses

Secular Courseware

Secular MOOCs &

Open Education ResourcesSu

bjec

ts

Components Packaged in a Traditional Degree

Items in italics are added by Andrew Sears. Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdfand http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/

The Core Competenciesof Christian Educationare the Hardest to Replace(Life Transformation &Metacognition)

(Affective)

(Cognitive)

(Psychomotor)

(Metacognition)

http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-

http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/




Rebundling Example: Online Christian Education





WorkplaceMentoring

Online Education

Degree

Internship/Practicum

PastoralMentoring

Service Learning

Discipleship Program

International or Urban Immersion

View Christian education as a cradle to grave ecosystem.

Nearly FreeContent& Innovation

Christian College(Life Transformation)

+ BetterThan

Government Subsidized State University

In a platform world, how do we make the entire Christian education ecosystem/platform more competitive?

Innovation + Life Transformation Has Growing Competitive Advantage over Government Subsidy

Traditional Higher Education

Traditional Monastery Higher Education Model

Local ChristianCommunity

Practical Work ExperienceStudents “Close” to Instructor

Distant From

Students

Re-bundling Online Education with Church Study Groups & Internships

Local Discipleship &Study Groups

Practical Work Experience

Distant From

Students

Instructor

What business has the most locations in the USA?

14,146

25,900

Sources: http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_facts.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/04/24-7-wall-st-most-popular-stores/8614949/

314,000

What institution has the most locations in the USA?

Strategic Implications of Prospect of Faith-Based Institutions Losing Federal Aid

Bottom Half StrategyJob prep/RoI focusIncrease automationChristian ecosystemMore international focusFocus on scaleCould benefit from CBEMore focus on the poor

Lose Federal Aid StrategyJob prep/RoI FocusIncrease automationChristian ecosystemMore international focusFocus on scaleCBE likely to allow CHEMore focus on the rich

Developing a bottom-half strategy also prepares for a world without federal aid.

Possible Christian Models of Disruptive Innovation Christian Mega-universities

◦ Liberty, Grand Canyon Competency Based Education

◦ Lipscomb University, DePaul University, Antioch School of Church Planting

Radically New Education Models◦ Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, City Vision

Christian Open Education (next slide) Investment and Outsourcing Companies

◦ Significant Systems, Capital Education Group, Bisk Education Global Innovators

◦ Global University Course Vendors & Clearinghouses

◦ Knowledge Elements, Bible Mesh, Learning House

Chr

istia

n (J

esus

)

Affordable (Justice)Innova

tion (T

ech)

Community Colleges

MOOCs & Open EdUdemy, Coursera, EdX, FuturelearnOpen2study, Udemy, Khan Academy, Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI

Christian Mega UniversitiesLiberty, Grand Canyon

Affordable Tech Sector

ChristianInnovation Sector

AffordableChristian SectorKey: Black Accredited. Orange Content Provider Green Community Partners

Competency BasedWestern GovernorsCollege for America

State Colleges

Christian Universitiesin Developing Countriesdaystar.ac.ke

Paid CoursewarePearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com, Skillshare, Pluralsight

Affordable Bible CollegesABHE Schools

Online Christian Universities

ACE CreditStraighterline, Saylor, Ed4OnlineEdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, SofiaUC Irvine Extension, Dream Degree

Christian Open EdChristianCourses.com, Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Openseminary.com BiblicalTraining.org, Harvestime.org, http://thirdmill.org, Christian CEU Providers

insight.org/CEU, lifepointemedia.com, lifeway.com/ceu, livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, precept.org/ceu, sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies, hristiancounselingceu.com

Paid Christian Wholesale Course ProvidersKnowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh, connect.ligonier.org, onlinesbs.org/esbs/

Bible InstitutesTUMI, NYDS

Open Textbookssaylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org, courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen collegeopentextbooks.org, open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/

Missions/Ministry TrainingMission Year, YWAM U Nations, IHOP U

Developing Country TechKepler.org, Avu.edu, elearningafrica.com,Coursera Learning Hub, MIT Ulabs, U of People, Pearson Affordable Learning

Training CentersQualifications Providers

Industry Map

Higher Ed in Developing Countries

Christian EmployersEmployer Paid Tuition Partners

Internship Sites70+ Ministries

Discipleship Study Centers(in churches and ministries)

Source: Our Kids, Robert Putnam

5 pt. decline

10 pt. decline

Gap Doublesto 10 points

5 point gap

Is a shortage of pastoral leadership among the poor affecting their church attendance?

Free, Low-Cost Christian Courses Free or Open Christian Content Providers

◦ Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, christianuniversity.org , Christian Leaders Institute, BiblicalTraining.org, harvestime.org

Aggregators of Christian Course Content: ◦ iTunes, Udemy, Alison.com, YouTube, Vimeo

Low Cost Christian CEU Providers◦ www.insight.org/CEU, www.lifepointemedia.com, www.lifeway.com/ceu, livingontheedge.org/home/

acsi/, www.precept.org/ceu, www.sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies , christiancounselingceu.com

Paid Course Material Wholesale Providers◦ Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh, connect.ligonier.org,

CUGN.org

http://open.biola.edu/

http://open.biola.edu/

http://www.covenantseminary.edu/resources/

http://luxvera.regent.edu/

http://luxvera.regent.edu/

http://christianuniversity.org/

https://www.christianleadersinstitute.org/

http://harvestime.org/

http://www.insight.org/CEU

http://www.lifepointemedia.com/

http://www.lifeway.com/ceu

http://livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/



http://www.precept.org/ceu

http://www.sampsonresources.com/

http://www.sampson.ed.com/

http://www.walkthru.org/ceu

http://www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses

https://www.bsfinternational.org/studies

http://christiancounselingceu.com/

Create Matrix Map of Divisions

Zimmerman, S., & Bell, J. (2014). The Sustainability Mindset: Using the Matrix Map to Make Strategic Decisions (1 edition). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

Example Matrix Map

Source: Zimmerman, S., & Bell, J. (2014). The Sustainability Mindset: Using the Matrix Map to Make Strategic Decisions (1 edition). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.Matrix Map is similar to Growth Share Matrix used in Business Strategy. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Growth%E2%80%93share_matrix&oldid=695752726

Who Has Jobs by Education?

Less

Than

High

Schoo

l Dipl

oma

High S

choo

l Gra

duat

e

Some C

olleg

e or A

ssoc

iate's

Bache

lor's

Degre

e0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

Source: StLouisFed FRED. May 2015

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=LNS11327662,LNS11327660,LNS11327659,LNS11327689,

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=LNS11327662,LNS11327660,LNS11327659,LNS11327689,

Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education

Does Technology Hurt or Help the Poor?

Ability of Institutional Models to Cross the Chasm and Serve the Unreached Bottom Half

Radically Accessible

Radically Affordable

Tech Innovator

Cultural Match

RemedialEducation

Disruptive Christian College

Community College & Mega-universities

Somewhat

For-Profit College VariesHigh-Priced Online VariesTraditional Christian CollegeState Schools

City Vision serves the bottom half socioeconomically (bottom 75% in graduate programs)

Blue Ocean Strategy and New Value Innovation Business

ModelsDr. Andrew Sears


[email protected]



Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas for Southwest Airlines

Overview of Blue Ocean Strategy and Value Innovation

Adaptive Learning and Competency Based Education


[email protected]



Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No Middle

Wor

ld’s

Bes

tLo

ng T

ail

Journalism Video Publishing Expertise Courses Credentialing

DisruptiveCompetencyBased Education

Traditional Degree

Sca

labi

lity

Low

-Tec

h H

igh-

Touc

h

Pace of PersonalizationMore Static Continuously Adaptive

Hig

h-Te

ch, L

ow-T

ouch

Face-to-Face Tutoring

Differentiated Instruction

Correspondence Courses

StaticMOOCs

Computer-Based Instruction

OnlineCourses

Mastery Learning CBE(Western Governors)

Adaptive CBE

PLA Portfolio

BlendedAdaptive(Khan Academy)

Credit By Exam

ClassroomInstruction

High-Fixed CostLow-Per Student Cost

Low-Fixed CostHigh-Per Student Cost

Mapping Modes of Education

Source: Initial Chart idea from Brian Flemming. (2015, May). Adaptive Learning: The Breakthrough Innovation Impacting Education Today. Eduventures Online Webinar. Retrieved from bit.ly/1HGerOS. Andrew Sears made many additions and changes to chart.