1. + CONTEMPORARY REGIONAL SCENARIOS JAN MAY 2015 LRI. Anglica
Ruiz Len
2. + Module 2 2.1 International Systems 2.2 Centripetal and
Centrifugal Forces
3. + 2.1 International Systems
4. Models of International System Structures One pole of power.
The central power establishes and enforces rules and dominates
military and economic instruments. UNIPOLAR Large power Small power
Dominant link Short term or potential link 1992 1997 U.S.
Dominance
5. Models of International System Structures Two poles of
power. Hostility between the two poles is the main characteristic
of a bipolar system. Each of them tries to eliminate the other bloc
by undermning it if possible and by fighting it if necessary. The
risks are acceptable. In order to increase power it is necessary to
bring new members into your bloc, and preventing others from jining
the rival bloc. BIPOLAR 1947- 1991 COLD WAR
6. Triangular relationship. Optimally trying to have good
relations with both other players, or minimally try to avoid having
hostile relations with both other players. Try to prevent close
cooperation between the other two players. TRIPOLAR SYSTEM
Prevention of good relations between other two players Models of
International System Structures Maybe today EU, USA, Asia
7. Four or more poles. The rules of the game are to oppose any
actor or alliance that threatens to become hegemonic. This is also
the central principle of balance-of- power politics. Optimally
increase power and minimally preserve power. MULTIPOLAR BALLANCE OF
POWER Models of International System Structures 1815 - 1914 Maybe
today.
8. + New World Order Theories After the Cold War (1991 today),
there was severe rearrangements in relationships and global power
centers; movements that still occur in the present. In the new
reality, various theories have emerged about the new world order.
We will discuss some of the most relevant
9. + The end of History -- Fukuyama In 1989, in an article
entitled "The End of History" published in "The National Interest"
the philosopher Francis Fukuyama argued that, taking into account
the fall of the Berlin Wall, the disintegration of the Soviet Union
and the gradual entry China the global capitalist economic
environment, it was evident that the capitalist liberalism
prevailed. It was a matter of time that all countries adopt this
model, which would end the great conflict.
10. + Today, nearly 25 years after the fall of the USSR, it is
known that there is no unanimity by the "end of history". The
Neoliberalism (or free capitalism) allowed the emergence of
prosperous societies, but is still unable to process the number of
conflicts that remain. The Global neoliberalism can create as many
conflicts as it solves and does not necessarily lead to more
prosperous and ordered societies. There are other forces (religious
fundamentalism, nationalism) that are outside the traditional
ideological confrontations, and whose actions can not process or
assimilate neoliberalism easier and faster. The end of History -
FAILURES POVERTY PERSISTS IN A FREE CAPITALIST WORLD!!
11. + Tripolar world This theory stated that the world of the
twenty-first century would be defined by the imposed order from
three poles of political and military economic power and its
peripheral regions of influence. They are based on the importance
of trade blocs how the economy is globalized. These three poles
are: The American (U.S.A.): the nations of NAFTA Fundamentally USA
and Canada, having Latin America as a peripheral region of
influence. The European pole: constituted by the European Union,
having as peripheral regions of influence to the Balkans, Africa,
the Middle East and Russia. The polo Dragons: consisting Japan
China South Korea and Taiwan, having as the peripheral regions to
the rest of Asia
12. + The criticisms of this model are multiple: Ignores such
place that can occupy India, the second most populous country on
earth, where it has been conducting an equivalent to China's
economic revolution. Likewise speak of a consolidated in the Far
East polo tries to ignore that each of these countries has its own
policies and interests China's relations with Japan and Taiwan are
often very tense. On the other hand consider that pole like a
single, solid entity has no relation to reality. Tripolar world -
FAILURES
13. + The clash of civilization -- Hungtington In 1993 in an
article entitled The Clash of Civilizations" in Foreign Affairs,
Samuel Huntington argues that the world is divided into cultural
and religious backgrounds who have followed different trends and
are going to confront in the future. Huntington predicted that the
main impact will be between the Christian Western civilization and
Islamic civilization.
14. + The definition of civilizations is questionable, for
example Huntington speaks of Latin American civilization without
considering the enormous diversity among indigenous majority
countries (Bolivia and Guatemala); the mostly mestizos (Mexico) and
mostly creoles (Argentina and Chile). Also talking about African
civilization is a simplification and failed vision. There is not a
theoretical basis for conceptualizing the term civilization,
weakening the main approach of the theory. The Civilization concept
revolves mainly around religion but also integrates economic
elements, Ex: we cant say Latin American civilization is equal to
the European- Christian civilization. The clash of civilization --
FAILURES
15. + As can be seen the three previous theories are not enough
to set an accurate vision of the new world order.
16. + 2.2 Centripetal and Centrifugal Forces
17. + Centripetal and Centrifugal Forces This model considers
that the main contemporary conflicts and structures of the
international system depend on the tensions and balances among the
countries. According to the physical principles, centrifugal forces
are those that tend to disperse, and centripetal forces are those
that tend to unite or cohere.
18. + C&C Forces Model Centripetal Economic blocs Colective
security organizations Globalization and neoliberalism Centrifugal
Nationalism Alterglobalization Fundamentalism Terrorism
19. + Centripetal Forces (Integration) Economic blocs: free
commere among its memers, lower arancels, markets growth and market
diversification. Free flow of merchandise, investment, services and
sometimes populations.
20. +Collective security organizations: The only collective
security organization that persists nowadays is NATO (North
Atlantic Treaty Organization) formed by the USA, Canada and Western
Europe. During the Cold War, Warsaw Pact was another example. The
first effective military operation for NATO was a collective attack
in Afghanistan after Sept. 11, 2001. Today, many critics say there
is no need for the existence of NATO, since its major enemy (Warsaw
Pact) has disappeared.
21. + Globalization and neoliberalism: The concept of
Globalization includes many aspects of the contemporary life, such
as economics, culture, society and politics. Lifestyles
standardization Global instant communications Cultural
manifestations: music, cinema, Consumerism and products expansion
Massive expression of public opinion Global markets
22. + Nationalism: it is the seek of a nation for creating
their own state or to be recognized with an especific status.
Sesession: a nation or territory pretends to separate from a state,
in order to create a new independent state Quebec in Canada
Irredetism: a states tries to incorporate populations of its same
nation (culture), that are located in another country Chechenia in
Pakistan / India Autonomism: a nation pretends to have a special
status, acording to its characteristics (culture) but without
trying to become an independent country. Kurds in Turkey Tamils in
Sri Lanka CENTRIFUGAL FORCES (Dispersion)
23. + Alterglobalism: it considers that there is not a single
globalized world, but there is a diversity of traditions and
lifestiles. Big Multinationals (MNCs) are devasting the world
resources. Defend diversity: cultural, lingistic, biodiversity, and
even food diversity.. Protests against the most powerful countries.
Tend to be anarquical and against industrialization.
24. + Fundamentalism: strict interpretation of the religious or
ideological texts. It includes also political intentions. Christian
fundamentalism Muslim fundamentalism Marxism Terrorism: It works as
a tool or a way for a small group of individuals that pretend
political interests and use violence in order to get them.
Generally attack against civilians, with the interest of creating a
state of panic, and taking control of their institutions.
