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Presented at the Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008
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BFP‐ANDES– Leader: Mark Mulligan, KCL– Coordinator: Jorge Rubiano, UNAL
• WP1(POV): G Hyman A Farrow G Lema (CIAT)WP1(POV): G. Hyman, A. Farrow, G. Lema (CIAT)• WP2(AVAIL): M. Mulligan (KCL), J..G. Leon (UNAL)• WP3(PROD): M. Kirby (CSIRO), J. Selvaraj (UNAL)• WP4(INST): D. White (CIAT), V. Vargas (UNAL)
WP5(INTERV) M S i (CONDESAN BC) i l CP j• WP5(INTERV) M. Saravia (CONDESAN,BC), incl. prev. CP projects• WP6(KNOW): N. Niederhauser (CIAT) • + tied PhD, MSc and UG students
AIM: To have the best available science used in the formulation and testing of land and water policy for better livelihoods in cases where currently it is notbetter livelihoods, in cases where currently it is not
Brief for presentation:
– What Andes BFP is intended to achieve? And for whom?
– Expected Research products
– How you intend to get outputs?
Team Experience
• Extensive knowledge of the region• Poverty mapping and analysis
• Water accounting and productivityWater accounting and productivity
• Institutions and interventionsL l t k h ld d t k• Local stakeholders and networks
• Spatial hydrological modelling and GIS
• Global datasets• Policy support systems and knowledgePolicy support systems and knowledge systems
Water related issues and basins
FUQUENE
Deforestation (F,A,T,AL,J)Erosion/Sedimentation (F,L,A,E,T,AL,J)Pollution (F E J) FUQUENE
ANGEL
LA MIEL
Pollution (F,E,J)Loss of biodiversity (F,L,AL,J)Ecosystem degradation (A,E) Contamination (F,L)
AMBATO
ALTOMAYO
SG505SG510
Water scarcity (A,T,J)Poor institutional framework and
infrastructure (A,T,AL)Poverty lack of education (A TAL)
JEQUETEPEQUE
SG510Poverty, lack of education (A,T,AL)Water use and management (E)Natural hazards (T)Low productivity (AL)
TUNARI
Basin(s) Context• High but variable rainfall steep slopes spatial• High but variable rainfall, steep slopes, spatial heterogeneity, climate change
• Poverty sometimes related to lack of water, sometimes of y ,excess water:– Hazards to productivity : (landslides, soil erosion/degradation, nutrient losses)nutrient losses)
– Downstream impacts : (sedimentation, water quality losses, flooding, supply to major cities)
.... with impacts on health and poverty sometimes through food.
• Competing land‐use demands on steep‐lands E i ti d d j d j t i t b i• Existing and proposed major dam projects, inter‐basin transfers, mining...
• Payments for environmental services and other non ag.Payments for environmental services and other non ag. livelihood options
‘Clients’
• Farmers, (basin) communities, interested citizensa e s, (bas ) co u t es, te ested c t e s• Local government (policy advisors)• National government (policy advisors)National government (policy advisors)• Universities, research orgs (e.g. IDEAM)• Commercial : Water/HEP companiesCommercial : Water/HEP companies• International Conservation NGOs (CI, WWF, TNC)• International organisations (CP/CGIAR CAREInternational organisations (CP/CGIAR,CARE, Oxfam)
• International donors (WB, IADB,DfID,GTZ..)International donors (WB, IADB,DfID,GTZ..)
The problem with research:
After Briggs and Smithson (1985)
“Th h h l d th“The researchers … have already thrown much darkness on this subject, and it is probable that if they continue [their investigations] we shall soon know nothinginvestigations] we shall soon know nothing at all about it. “ (Mark Twain)
‘Client’ NeedsUnintended consequences
• Simplification of a complex problem• Accessible baseline data and information• Accessible baseline data and information• Accessible tools for testing effects of alternative policy options (interventions) and their intended and unintended consequences
• Accessible knowledge on impacts of climate change ibl k l d f ( l) d• Accessible knowledge of (seasonal) downstream
impacts of land use change on water supply to cities/dams/
• Accessible spatial planning tools for optimisation in a highly heterogeneous and connected environment
• An Institutional framework for evidence‐based policy implementation
Products• Capacity built in local institutions/stakeholders (and• Capacity built in local institutions/stakeholders (and networks e.g. CONDESAN)
• Students engaged and trained• Students engaged and trained• Report diagnosing current status of water poverty, water productivity environmental security andwater productivity, environmental security and social and institutional context incl. gender
• Maps of long term average water availability and• Maps of long term average water availability and trends
• Maps of resource sensitivity to land use and• Maps of resource sensitivity to land use and climate change
• Maps of the poverty outcomes of changing access• Maps of the poverty outcomes of changing access to water
www.ambiotek.com/fiesta
A research model : FIESTA : contribution of cloud forests to runoff in the Southern Andes (%)
Products• Maps of the sensitivity of food production to climate (variability and change) and land use change
D b f i i i d i i j• Database of institutions and intervention projectsand likely outcomes of a range of these in the basin
S f i t f t t d t f• Summary of points of contact and types of data/information required by institutions
• Andes BFP portal on IDIS• Andes BFP portal on IDIS
M h f th b i t t d i tMuch of the above integrated into:
• CPWF‐ANDES PSS (Web‐based Policy Support System) for impact assessment of policySystem) for impact assessment of policy interventions (bilingual)
Why a PSS?Premise is that policies are better when based on the science (naturalPremise is that policies are better when based on the science (natural and social), so how do we get the analysts to look at the science? ‐make it easy.
What is a PSS (Policy Support System) : •combines best available data and knowledge of process (models),•integrated spatial database and test‐bed for user policies or interventions•leaving the simplest possible messages without losing the important•leaving the simplest possible messages without losing the important complexity of the data and the science,• flexible and dynamic project legacy in addition to static data and
bli tipublications,•Visual and informative to a wide range of audiences, a learning and thinking tool•Clearly defined output requiring specific inputs (sub‐models) from each WP in the BFP,
Like science in general most classic PSS are poorly used in the policy
CPWF ANDES BFP PSS : ApproachLike science in general, most classic PSS are poorly used in the policy frameworkWhy?
th t dd th d‐ they may not address the end users concerns‐ they are technically difficult to work with‐ they are insufficiently visualh h f f d li i h i‐ they have few or poor means of dealing with uncertainty
‐ they require a lot of data
The CPWF‐ANDES PSS APPROACH‐ link tightly with institutions and interventions at design stage‐Web and geobrowser‐based, simple scenarios (models may be
complex but outputs are simple)‐ Using visual power of Google Earth etc.‐ Uncertainty analyses inbuilt – results grey out as uncertainty
increases‐ Self‐parameterising for any basin by connection to KCL geodata portal
An Example : The DserveA model
Testing complete March 2008Testing complete March 2008
Embedded geobrowser interface, self‐parameterising, ‘global extent, local scale’, online, always up to date, results shared with stakeholder community
Interaction with science tailored to different user types
Community modelling, GEOWIKI for choice of study area and addition of data
Self‐parameterising if no local data available : user can add data if available
Connects to KCL Geoportal (www.kcl.ac.uk/geodata) global datasets e.g. CSI‐SRTM derived flowlines above
Outputs as maps : e.g. Precipitation e.g. Actual evapotranspiration
Outputs as timeseries for points or areas....
e.g. Runoff
Proposed system diagram for Andes BFP PSS....
Water and climateScenariosClimate
Markets (prices)Population
Indicators of wellbeing and poverty
Ag. Profit and loss
Climate
W t Runoff Population Environmental flowsWater availabilityWater quality
Nature conservation
Water balance
Erosion
Runoff
Farmer decision making
Nature conservationContamination
Ag. Productivityg
InterventionsLand use planning
Ecosystem protectionDams
Crop growth
Land use
DamsIrrigation
Water transferPES
Yield Crop type
Soil management (e.g. fertilisers)Slope management (e.g. slope
reduction)
Livestock (grazing)
Yield Ag. Profit and loss
Th kThank you