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Decision theory
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Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements
www.theevansgroupllc.com
Brian Wax
Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements
Chip Evans, Ph.D. www.theevansgroupllc.com
Physical Evidence
1. Much of today’s evidence supporting our belief systems stand as absolutes. Examples would be our laws of
physics and science as a whole that have determined the following to be correct
a. The earth is round
b. Gravity exists within a closed atmosphere
c. Thousands of examples prove the existence of our physical world
2. The above facts provide a model of technical advancement based on real, measurable and tangible events and
products
3. We develop words and phrases to articulate empirical facts. In fact, we rely on most of the physical world to be
where we exist. We live in homes that can be found through GPS coordinates etc.
4. Our world—earth and beyond are the parameters we live within since we simply cannot leave our planet
without the aforementioned technologies
Human Interaction
5. The self, is how we interact with the external realities—the above facts plus feeling of sensations cold, hot
euphoria and dysphoria, misinterpretation and bad directives. These sensations usually start with a biological
experience that says the temperature is cold, hot, or psychological manifestations of fear, anxiety and
depression
6. It is the melding of the internal processes with biological reactions that produces reactions leading to specific
outcomes/decisions—despite the know elements or factors impinging upon cogent decision making
7. Conclusion: A duality exists that allows us to see how the self interrelates from an external focus (Physical
Evidence) with personal reactions including the spiritual/emotional realm
8. As a result we are subject to all types of input that help us guide the ever increasing technology and complexity
a. Religious, spiritual combined with mandates from management and the need to survive.
9. Pedagogical models/methods teach and tell us how to think. We are subject to marketing and other influences
that drive irrational behaviors
10. If the external self the integrates with internal, community decision making becomes more effective due to
comprehensive awareness, analysis and finally action
System Definition
www.thefreedictionary.com/system
TheFreeDictionary.com
A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent elements forming a complex whole. 2. A
functionally related group of elements inter-related and interacting creating a higher degree of
function or dysfuntion such as feedback loops
Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements
Chip Evans, Ph.D. www.theevansgroupllc.com
Systemic External Definition of Self
Factors influencing
our perception
Religion
Politics
Job expectations
Education
Peers
Adversaries
Marketing of
products
Risk
External
formulation of
self
Creation of action
oriented behavior
Rote Response(s)
Do as instructed
Response
according self
Reject
Accept
Redirect
Outcomes, Results and
consequences
External Self External Self
External Self
External Self
Integration
Synthesis of
Experience
Community/Team/
System/Organization
Output/
Review
Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements
Chip Evans, Ph.D. www.theevansgroupllc.com
I/We=integration of the internal self (emotional feeling self)
I/WeDecisions
Project Plans
Family
Peer Pressure
PoliticsEconomics
Relationships
Infidelity
Unrealistic
deadlines
Inside the integrated self is where the
turbulence is created. It can be a
cacophony of thought in conflict driven
by complexity
Who are you in relation to all of the
external complexity?
How do you discern any direction? How
do you make sense of things
What is best
for the I/we
Factors influencing
our perception
Religion
Politics
Adversaries
Success
Risk
Community
Relationships
Rethinking how we relate to Community, Ourselves and finally the I/We
Understand
the external
Self
Understand the
relationship between
Ext. Self and
community
Internalize
and filter
Status quo:
{Enter status
quo here}
{Enter
desired
outcome
here}
Desired
outcome:
{Enter
restraining
forces here}
Driving
forces
Restraining
forces
{Enter
driving
forces here}
Force Field Analysis
Cause/Effect Analysis
Work through
course of action
Feelings,
morals, social
impact
Factual Spiritual Optimum Course of Action
Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements
Chip Evans, Ph.D. www.theevansgroupllc.com
Listening to the I/We
1. Mindfulness
a. Sharing
b. Coaching
c. Influencing
Definitions
1. Self = The person in the world
2. “I” =Person/self interrelating with the world
3. We” = the self in community with others
4. I/we = the I interrelating creating I/we as seen within the “We”
5. Iwee, (IWEE) = self seeing the world internally within the community
6. Best course of action