Policies & Air-Sea Context

Australia in its Regional Context: Defence

“Defending Australia and its interests”Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030. Defence White Paper 2009.

A Secure Australia• Defence against direct armed attack• Control of the air-sea gap• Over-the-horizon radar

A Secure Immediate Neighbourhood• Ensure stability and cohesion of our nearest neighbours• Particular concern for continued democratization and stability of Indonesia

Strategic Stability in the Asia-Pacific Region• Prevent hostile use of northern approaches• Protect access to trade and critical resources• Peaceful resolution of problems• Improved regional security architecture• Continued role for the USA

A Stable, Rules-Based Global Security Order• restraining aggression by states against each other• proliferation of WMD, terrorism• state fragility and failure• intra-state conflict• climate change and resource scarcity

2015 White Paper• months overdue (as of Sept. 2015)• Focus on rebuilding the Navy• Submarines• Drones & UAVs• $100 billion worth of equipment purchases

ADO Budget • Australian Government allocated A$24.2 billion to the Australian Defence Organisation in the 2012–2013 financial year

= 1.56% GDP= 6.65% Gov’t expenditure= 10.5% lower than that in the 2010-2011 budget in real terms= lowest share of GDP since 1938

• The 2009 defence white paper included a commitment to increase defence spending by 3% in real terms each year over a 21 year period. This is a response to Australia's perception of its region and strategic environment as being more complex.• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that Australia's defence spending in 2010 was the 13th highest of any country in purchasing power parity terms• As a proportion of GDP, Australia's defence spending ranks as 57th of the countries for which data is available

ADO Composition 2010-2011 Fin. Yr.Service Permanent Active Reserve TotalNavy 14,215 2,150 16,365

Army 30,235 16,900 47,135

Air Force 14,573 2,800 17,375

Total 59,023 21,850 80,873

Additionally:• 22,166 inactive members of the Standby Reserve• 20,656 civilian Australian Public Service staff• 675 contractors

Significant Australian Defence Bases

HQJOC

Australia’s Operational Defence Environment

• Between 80° East and 180° East

• Between the Equator and Antarctica

• > 12% of Earth’s surface

• Range of an F/A-18 with external fuel tanks is ~2000 km

Australia’s Strategy Spectrum

Expeditionary Forward Defence• Broader National interests• Offshore, dispersed• Indirect, remote threats• Inexpensive, shared resources• Military contributions to

coalitions – attendant compromises

Self-reliant Continental Defence• Protecting sovereignty and

territorial integrity• Makes use of Australia’s

geography• Expensive, national resources• Joint ADF operations

Asia-Pacific Geography & Strategic Thinking

SECT Paradigm

1) The politics of Sovereignty – role of nations and states

2) The distribution of Economics – especially control of natural resources

3) The role of symbolic Culture – geographic icons (natural or constructed)

4) The contests around Territory – struggle for internal and external physical space and trade/communication lines

The Great Southern Ocean

L: Mineral resources in Antarctica

R: Marine resources in Antarctica

A Role for the RAN?

The Indian Ocean - An International Space

• 4 continents• 48 states• Diversity in wealth• Diversity in levels of

development• 18 island territories• Extensive exclusive

economic zones• ~ 2.6 billion people

Trade RoutesSea Lines of Communication

• Cheap and flexible

• Relatively secure• 3 main routes• 2009: 25.4%

world oil supply from Gulf

• 2030: 27.8% world oil supply from Gulf

• Geopolitical vulnerabilities

Great Power Interests and Bases

• Strategic presence of powerful states

• Great powers concerned with securing national maritime interests

• US: control or presence at all 3 chokepoints

An Australian base on the Cocus Islands?

R: Submarine operation zone from proposed Cocus Is. FOB

L: Current Australian submarine operational zone

The Pacific

• NAFTA includes USA, Canada, and Mexico• ASEAN includes Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,

Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.• MERCOSUR includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuala

New Chinese Naval Doctrine

Traditional doctrine: Land-based continental defence

3 step modernisation strategy:1. First island chain2. Second island chain3. Global navy by 2050

New doctrine (2010):Far sea defence but still a distant goal

China the “pacing challenge” but not the only, or most likely, A-A/AD threat the surface forces will face

Scenario 1: US-Sino-Indian Security Dilemma

India• Fears encirclement• Historical suspicion

China• Fear containment• Energy/food security

US• Policy of domination• Historically ‘hawkish’

Scenario 2: A New “Great Game”21st C strategic rivalry• Balance of power

shift• Great power war?

China• Growing influence

India• Balance vs. China?• Pivot state supreme?

USA• External power• Democratic alliance?

Scenario 3: Multilateral Cooperation

• Necessitates respect, compromise and sharing of power

• Bilateral cooperation

• Multilateral forums• Multilateral

Cooperation• Anti-piracy• Disaster relief• Trade flourishes