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"Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security" presented by Sherman Robinson at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
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Challenges and Projectionsfor Global Agriculture
and Food SecuritySherman Robinson and the Impact Team
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)April 2014
www.ifpri.org
Outline
IFPRI’s baseline projections: • Drivers of agricultural growth• The IMPACT Model• Data for Central Asia• Base scenario results
Climate challenges (IPCC 2014) AgMIP results (PNAS 2014) The role of technologies (Rosegrant et al. 2014)
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Drivers of Agricultural Growthand Food Security
Demand drivers• Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050
• Urbanization: 50% in 2008, 78% in 2050
• Income growth
• Oil prices
• Biofuels and bioenergy
• Conservation and biodiversity
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Rapid income growth and urbanization – effects on diets and patterns of agricultural production• Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables• Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains
for feed • Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods• Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils• Half of growth in grain demand will be for
Livestock feed• Increased pressure on land and water
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fast_food_(282678968).jpg
Drivers of Agricultural Growthand Food Security
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Supply drivers• Climate change• Water and land scarcity• Investment in infrastructure• Investment in agricultural
research• Policy
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
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The IMPACT Model
International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
Global partial equilibrium model • Food model• Water models• Crop models• Malnutrition model
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IMPACT Model – Schematic
8
Hydrology Model Water Basin
Management Model Water Stress Model Multimarket Model:
crops, sugar, oilseeds, livestock/meat
SPAM - Spatial Production Allocation Model
Land-Use Model DSSAT Crop Models Biofuel Model Livestock Model
IMPACT Suite of Models
IMPACT version 3
159
• Countries
154
• Water Basins
320
• Food Production Units
• 58 Agricultural commodities
9
Production, Exports and Imports in Central Asia
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Central Asia’s Shares ofGlobal Cotton Exports
About Tableau maps: www.tableausoftware.com/mapdata
Uzbekistan13.4%
Turkmenistan3.8% Tajikistan
2.5%
Kyrgyzstan0.7%
Kazakhstan2.5%
National Exports as a Percent of Global Exports
11
Cotton Yields in Central Asia
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Country Yield Ratio # Regions
Kazakhstan 80.3 7
Kyrgyzstan 95.6 2
Tajikistan 63.0 1
Turkmenistan 65.8 3
Uzbekistan 86.0 2Ratio to global average (%), FAO Data, average for 2004-2006. Regions: water basins
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Change in World Prices of Cereals between 2010 and 2030
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
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Change in World Prices of Meats between 2010 and 2030
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
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World Crop AreaBaseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
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World Crop Yields Annual Average Growth Rate
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
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Sources of Cereal Production Growth 2010 - 2030
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
What about climate change?
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 4(B), 31Mar2014
Global annual average surface temperature
23
Historical climate change impacts on yields1960-2013
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 2(C), 31Mar2014 24
Projected climate change impacts on yields
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7, Figure 7-7, 31Mar2014 25
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Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2050
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
(MIROC/A1B)
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Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
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Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100)
Wheat Maize Rice0
50
100
150
200
2502010 2050 no CC 2050 CC
Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
31
Price increase scenario results (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography, IMPACT 2010
Minimum and maximum effect from four climate
scenarios
33
Alternate perspectives on price scenarios 2004-2050, OECD comparison 2011 (perfect mitigation)
IMPACT had substantially greater price increases than LEITAP or ENVISAGE
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The role of agricultural technologies
• Baseline to 2050, including climate change
• Linked crop models and economic models
• Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat
• Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)35
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Price effects of technologies
36
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Impacts on Food Security
37
